Coming off a 0-0 draw against Cascadia rivals Vancouver Whitecaps, the Portland Timbers head to Montreal this weekend for the first of three consecutive matches on the road at the beginning of a crucial stretch for the Timbers. It’s becoming a tired story this year, but that doesn’t make it any less relevant: the Portland Timbers need to start winning some games soon to avoid a repeat of the 2014 season which saw their slow start keep them out of the playoffs despite a hot finish.
In a vacuum, these next two games, despite being on the road, would appear to be a perfect opportunity to put together their first winning streak of the season. Despite the difficulties of winning on the road in MLS, Portland has actually been pretty good on the road since the beginning of last season. That said, nobody who’s watched the Timbers this season could reasonably expect that the Timbers in their current form are going to go on the road and win consecutive games. It might be fair to expect them to pick up at least two, maybe even three, draws on this road trip, but more than one win would be a surprise given their current run of play.
That said, this Timbers team clearly has talent, and is probably better on paper than the Montreal and Houston teams they’ll be playing in the first two weeks of their trip. If they want to start turning losses into draws and draws into wins though, changes need to happen. So, as the Timbers head out to Montreal, here’s three for the road.
1. What’s wrong with the strikers?
At the beginning of the 2014 the Timbers problem was defense. The team was scoring plenty, but an abysmal back line was preventing them from winning games and picking up points. This year they have the opposite problem. The defense has been solid. They’ve given up only eight goals, which is fourth best in MLS on a per game basis. Instead, it’s the offense that has been lacking.
Through nine games the Timbers have scored just seven goals, fifth worst in the league on a per game basis. Maxi Urruti has just one goal, and while Fanendo Adi’s three goals isn’t a terrible total, he hasn’t scored in the last five matches and simply has not been playing well.
Caleb Porter seems to be trying everything in an attempt to get his forwards scoring. He tried pairing them in a 4-4-2 for a few games and everyone learned that Adi and Urruti don’t play well together. He’s tried each up top alone as the starting striker, but things haven’t improved. Both players are very much “confidence players,” and it’s evident that they’re struggling with confidence. It’s visible on the field. Sure, they work hard, but when they’re on the ball it’s just not the same.
The problem isn’t even necessarily chance creation. The Timbers are ninth in the league with 1.16 expected goals per game, but only scoring 0.78 goals per game. Sure, they aren’t creating chances at the rate they did last year when they had an expected goals per game of 1.53 and an actual goals per game of 1.72, but it should be better.
Recently, the biggest question has been what Portland needs to do about their striker situation. With reports this week that multiple Liga MX sides have inquired about the availability of Fanendo Adi, speculation is that he may be on his way out this summer to make room for a new face in the strike force.
The other potential solution to Portland’s striker problems brings up the second of our “three for the road.”
2. Diego Valeri’s Return
Perhaps the solution to the struggles of Urruti and Adi is as simple as the return of playmaker Diego Valeri. While Darlington Nagbe has been very good in the primary playmaker role so far, adding Valeri back to the mix adds so much to the Timbers attack. Adding Valeri takes pressure and focus off Nagbe, which should free him up to be even better. Valeri’s scoring presence, 11 goals in 2014 and 10 goals in 2013, should also take some attention off Adi and Urruti, freeing them up for better scoring chances. The Portland playmaker will also provide an undeniable boost to chance creation. Not only should Portland create more chances as Valeri gets back into form, they should create better chances.
Last week, against Vancouver, Valeri made his season debut, coming on in the second half and playing 38 minutes. While some rustiness was evident, he instantly provided a boost to the team and looked good in the second half. While Caleb Porter hasn’t committed to starting Valeri this week, he did indicate it is likely that Valeri will play increased minutes this week, which probably means a start and 60-70 minutes.
Timbers fans will need to have a bit of patience and not expect instant magic from Valeri, but his return is much needed boost when the team and fanbase needs it most. Even when not in top form, Valeri, who has had double digits in goals and assists each of the last two years, adds quality to the Timbers lineup and it might just be the confidence boost the Timbers need to get going.
Speaking of confidence…
3. Time for urgency
Recently the Timbers have looked short of confidence and it seems to have impacted their sense of urgency on the field. It’s almost as if they’ve been playing the last few weeks going through the motions waiting for Valeri and Will Johnson to return so the season can really get going. However, they need to learn from 2014 and start playing with some urgency now.
In 2014 the Timbers lost only six of their last 31 games, having one of the best records in MLS after April. Even that wasn’t enough, as they finished one point short of the playoffs. While everyone talks about how long the season is and how teams can recover from slow starts and still make the playoffs, the Timbers proved last year that if you wait too long to get going it will cost you. Valeri may take a few weeks to get back to top form, but the rest of the team can’t wait around until he does before they step up their game. It needs to happen, and it needs to happen soon or it will be too late.
