As the regular season has come to an end, Last Word On Sports analyzes every playoff series. In the first installment, we take a look at the matchups in five categories: Offense, defense, goaltending, coaching and special teams. We also run down the players to look out for and give our final assessment on how the series will pan out. In the second portion, we will analyze what went down in the series, how the matchups led to the outcome and cover all important storylines.
Both of these teams should feel very familiar with each other.
The New York Rangers lost two key players in their championship run last season to free agency; power forward Brian Boyle and steady defenseman Anton Stralman both were plucked by the Tampa Bay Lightning. On the flip side, the New York Rangers gave up their captain, Ryan Callahan, in exchange for then-Tampa Bay captain Martin St. Louis at the trade deadline before the Rangers went on their run. So, it is only fitting that the only team standing in the way of the defending Eastern Conference Champions is the same Tampa Bay Lightning.
Let’s take a look at the match-up in depth.
Offense:
Tampa Bay
Warning: Steven Stamkos is alive. After going through a slump which saw him score no goals in 11 playoff games, he broke the string with a beauty goal against Carey Price and the Canadiens to get his team off and running in Game 2 of that series. He would go on to score two more in the series, tying the game in Game 5 and eventually winning Game 6 with a tally that stood up as the series clincher. The other components of the Johnson line didn’t taken a back seat, either. Tyler Johnson himself may have saved the Lightning’s season with his six goals and one assist he tallied in the Detroit series, but his counterparts didn’t step up as much as he did. Ondrej Palat scored just one time in the seven games and added two assists while Nikita Kucherov tallied no goals and four assists. It was a different story in the Conference Semis. Kucherov and Palat combined for eight goals and 12 points, with Kucherov scoring six of those goals. The defense has been productive as head coach Jon Cooper continues to employ the 11-forward, seven defense gameplan, combining for five goals and 23 points in 13 games. The team is clicking offensively at the absolute right time, and with Ryan Callahan possibly back in the lineup(four goals, one assist in season series), the team looks dangerous in this series.
New York Rangers
The Rangers moniker this postseason has been getting pucks to the net. They’ve been third best at shot attempts for, with 591, Tampa Bay shortly behind at 5th with 472. They also place 5th with a Fenwick% of 52.44%, signifying how many actually get through to the net. The forward depth for the Rangers has been nothing short of solid, with eight players having two or more goals. Chris Kreider leads the way with five, and three of them came at clutch times in the Washington series, tying the game in Game 5 late and scoring in the first and last minute of the first period in Game 6. Derick Brassard and Derek Stepan lead the team with eight points each, Rick Nash right behind with seven points, just two goals. The defensive core for the team has four goals and 20 points through the first two rounds, just adding to the depth the Rangers have. Ryan McDonagh leads the core with two goals and six points, including an overtime winner in Game 5 against the Capitals helping the team stay alive. Getting offense from any source possible boosts a team’s chances of going far, and both teams have many sources that have gotten them halfway to the Cup.
Advantage: Tampa Bay
Defense:
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay’s offense from the back end comes with stingy defense from that core as well. They place 5th in goals allowed per game at a 2.15 clip along with placing in the same position in terms of shots allowed per game, a 27.7 mark. At their best, the Tampa D gives nothing through the neutral zone, and that was seen often in the clinching Game 6 versus the Habs, where the team limited Montreal to 19 shots in a game they were desperate for in trying to stave off elimination again. From Victor Hedman to Andrej Sustr, the balance of the team in this regard is very impressive in terms of puck movers and coverage in all situations. Against the Rangers they face a speed type of team that likes to be tenacious on the puck, evidenced by how the group up front plays. Whether it be Derek Stepan, Derick Brassard, or Kevin Hayes, all four lines aided by the defensive core like to move north to south versus east to west and have the puck movers to do so fluently. That neutral zone needs to be on lockdown if Tampa wants to keep the puck out of their net.
New York Rangers
The Rangers have a stacked core that can produce from the back-end as well as previously mentioned, but like the Lightning, their stinginess shows. 29.6 shots allowed per game ranks eighth among the 16 teams qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, 3rd out of the four teams left. They rank first in the playoffs in terms of goals allowed per game, a 1.67 mark. Having Henrik Lundqvist as your goalie helps sure, but when Keith Yandle and Dan Boyle(combined for 15 goals, 72 points in regular season) round out your bottom pair, it speaks volumes of the depth of the team. But can they shut down the best goal scoring team in the regular season with stars that have perked up at the right time? Time will tell.
Advantage: New York Rangers
Goaltending:
Tampa Bay
Ben Bishop has not been an exact science this postseason. Sure his numbers are pretty impressive, posting a .931 save percentage and a 1.81 GAA through the first two rounds, but he has the tendency to give up that goal that just makes you scratch your head. This has occurred at three distinct times, all of them big momentum-swinging goals. In Game 4 of the Detroit series, a shot went high off of his glove, and Bishop knocked it in with his own stick. In the Montreal series, in Game 1 a puck went off of his glove over his back and in the back of the net, tying the game and sending the game into overtime. In Game 4, he gave up a similar goal that stretched the Montreal lead and crushed Tampa’s will to close the series out that night. He has been helped out by his teammates 2/3 times in these situations, but sooner or later, those will come back and bite. Still Bishop has been impressive when he has needed to be. He played his best game of the playoffs in Game 7 against the Red Wings, making 31 saves and posting his one shutout of the playoffs. In the clinching Game 6 of the Montreal series, Bishop stood tall again making 18 saves in a 4-1 victory. He will be heavily tested, however, with the guy facing him in the other crease.
New York Rangers
King Henrik Lundqvist occupies the crease for the Rangers at that end, and let’s just say his playoff pedigree is a bit more seasoned. Through his career, he’s been through nine Stanley Cup Playoff runs, posting a career goals against of 2.17 and a save percentage of .925. This postseason has been even better through two rounds. He’s posted a 1.60 GAA and .944 save percentage, and oh by the way, he just won his 6th Game 7 in as many chances, improving his GAA in those games further below 0.90. The 33-year old Lundqvist is missing a signature piece to his mantle, and that is a Stanley Cup ring. With his career getting deeper and the Rangers currently in the championship window, Lundqvist has a good shot to get it for himself and for his team for the first time since 1994. He’s been a rock so far and should be motivated in every facet of his game to continue his remarkable play.
Advantage: New York Rangers
Coaching:
Tampa Bay:
Jon Cooper sounds like a tremendous coach to play for. The former student of law has achieved 101 wins in 180 games coached with the Lightning, earning a Norris nomination last season. This season, the team soared to new heights, breaking franchise records for wins with 50 and a winning % of .659%, the team’s best since 2004, their Stanley Cup season. Cooper’s second playoff go-around has been a bit longer than his first to say the least, making it to the final four versus not winning a game last season. He goes up against a smart man himself behind the Ranger bench, however.
New York Rangers
That man is Alain Vigneault. Having 28 years of coaching experience as both a head and assistant coach in the QMJHL and NHL, the 54-year old has attained some knowledge of playoff hockey to say the least. He has appeared in four Final rounds, winning one and losing one in the QMJHL and losing both of his appearances in the NHL with the Canucks and Rangers. He’s won over 500 games in the National Hockey League and has made eight postseason appearances in the NHL and 17 overall in his career. His teams have won three of the last five President’s Trophies, including this season’s Rangers team and back-to-back years with the Vancouver Canucks from 2010-12, coming one win away from the Cup in 2010-11. He’s tasted the feeling of a Championship in the QMJHL, but never in the National Hockey League. If he wants to add to that already impressive pedigree, now would be a great time to earn his first ring in the big leagues.
Advantage: New York Rangers
Special Teams:
Tampa Bay:
The Tampa Bay powerplay checks in at 9th overall in the playoffs, converting at an 18% rate. In the regular season, the powerplay was middle of the pack as well, finishing 14th with a an 18.8% mark. Nikita Kucherov leads the way in power play goals with three this postseason. As for the penalty kill, the team ranks 6th with an 86.7% rate, allowing only 6 goals out of a possible 45 chances. The Tampa PK was better than its powerplay as well in the regular season, finishing 7th at 83.7%. Along with having solid special teams, Tampa’s 5-on-5 play is their bread and butter, posting an even strength goals for/against ratio of 1.28, 2nd best in the regular season. This postseason, it is good for 3rd at a 1.24 ratio.
New York Rangers
The Rangers pride themselves on 5-on-5 play as well, being the best team in terms of even strength goals for/against in the regular season with a 1.32 ratio. This playoffs they have fallen to 1.06, good for 7th in the field of 16 teams and 4th out of the four teams left. In the regular season, the Rangers were below average all year with the man advantage, finishing 21st with a 16.8% rate. It has continued to be below average in the playoffs, being 11th in the league at 15.8%. No one on the team has more than one powerplay goal and the team itself has scored 6 goals out of a possible 38 with the man advantage. The penalty kill has saved the team however, ranking 4th with an 89.3% killing rate and ranks first out of the four teams still left. Compare that to the regular season, where the Rangers finished 6th with an 84.3% rate. All in all, both special teams have stayed consistent from the regular season to now.
Advantage: Tampa Bay
Players to Watch:
Tampa Bay
Ryan Callahan
As previously mentioned, Ryan Callahan in three games against the team he captained before has been a killer. Posting four goals and an assist in the season series, if he is good to go in Game 1 he should be on everyone’s radar. He grinds, he scores, he gets in your face, and he will not go lightly against his former team. He only has three assists in the playoffs so far, but it seems like this would be the series he breaks out of the funk. He is likely to play in Game 1 after the emergency appendectomy he had kept him out for Game 6 against the Canadiens, and that should not be a surprise to the Rangers, who should know his compete level from his time there.
New York Rangers
Martin St. Louis
The two captains that swapped places? Why not.
St. Louis has struggled as much as Callahan has, posting only four assists in 12 games so far. He too had some regular season success against the Lightning, scoring twice in the season series. If both of these players had a round to break out in, it would have to be this one. Facing your former team, the winner of the series gets to go to the Stanley Cup Final. What better stage could be set for these two slumping stars?
Series Predictions from our Hockey Department:
Tyler Shea: Rangers in 5
Matt Ricks: Rangers in 6
Charlie O’Connor Clarke: Lightning in 7
Aaron Wrotkowski: Rangers in 5
Griffin Schroeder: Rangers in 7
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