THE FIGHT is finally upon us. For the pessimists or perhaps more appropriately titled, realists, it never seemed this day would come. Going on half a decade now we have been seduced and teased with the possibility of this match-up, only to be left unfulfilled anytime the deal seemed near. That is no more. The thoughts of “what if?” and endless dialogues of hyperbole and anecdotes are now outdated and unnecessary. We can now move past imaginative ideals and focus on the facts concerning the mega-fight and how to use those to best inform our decisions. Without further adieu here is a betting man’s take on “MayPac”.
The thought of Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Manny Pacquiao first truly penetrated the public consciousness around 2009. It would be most appropriate to focus on the careers of both men since that time. By comparing and contrasting their career trajectories and looking at common opponents, we can come up with a well-educated prediction for May 2nd’s conclusion, and in the process give you a true gambler’s prediction.
SINCE 2009 IT’S BEEN ALL MONEY
Since Floyd’s return from a brief hiatus, we have seen “Money May” in action eight times. Of course, all of those bouts ended in Mayweather’s hand being raised in victory. In September 2011, Floyd captured his lone KO during this time frame giving him a respectable record of 8-0 (1 KO).
Manny’s stretch during the past six years has been more contentious and at times controversial. Slightly more active, “PacMan” has appeared on our television sets 11 times. His ’09 campaign began with a huge bang as he recorded knockout victories over both Ricky Hatton and Miguel Cotto. The mauling of Cotto would be Manny’s last stoppage up to present day.
2012 turned out to arguably be Manny’s worst year on record. He started off by dropping a ludicrous decision to Timothy Bradley in June. The scores in that contest were universally panned; however, the final edict is a loss for Pacquiao. His next loss would be without little contention. In December, he faced his most fierce rival, Juan Manuel Marquez, for the fourth time. Coming in super-aggressive, ultimately ended with Manny face-down in one of the most vicious one-punch KO’s in boxing history. JMM recorded his first victory over Pacquiao that night with a stoppage in the 6th rd.
Since that time, Manny has rattled off three straight decision wins over game opponents. One of those being a decisive dismantling of Bradley. Overall, we are left with a record of 9 wins (2 KOs) against 2 losses (1 KO.) It is safe to assume that the past six years have been much kinder to Mayweather in terms of wins and losses.
COMMON OPPONENTS PROVIDE A TELLING COMPARISON
Common opponents are an ideal method of judging strengths and weaknesses between two competitors who have yet to meet. For this particular experiment, we are left with a decent sample size as both have faced a similar fighter five times. Let’s breakdown those encounters.
Oscar De La Hoya – Each man hooked up with DLH to generate huge revenue and record arguably their biggest wins to date. Floyd saw action first, recording a heated split decision nod in 2007. Some 15 months later, Pacquiao walked through DLH picking up an eight round stoppage after Oscar retired on his stool.
Ricky Hatton – Able to bring a huge following from his homeland and equipped with a terrific punch, the Hitman from Manchester next met both fighters. In Dec. ’07, Mayweather became the first to pair off with Hatton. Floyd ultimately handled Ricky and shut him down with a 10th rd KO. Manny met Ricky in May of ’09. He recorded quite possibly his greatest knockout when a single punch face-planted Hatton in just the 2nd round.
Juan Manuel Marquez – Undoubtedly, Manny’s greatest opponent Juan has met with PacMan on four occasions. The first of those encounters was way back in 2004. JMM was dropped 3 times in the first two rounds but fought back valiantly to settle with a draw. Their 2nd and 3rd encounters in ’08 and ’11 saw Pacquiao come away with spirited and heavily debated decision wins. That all changed in their fourth and final fight, when Marquez crushed Manny and left him out cold (and for a brief time killed any talks of the superfight.) Mayweather’s tilt with JMM back in 2009 was much more clear and dry. Floyd dominated to the tune of an easy win (along with the assist of several extra pounds after missing weight).
Shane Mosley – “Sugar” Shane met both fighters in May of 2010 and 2011, respectively. Floyd would take on the maiden honors as he fought Shane first. Mosley was able to land probably the hardest clean shot anyone has landed on Floyd his entire career. Alas, it would be for naught and Mayweather made the necessary adjustments and again cruised to a dominant unanimous decision. Pacquiao fought a much-faded and slower Mosley a year later. This fight featured none of the thrills the Floyd fight had. Again, Pacquiao picked up an easy unanimous decision victory.
Miguel Cotto – The Puerto Rican phenom has largely been considered the #3 money draw behind these two superstars. His fights against both men garnered large returns and somewhat different results. First meeting Manny in ’09, Cotto came in as perhaps damaged goods after being mauled by Margarito the year prior. PacMan ate up Miguel before finally recording a TKO in the 12th and final round. After a bit of a career rebuild, Miguel locked horns with Floyd on Cinco de Mayo in 2012. This contest was arguably the most entertaining fight of Floyd’s typically defensive minded career. Scoring crowd points for bloodying the nose of Mayweather was ultimately not enough. Again, Floyd won a clear-cut UD but the action was well sustained and showed another side of Mayweather.
If we take a step back there are a couple points to make. Generally speaking, Floyd has stepped up first to take on the common challengers. This could be an important point to make as Manny has typically been credited with the KO victories that Mayweather has lacked. More so, there is a common criticism that Manny fights top tier fighters who are on the downward spiral. Certainly, those complaints could be leveled at his KO victories over Hatton and Cotto.
Some may attempt to make a parallel with the Marquez fights. Styles make fights though and I believe Juan is the perfect opponent for Manny. The Mayweather fight in my opinion was marred by the disrespectful weight miss followed by a huge ballooning the following day. Floyd already was the bigger man but he catapulted himself into a much more favorable position.
A FIGHTER’S MOMENTUM IS KEY
When we step outside of common opponents, it is perhaps best to look at momentum. This factor should always be considered highly before any contest. Looking at Floyd first, lets look at the facts. Just two years short of his 40th birthday, Mayweather is still undefeated and the largest draw in boxing since Mike Tyson. He is not without his criticisms though. The chief among those are his declining skill level. Critics typically point at the blows he accrued against Cotto and Marcos Maidana. The first Maidana fight from May of last year set a new record for punches landed against Floyd. Father Time will ultimately always stay undefeated but Floyd has done an incredible job of keeping him at bay.
Pacquiao is at a sort of crossroads. Has he rebounded back from his disastrous ’12 year? Absolutely. Does he look like his old self since regaining his stride? I would suggest not. Opponents like Brandon Rios are several levels below Manny. In fact, Rios was most definitely selected due to his utter lack of defensive skills. Although, Manny picked up a crucial confidence building win, it did little to quell worries about Manny’s diminishing lack of power.
Pacquiao’s last bout against Chris Algieri can be seen on two ends of the spectrum. First, Manny dominated with a capital D. He ended the night with 6 knockdowns. Most telling though was he did not end up with a capital KO. A stoppage has eluded Manny since his fantastic ’09 campaign. Algieri, although a competent solid competitor, is not an elite level fighter. He had heart to finish the fight but he was terribly outclassed. Even though he may have tasted canvas a half-dozen times he was never in an unconscious state. This to me is the most telling signature of time and the battles that Manny has endured.
THE ULTIMATE PREDICTION
So where does that leave us? I think looking over the histories of these two, it’s safe to assume that a knockout is probably unlikely. Mayweather is unabashedly light-handed. Manny himself seems to have lost much of his punch. That is even against lesser competition. When coming up against one of the (if not the) greatest defensive fighters, I see Pacquiao’s chances of a forcing a stoppage as unrealistic.
What about who wins? I am very much on the side of Floyd Maymeather Jr. here to record his 48th straight win. And I am inclined to believe he will do it by a 12 round decision. Most likely unanimous.
Looking over the betting lines that are out there, we are in a unique position. Traditionally, Money May is an undeniable favorite and there are little value plays to be made. With the excitement around this fight and the increase in participation from the mainstream public we are in for a treat. Manny undoubtedly comes in as a fan-favorite. With that fanfare, there is a heavy slant of betting coming in on a Floyd opponent. That is unusual but it does us a favor as it presents us with some valuable plays to make. Down below are my choices (all lines come from 5Dimes.)
- Floyd Mayweather straight up at -200. For those familiar with Mayweather fights, Floyd typically comes in at a favorite above -800. This is basically Christmas come early. For those with the cash, load up on the SU pick.
- Mayweather by 12rd dec at -102. This is the typical outcome of a Floyd fight. Based on the fact this is almost even money is absolutely insane to me. Looking over the analysis before, this is the most likely scenario. I myself will play this prop very heavily.
- Draw at +1275. Lest we never forget, this is boxing. And its in Las Vegas. Crazier things have happened. For such a match-up I think its appropriate to look at Chavez vs Whitaker. A small bet on this prop could come in mighty useful.
No matter what, I hope we are all in store for an amazing fight. For those that plan on tailing my advice, good luck to you all.
Main Photo
