When you think of players who are likely to win the French Open, who comes to mind? Well of course Rafael Nadal and the other big names lik Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, and Roger Federer. After that you probably think of Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori, and Grigor Dimitrov. But then who? Could someone completely unexpected to win Roland Garros actually win Roland Garros?
Maybe the leader of the pack, when it comes to American men’s tennis, John Isner? Now, before you laugh and push his name under the rug, let’s look at his stats in 2015.
Isner has had for the most part a solid start to the season. Minus losing his opening matches in Delray Beach and Houston, he has played relatively well. In fact, Isner has lost just once to a player outside the top ten since mid February.
A problem throughout Isner’s career is he has struggled with consistency, especially against players ranked lower than him which has led to a lot of early exists in tournaments. That has changed so far this season. Isner is 13-5 against players he has played with a lower ranking than him.
In 2014, Isner lost in his opening match on eight different occasions and then reached at least the quarter-finals of tournaments on eight different occasions. It’s either an early exit or a solid tournament run for Isner; the consistency was not there.
In 2015, the American has tried to right the ship. For the first time in his career he has won at least two matches at each of the ATP Masters 1000 tournaments. He has reached at least the quarter-finals of two Masters 1000 tournaments this early in the year for the first time in his career and it is also the first time since 2012 he has reached at least the quarter-finals of two Masters 1000 tournaments in an entire season.
With these impressive showings at the Masters tournaments he has had to beat quality opponents. Isner has picked up wins against Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori, and Grigor Dimitrov. Along with the wins he has looked impressive in losses against other top opponents as he pushed Rafael Nadal and Tomas Berdych to three sets, both matches came on the clay.
In Isner’s most recent match against Nadal in Rome though, he didn’t look nearly as impressive, but that was mostly because of Nadal’s great play. Isner had zero break point opportunities which is really not that surprising, considering he was up against the “King of Clay.”
Nevertheless, this is still the best Isner has ever played on the clay in his career. He already has nine wins on the clay this year, the most he has ever had in one season in his career. It can be argued with these stats that Isner’s current form could be good enough for him to go on a run at Roland Garros.
And if his current form isn’t enough to inspire him to play well in Paris, he has some positive memories in the past he can draw from as well. At the 2011 French Open in the first round he took Nadal to five sets and had a 2-1 set lead at one point. Then there was his Davis Cup win over Roger Federer on clay in four sets back in 2012. These results prove he is very much capable of standing toe to toe with the tour’s top players on clay.
It also helps that the clay fits Isner’s game. He is not one of the best movers on court, and that’s putting it mildly, but because the clay slows the ball down it gives Isner that extra time to make a quality shot. On top of that the high bounce the clay produces fits his 6’10 stature.
The one issue Isner could have is he may be wearing himself down by playing so much before Paris. Isner has played both Madrid and Rome, and is now playing in Nice. That is three straight weeks of play and if he wants to go far at Roland Garros he will be playing in five consecutive weeks. We already saw Andy Murray pull out of Rome due to fatigue so this is not something to just toss to the side.
He has shown consistency and strong play against top players which was not with him last year. So, can Isner win the French Open? It’s not likely, but don’t be surprised if you see him reach the quarterfinals or even the semifinals in Paris. If he did reach at least the quarterfinals, it would be the first time since Andre Agassi in 2003 that an American would be in the last eight.
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