All of the big names are in for Roland Garros 2015 on the men’s side of the draw, and some players are entering the French Open with high hopes, and full of confidence, while others should be dreading the misery that could befall them on the famed red clay in Paris, after poor results in lead up to the French. This article will take a look at those with high hopes, who could exceed expectations, and its’ companion piece will look at names that could struggle.
ATP Form Tracker: Roland Garros 2015 Players on the Rise
Hot:
5: Dominic Thiem
The 21 year old who is at his best on clay entered the season with an illness, and he was clearly in poor shape, which hampered his results in the beginning part of 2015, but he’s now starting to round into form right in time for the French. Thiem just won his maiden ATP title in a battle against Leonardo Mayer in Nice and he has wins over John Isner, and Fabio Fognini in recent weeks on clay. Since dropping two straight matches at the start of the European clay court season, and looking to be miserable on court, Thiem has gone on a streak of 9 wins with just two losses, and given he’s beaten top players such as Stan Wawrinka on clay before, he uld pose a threat in the draw, though fatigue may hamper his chances. Thiem will need to defeat Aljaz Bedene, accomplished clay courter Pablo Cuevas, and then most likely Gael Monfils to reach the second week. It’s a tough draw, but for a non-seeded player you can’t count him out.
4: Tomas Berdych
Berdych has been dominant against all but the big four this year, as he has yet to lose to a player not named Nadal, Federer, Djokovic, or Murray, with the exception of a loss to Stan Wawrinka in Rotterdam. Perhaps due in part to the fact he tends to play a difficult schedule of only the top tier events, he doesn’t have an ATP title this season, but he hasn’t lost before the quarterfinals of any event, including the AO, and the Masters events thus far. He reached the final in Monte Carlo, and the semis in Madrid and I’m unsure why he’s not the favorite to reach the semifinals out of his quarter.
The big hitting Czech could be tested by Fabio Fognini in round 3, an opponent who he snuck past in a third set tiebreak in Rome, and then Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and the popular Kei Nishikori are also likely roadblocks, but his draw could be worse, and he’s been focused, lethal, and consistent, when he doesn’t have the mental block of playing a big four player. Nishikori hasn’t had a bad season by any stretch of the imagination, but it hasn’t been as good as the on Berdych has compiled, and he isn’t getting enough credit for the feat that he has accomplished this season. Given that he’s a multi-surface talent, and his power game translates well on almost any court, he very well could keep this quarterfinal or better streak up through the rest of the season. Should Roger Federer fall in the bottom half, Berdych has a great chance to reach another Grand Slam final.
3: John Isner
The American #1 Isner is unlikely to get past Andy Murray to reach the quarterfinals, but he has put together a consistent, accomplished, and most of all healthy, clay court season this spring, and that bodes well for his chances to repeat at reaching the second week of the French, like he did last year. Isner comes off the semis in Nice, he also reached the quarters in Madrid, and took a set off of Nadal in Monte Carlo. His return and rallying game seems to be improved enough on clay, that it compliments his serve and is helping him win matches, most of all he’s playing with confidence in himself and his game on court right now.
Andreas Seppi, who has beaten him on clay before, and likely David Goffin in round 3 both represent possible banana peels that could slip him up, especially if he gets pushed into a grueling five setter, but it’s likely he will get his crack at Murray, and a chance at revenge for his loss to the UK #1 in Davis Cup play. I don’t see him winning that, but you simply never know with Isner’s serve, if he can force some tiebreaks, and keep the pressure on his opponent, perhaps Murray’s own serve will break down and give him a chance.
2: Thomaz Bellucci
Bellucci has the same problem as Thiem has, a difficult draw, and the fatigue factor of playing a lot of matches in the week before a slam, which never seems to bode well for a players chance to go deep. Bellucci has been on the quite the tear though this spring, the big hitting Brazilian has kept his mental demons in check and in addition to winning the title in Geneva, he reached the quarters in Istanbul, and qualified for both Madrid and Rome, taking a set off of eventual champion Novak Djokovic in Rome, and giving him his toughest match in that tournament. Bellucci has all the talent needed to excel, especially on clay, but at times the wheels can come off, and as mentioned his mental game isn’t particularly strong, that said he’s produced some drama filled moments before, including in Davis Cup, and the Brazilian #1 will be looking to reach the second week of a slam for just the second time, the other time he did so also coming in Paris.
Kei Nishikori looms large in round 2, but the Japanese #1 has struggled with pressure before in slams, and the best of 5 format doesn’t tend to do him a lot of favors. I would be more willing to pick Bellucci if here were fresh, but all the same expect an interesting round 2 encounter, that could propel the Brazilian in to the second week.
1: Andy Murray
Murray, having never previously won a title on clay, is 10-0 this season the surface, 10-0 since getting married, and has now won two titles on clay in his career, including the Madrid Masters, a feat that hardly anyone could have predicted. Murray’s coaching team of Mauresmo and Bjorkman seems to be paying dividends, especially when it comes to his movement, shot placement, and ball striking on clay, and though luck has played a bit of a factor in his great results this year, he’s still shown consistent improvement on clay in recent year, and has to be considered an outside contender to reach the final, and perhaps even win the title if carnage occurs in the top half of the draw that features Djokovic and Nadal in the same quarter.
Murray has twice reached the semis in Paris, and it’s been a favorable event to him, including last year, the issue has been getting up to the level that Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, and even Ferrer tend to be at on clay. In general Murray has struggled to win matches against Roger, and especially Novak, who he hasn’t beaten since having back surgery. He just beat Rafa in Madrid though, and perhaps that will inspire him to believe that he can pull it off against the other big 4 players. Murray will need to get past fiery teen Nick Kyrgios, Isner, and likely David Ferrer, a player he has never beaten on clay before to reach the semis, but I have him penciled in to reach his third French Open semifinal.
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