As the regular season has come to an end, Last Word On Sports analyzes every playoff series heading into this week’s action. In the first installment, we take a look at the matchups in five categories: Offense, defense, goaltending, coaching and special teams. We also run down the players to look out for and give our final assessment on how the series will pan out. In the second portion, we will analyze what went down in the series, how the matchups led to the outcome and cover all important storylines.
We meet again.
The Lightning and Canadiens met in last year’s postseason with Tampa missing a key piece of their Stanley Cup puzzle, goaltender Ben Bishop, for the whole series. The result? A four-game sweep by Montreal as they moved on without much problem. This time around, however, Bishop is back and has a 7-game series win under his belt. Of course, the Canadiens have a goalie named Carey Price, who backstopped the sweep last year. Let’s take a look at how each team stacks up.
The Matchup: Lightning VS Canadiens
The Lightning finished second in the Atlantic Division with a 50-24-8 record, earning 108 points in a record-breaking season. They had home ice advantage in the first round and it served them well when it counted, as they beat the Detroit Red Wings in the 7th game at Amalie Arena. The Lightning did not play their best hockey, and that could be a dangerous factor if they find their way early in this series against Montreal.
The Canadiens finished first in the Atlantic Division with 110 points. Their first round opponent, the Ottawa Senators, were a tough out for them, pushing the series to six games after Montreal went ahead 3-0 and chased the “Hamburglar.” Looking to get back to the Eastern Conference Final and perhaps beyond, the Canadiens will rely much on their goaltender and strong defense to get through the scoring prowess the Lightning possess.
Offense:
Montreal finished 20th overall in terms of goals per game scoring at a 2.61 clip. Much of the goal scoring is provided by Max Pacioretty, potting 37 pucks into the twine in the regular season and two so far in the postseason. Other sources of scoring include Tomas Plekanec(24G-60P), Brendan Gallagher(24G-47P) and Alex Galchenyuk(20G-46P). Former Sabres Brian Flynn and Torey Mitchell have formed some great chemistry together on the fourth line, potting a goal and dishing two assists each this Playoffs.
The Lightning aren’t slouches when it comes to putting the puck in the net, as they did it 3.16 times per game in the regular season. This playoffs, their Captain, Steven Stamkos(43G in regular season), has gone quiet, dishing just two assists in seven games. They have been saved however, by the play of Tyler Johnson. Six goals, seven points, and an ability to score timely goals has Johnson as the frontrunner for Tampa’s playoff MVP so far. As a team, they scored just 17 goals in the series with Detroit. Without Johnson, it could’ve been a different outcome. But with a club that boasted five 50+ point scorers, the “triplets line” of Nikita Kucherov-Tyler Johnson-Ondrej Palat(200P in 74GP), and 10 double-digit goal scorers in the regular season, it may be just a matter of time.
Advantage: Tampa Bay
Defense:
Montreal has a very experienced blueline with a few fresh faces. The anchor of course, being P.K. Subban, has been as good as advertised, potting a goal and three assists. He also led the team in shots in the series against the Senators, using the bomb of a shot he has. In the regular season, his Corsi in close games was +104, seventh out of all defensemen. Trade acquisition Jeff Petry, who had four goals and 15 points in 59 games with the Oilers, put up three goals and seven points in 19 games with the Habs. Alexei Emelin, Tom Gilbert, and Andrei Markov have all provided a veteran presence in their own respective ways, but with the speed of the Lightning, it may be tough on their legs in trying to contain the high-octane attack.
Tampa Bay has a very good puck-moving blueline with a mix of youth and veterans. Free agent acquisition Anton Stralman led the defense Corsi rating and in points, partly from the fact that Victor Hedman was injured. Still, playing in all 82 games he earned the first year of his new payday, putting up nine goals and 39 points being a +279 in the Corsi department(led team defense in shot attempts with 1258). Hedman netted 38 points in 56 games, posting a +174 Corsi rating. Jason Garrison provided a veteran presence all season long, potting four goals and 30 points, including a goal last round. Andrej Sustr and his big frame leads the team defense in Fenwick, with 66 unblocked shots to the net. As a team the Lightning rank fourth in the league this playoff season with 214 shot attempts allowed. Trade deadline acquisition Braydon Coburn proved his worth in getting the series-clinching goal for the Bolts in Game 7.
Advantage: Tampa Bay
Goaltending:
What else can you say about number 31. He put up 44 wins, a record for a Canadiens goaltender passing the likes of Jacques Plante and Ken Dryden. A 1.96 GAA and .933 save % exemplify that the mark is no fluke and that at the moment, Carey Price is the best goaltender in the world. So far these playoffs, its a similar, yet better stat line. 1.94 GAA, .939 save %, plus a shutout of the Senators in the series-clinching Game 6 in Ottawa.
Ben Bishop broke his own career high for wins this season with 40 along with posting a .916 save % and 2.32 GAA. One could say the 28-year old was shaky in the first round matchup with Detroit. He didn’t exactly have much experience in a playoff situation and it showed at times. However, he overcame the small struggles and finished the series strong, posting a .922 save % along with a 1.87 GAA, posting a shutout in Game 7, making 31 saves in the victory.
Advantage: Montreal
Coaching:
Jon Cooper is in his second season and graces the title of the most interesting coach in hockey. Bouncing from league to league for 12 years along with practicing law before finding a place in Tampa Bay is just the beginning of his great story. A nomination for the Jack Adams award last season and his 101 wins in 180 games so far is a testament to how much his players love playing for him. He did accuse the Red Wings of cheating last round due to the infamous “subtle interference” strategy they employ, but that just reflected his competitive attitude that rubbed off on his team as they won the next two games and the series trying to play their opponents to a key.
Michel Therrien has been to a Cup Final(’08) and has been known to mix it up, maybe just too much. Line combinations seem like they are constantly changing throughout the game as Therrien likes to see which players gel with who. With the fourth line generating most of the offense so far, the Habs should expect this to continue. Is there a method to his madness? Maybe. But time will tell if it will spell a Cup run. Having Carey Price as your goalie helps the cause, however.
Advantage: Tampa Bay
Special Teams
Montreal finished 23rd overall in the league in terms of powerplay efficiency at a 16.5% conversion rate. Max Pacioretty Tomas Plekanec, and PK Subban were the obvious big guns, with Subban lightning the lamp eight times with the man advantage, Plekanec seven times, and Pacioretty seven times. There is a significant drop off after that, with P.A. Parenteau and Brendan Gallagher each chipping in with three. In the playoffs, the Habs rank 15th in conversion rate with just 5% of man advantages resulting in goals. Montreal did have its successes on the PK however, placing seventh in the league at an 83.7% killing rate in the regular season. Against the Senators, they killed 75% of Senator opportunities, placing 12th in the playoffs.
Tampa Bay, a team with many, many weapons, found itself in the middle of the pack in terms of conversion rate at 14th with a 18.8% mark. Naturally, Steven Stamkos led the way with 13 powerplay goals, followed by Ryan Callahan with 10, Tyler Johnson with eight, and then comes the drop off. Three players tied with three goals, three players tied with two, and five tied with one. This playoff, it was victimized by the Detroit penalty kill, which allowed two goals on thirty Tampa opportunities, equating to a 6.7% conversion rate. Both goals came in Game 2. The Tampa penalty kill finished 9th in the league in the regular season killing off 83.7% of short-handed opportunities, a percentage tied with Montreal. Brian Boyle is the main weapon of interest on this unit, and in the playoffs they killed 82.8% of Detroit’s second-best regular season powerplay opportunities.
Advantage: Tampa Bay
Who To Watch For
Montreal: Dale Weise
Yes, this is a little off the beaten path, but with how Weise has performed the last couple postseasons, he’s worth a look. Scoring an overtime winner against Tampa Bay last year and putting the series out of reach for the Senators this year has reflected the timing of Weise’s goals and how big they are. He may not score many, but if its at the right time, it could turn the series around.
Tampa Bay: Ben Bishop
Why not?
After missing out on the Habs last season and watching his team get swept with him not there to affect the outcome should be more than a source of motivation for Bishop, who won five games out of five this season against the Atlantic Division rival. He’ll only have to win four, but in the playoffs, it will be an entirely different animal. With how Bishop finished the first round, he could be a deciding factor in this round in getting the Lightning back in the Conference Final for the first time since 2011.
Series Predictions from our Hockey Department:
Ben Kerr: Canadiens in 7
Aaron Wrotkowski: Canadiens in 5
Dom Simonetta: Canadiens in 6
Tyler Shea: Canadiens in 6
Shawn Wilken: Lightning in 6
Markus Meyer: Lightning in 7
Brandon Altomonte: Lightning in 7
Griffin Schroeder: Canadiens in 7
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