In recent years the races leading up to the seeding at Slams have been relatively boring. The grouping of Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, and Murray have had top seeds locked up for a while. And even with some of them having their ranking slip at times in recent years (e.g. Federer in 2013 or Murray last year), other players like David Ferrer have picked up and filled in that #4 spot. We have certainly never had a race for a seed as important as #4 at a Slam been this wide open with one week left.
Entering this week’s Masters 1000 tournament in Rome, there are four players who can still pick up that all-important French Open #4 spot. There would be a fifth, but Milos Raonic pulled out of Rome this week with a minor foot surgery. Why is being in the top four so important? The Slams have a semi-random draw with certain seeds locked in. No one in the top four seeds can meet each other before the semifinals. But anyone in that 5-8 group can meet any of the top four seeds in the quarterfinals. So being #4 will protect any of these players from meeting Djokovic, Federer, or Murray in the quarterfinals.
Tomas Berdych currently has a minuscule 10-point lead over Kei Nishikori for the #4 spot. 10 points is less than the value of any win at a Masters so all Nishikori needs to do to pass Berdych is go one round further than the Czech. For his part, Berdych needs to only go as far as Nishikori. With Nishikori slated to face Djokovic in the quarterfinals, Berdych should safely hold that lead as long as he can get by Grigor Dimitrov in the 3rd round.
The only other player with a real chance to move into that #4 spot is Rafael Nadal. Last year’s runner-up here in Rome is 660 points behind Berdych. Since a Masters title is only worth 1000 points, Nadal can only pass Berdych or Nishikori if they gain less than 340 points. That means that if either of the two reach the semifinals, Nadal cannot earn the #4 seed no matter what he does this week. With Nishikori facing Djokovic in the quarterfinals it feels unlikely but since Berdych is slated to face Roger Federer in the quarters it is a decent possibility that he earn those 360 semifinal points.
The final player with a mathematical possibility of earning the #4 seed is David Ferrer. This isn’t much worth talking about, though. Basically, Ferrer needs to win the title and have both Nishikori and Berdych lose their first matches in Rome. Like I said, not worth talking about.
The cutoff for the #8 seed is also important. None of the top eight seeds can meet another top eight seed before the quarterfinal. At the French Open, the 1-4 seeds will meet the 13-16 seeds in the fourth round and the 5-8 seeds will meet 9-12. The top eight spots are pretty much locked up, actually. The only way someone not currently in that range can break into the top eight is if either Stanislas Wawrinka or Marin Cilic wins the title. Both of those definitely have the ability to make a run through Rome, but neither is really in the form to win a Masters right now.
A real matter of interest would be if Nadal fell out of the top eight. It is very unlikely, though. If Nadal wins two matches in Rome he will guarantee himself a top eight seed. Of course, he is drawn to face John Isner in the Round of 16, a poor matchup for him and a player who seemed to be rounding into clay form last week.
Of course, even if Nadal loses early it would still be tough for him to fall out of that #8 spot. It can only happen if Wawrinka wins the title and beats Ferrer in the final. Still, there will be a lot of intrigue for that #12 and #16 spots, so keep an eye on all the matches in Rome to see how the Roland Garros seeds will shape up.
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