As we approach the 2015 French Open, an interesting question looms, could a Qualifier Reach the Second Week of the French Open?
Some players who you would usually expect to progress without much difficulty are struggling this year. Names like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Marin Cilic have had slow comebacks from injuries. The qualifiers when they have made it to the main draw will have had at least three matches on the courts, whilst the seeds and direct main draw entrants will have only practiced on the Roland Garros surface. This makes qualifiers dangerous in the first couple of rounds, as they will be used to the conditions of the courts, the balls and the bounce.
Any of the struggling seeds this year could be in danger from a qualifier, although we do not know where they will be placed in the draw, if they are on form and play well, this could certainly be the best chance for one or more of the qualifiers to land their biggest pay day so far. It’s unlikely if they come up against one of the top seeds that the qualifier could get past them and move into the 2nd week, but much more of an option against an out of sorts player or one lacking in confidence or returning from injury and therefore not having had much match practise, with the withdrawal of Milos Raonic, Julien Benneteau and Janko Tipsarevic this opens up 19 spots from the qualification rounds, with 16 winners and 3 lucky loser spots.
The furthest a qualifier has progressed at the US Open is the Quarter finals, when 2008 Gilles Muller landed in the 2nd week of a grand slam. There have been other qualifiers who have made it as far as the 3rd round in the US Open including Briton Dan Evans who stunned the at the time #12 Kei Nishikori.
With Stan Wawrinka losing to an unseeded player in the quarter finals of ATP 250 Geneva, his indifferent form has continued and he’s a player who could lose in a shock, like he did last year to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. A qualifier coming up against Nadal, however, is a different prospect. Although his form has been off lately, Nadal seems to flourish at Roland Garros over 5 sets, and even with his confidence not at its highest, a qualifier drawn against him will not make it to the 2nd week.
In 2014, qualifier Facundo Bagnis upset Julian Benneteau 18-16 in the 5th set at Roland Garros, so even if a qualifier doesn’t make a deep run, they could still produce a memorable match or two.
Roland Garros and Wimbledon are probably the very best chance a qualifier will have of making round 2, even with the extra week between the two slams now, there is not that much time for a struggling higher ranked player to recover from any early exits at the French Open and gain confidence for Wimbledon.
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