As is the case nearly every year, the Championship has continued to create incredible excitement right to the end of the season at both ends of the table. Bournemouth’s expected promotion is the sort of story more akin to that of a player of Football Manager, and Wigan, FA Cup winners only 2 years ago, end up relegated to League One. The Championship is not a regular league.
The Race For The Championship Play-Offs
Part of the reason for the excitement in the Championship is due to the fact that any team seems capable of beating any team. Form will often go out of the window and whether a team is top of the league, 12th in the league or even 23rd it is nigh on impossible to predict a result. It is also that competitiveness that, in the end, results in extremely close promotion and relegation battles, unless you are Blackpool, who could probably have a soap opera written about them this year.
Unlike last season, where Leicester and Burnley, with 102 and 93 points respectively, broke away from the pack for promotion, this season’s promotion race has gone to the wire. Officially, Watford remain the only promoted club, not yet champions, though a 20 goal swing is somewhat unimaginable to stop Bournemouth going up automatically and Middlesbrough taking their place in second.
Similar to last season, however, is the race for the play-offs. As with last season, there are two teams (Middlesbrough and Norwich) that are definitely going to be in them, but the other two spots are to be decided between four teams; Ipswich, Derby, Brentford and Wolves.
For Ipswich, a draw is enough. They face Blackburn Rovers on Saturday, who are unbeaten in six. Ipswich know that the play-offs are in their hands and that the only way they won’t make them is if Derby and Brentford both win and they lose, or Wolves happen to beat Millwall by seven goals. The fear would be that complacency could hit the Tractor Boys, but under Mick McCarthy, who has been there before, it is unlikely.
The race for 6th place, then, could be the most interesting. Derby, who were many people’s favourites for promotion find themselves going through a sour patch at just the wrong time. Granted, they are unbeaten in their last 6 games, but only two wins in twelve is far from promotion form, and not the form you want to take in to the play offs. Brentford and Wolves, both promoted to the Championship from League One last season, will both be confident they can win their final games of the season, both playing recently relegated teams, Wigan and Millwall respectively.
For Derby and Steve McLaren there is far more pressure to reach the play offs than for Wolves and Brentford. A failure to reach the top 6 would be unacceptable for the Rams, as would, arguably, not gaining promotion. However, with that pressure comes the reality that in the ten matches against teams that may make the play offs this season, Derby have only won once, against Wolves in November. In the past two months, Derby have played all but Ipswich around them and managed two draws and two defeats. It’s not promising form for the East Midlands side.
If Derby do fail to make it, either by missing out on the play offs altogether or failing to go up through them as they also did last season, McLaren will more than likely be more considering to the prospect of the vacant Newcastle United role, and a period of transition may begin to take place at the club.
Wolves and, moreso, Brentford have been surprise packages this year. Both newly promoted, a play off place was most likely more than any fan may have imagined possible come the end of the year. Wolves have the knowledge of the league and the play offs, and will understand the pressures more than most if they make it, especially as they were in the Premier League themselves not too long ago. However, their goal difference alone means they need both Brentford and Derby to lose to stand any chance of making it and you have to feel that is maybe a stretch too far.
Brentford will feel their chances are slightly better. If they win 3-0 against relegated Wigan at home, and Ipswich lose 1-0 away to Blackburn they will make the play offs regardless of what Derby do. It’s not so unlikely a situation; and back-to-back promotion is something Mark Warburton and his team will be dreaming of. However, they will be fully aware that they are reliant on teams above faltering and, realistically, that leaves only a small chance that they will make it.
Middlesbrough, unlikely to perform a 20 goal turnaround to clinch automatic promotion, face Brighton at the Riverside, where they have won their last six games. The club will try to brush off the last minute defeat to Fulham last week and feel confident of winning and finishing third, leaving Norwich, so impressive under Alex Neil, to finish fourth, though, coming up against Fulham, they’ll still feel they may make third.
Interestingly, when looking at the last six games for each team, the top six are not too dissimilar to what it actually is for over the course of the season. Watford and Bournemouth are 1st and 2nd, but it is Norwich who sit third, in front of the rest of the play off pack, and that form and confidence may well carry them through.
Regardless of whoever makes it to the play-offs and beyond, there is one thing that is guaranteed; the Championship will continue to give you excitement, thrills and spills right until the final whistle.
