With the announcement today that Alexander Gustafsson has withdrawn from his fight with Glover Teixeira in Berlin next month, comes the news that Joanna Jedrzejczyk will defend her strawweight title against Jessica Penne in its place.
The replacement main event for UFC Fight Night 69 conjures thoughts of clouds and silver linings. It is an opportunity to see an exciting UFC champion defend their title, and that can only be a good thing. Just keep lining those challengers up, it’s the champions and the title fights that I want to see more of.
JOANNA JEDRZEJCZYK vs JESSICA PENNE (Strawweight Championship)
When it is perceived that one fighter is the heavy favorite over their opponent, thoughts often turn to conjuring up ways that the underdog might upset the odds. Make no mistake, Jedrzejczyk will go in to this fight as a heavy favorite.
I am however a little concerned, and not for Penne’s health once the champion is done with her, but that Jedrzejczyk’s performance in winning the title from Carla Esparza has distorted the perception of her ability, and exactly what type of fighter she is. Already, people are suggesting that this is going to be a crushing one round knockout despite the fact that Jedrzejczyk has been taken the distance by 5 of her 9 opponents.
It’s not that Jedrzejczyk isn’t a great 115lb fighter. She is. It’s that her title win at UFC 185 was against someone who had checked out mentally and had no plan B to put into place when plan A failed.
Esparza shot for takedowns and couldn’t get them and then proceeded to freeze. By the time the referee intervened it was a stoppage of mercy, Esparza had stopped defending and wanted to be somewhere else. That isn’t what happens in most Joanna Jedrzejczyk fights.
Her previous two octagon performances, against Julianna Lima and Claudia Gadelha went to decision, and there are some who remain unconvinced that she should have been given the decision over Gadelha.
Jessica Penne provides a different sort of test. She has only been beaten twice in fourteen professional fights, and neither of those defeats saw her stopped due to strikes.
Penne would have a massive edge should she be able to drag the fight to the mat and utilise her jiu jitsu. The problem for Penne is that her conventional wrestling is not one of her strengths, and trying to work throws and trips from the clinch against someone with Jedrzejczyk’s level of muay thai might pose problematic.
What Penne has, which Esparza didn’t, is a more well rounded arsenal. If she is unable to take the fight to the mat, she has ever improving stand up skills to rely on. Penne has an excellent jab and can work nice combinations. That probably won’t be enough to hang with Jedrzejczyk on the feet, but, it should hold back the sort of overwhelming assault that many are predicting, at least in the first couple of rounds.
Ultimately, I expect Jedrzejczyk to be able to keep the fight standing and come out on top in most of the exchanges. What happens in the clinch will be key, but, I would expect Jedrzejczyk to win and probably stop Penne in rounds three through five.
Prediction: Joanna Jedrzejczyk def. Jessica Penne (4th round TKO)
