Three weeks into the season, it’s still too early to really tell what hot starters are for real or what slow starters are actually bad, instead of just slumping. Either way, with injuries and slumping superstars *cough* Edwin Encarnacion *cough cough*, it might be best to “ride the streak” of the hot starters while your cold starters get their act together on your bench. Here is your Week 3 Fantasy Baseball Stock Report.
WEEK 3 FANTASY BASEBALL STOCK REPORT
WEEK THREE PLAYERS’ STOCK ON THE RISE:
Alfredo Simon, SP, Detroit Tigers
Simon shocked a lot of folks last year when the long time relief pitcher turned in a stellar first half of 2014 pitching in the Cincinnati Reds’ starting rotation. During that first half he posted a 2.70 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP. The second half, however, wasn’t quite as stellar, as he posted a 4.52 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP. He finished the year with a 3.44 ERA and a 4.05 xFIP, suggesting that even when he was good, a lot of it had to do with luck.
These numbers gave a lot of fantasy owners pause coming into 2015, especially since Simon was now pitching for the Detroit Tigers in the much more treacherous AL. He’s still shocking folks though. Through 4 starts in 2015, his ERA and WHIP stand at 1.65 and 0.95, respectively. His xFIP currently stands at 3.64, so be ready for another collapse, but it might not hurt to ride the streak and use him in the right matchups until that collapse happens.
Addison Russell, 2B/SS, Chicago Cubs
The Cubs surprised a lot of people around baseball when they called up consensus top-5 overall prospect Addison Russell on April 21st versus the Pittsburgh Pirates. Most scouts and “insiders” did not expect to see Russell in the big leagues until next year, or September of this year at the very earliest, but the Cubs decided to give him a shot. They had a hole at second base, so they tried Russell (a shortstop) there for five games at AAA before calling him up, showing how much confidence they have in the 21-year-old. He profiles as a Starlin Castro-type offensively, with a little more power and a little less speed. He should be owned in almost all formats, despite just 4 hits in his first 25 PAs.
Anthony DeSclafani, SP, Cincinnati Reds
For some, including the legendary Eno Sarris over at Fangraphs, DeSclafani was a favorite deep-deep sleeper pick. Most saw his struggles after his call-up for the Marlins in late 2015 and wrote him off, especially since he was now pitching at “hitter-friendly” Great American Ballpark, but the few that were on the DeSclafani train saw his raw stuff and loads of talent and thought that he could break out in 2015. So far, they’ve been right. Through 4 starts, the young righty has an ERA of 1.04, a WHIP of 0.77, and has struck out 21 batters through 26 innings. Get him now if he’s still available.
Chris Young, OF, New York Yankees
Chris Young may find himself getting more and more playing time in the future if he keeps this up. Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury have left field and center field locked up as long as they’re healthy, but if Young keeps hitting like he does when he gets the chance (.296/.356/.611 with 9 R, 4 HR, 10 RBI), he could push Carlos Beltran, who looks awful (.167/.227/.283, 5, 0, 7), out of the lineup completely. He’s worth a pickup in deeper leagues right now but could be fully ownable in all formats in the near future.
Carlos Martinez, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
The biggest question marks with Martinez as a stud pitching prospect were the quality of his changeup, his walk rate, and his ability to get lefties out. So far, the changeup looks good, the walks are slightly down, and while his righty-lefty splits are still wide, he has improved slightly. Through 3 starts and one 1-inning relief appearance, Martinez has a 1.35 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 21 strikeouts in 20 innings of work. Maybe the youngster could step into the vacant “ace” role on the Cardinals with Adam Wainwright out for the season?
Also keep an eye on:
Nick Martinez, SP, Texas Rangers
Hector Santiago, SP, LA Angels
Zack Cozart, SS, Cincinnati Reds
Mark Teixeira, 1B, NY Yankees
Adeiny Hechavarria, SS, Miami Marlins
WEEK THREE PLAYERS’ STOCK ON THE FALL:
Danny Santana, SS/OF, Minnesota Twins
Santana broke out for the Twins last year, slashing .319/.353/.472 with 7 homers and 20 steals in his rookie season. Few thought that he could repeat those numbers this year, though, due to his astronomical .405 BABIP. I don’t think anyone thought he would be this bad, however. Through 16 games and 69 PAs in 2015, Santana is slashing .231/.242/.277 with no homers and just one steal. He also has ZERO walks. He’s not contributing in any way offensively right now and is droppable in all but the deepest of mixed leagues and AL-only leagues.
Chris Tillman, SP, Baltimore Orioles
The normally reliable Tillman has gotten off to a rocky start in 2015 and has put up a 7.58 ERA through 4 starts and 19 innings pitched. He has faced some pretty formidable offenses (Boston once and Toronto twice), so I’ll cut him some slack there, but he’s also walked as many batters as he’s struck out. This tells me that his current issues go beyond tough competition. Still, Tillman has a pretty good track record over the past few years, so if you still own him, my advice would be to hold onto him for now with the hopes he gets back to his normal self.
Steve Pearce, 1B/OF/DH, Baltimore Orioles
The emergence of Jimmy Paredes is cutting into his playing time, but I doubt Steve Pearce’s early slump has Buck Showalter struggling with the decision of whether or not to pencil him into the lineup right now. Steve Pearce enjoyed a career best year in 2014 as a 31-year-old who had bounced around the league before landing with Baltimore. It’s likely that 2014 was the best that we will see from Pearce, and his early season struggles along with decreased playing time make him borderline droppable in most leagues.
Cody Allen, RP, Cleveland Indians
Allen has simply not looked good so far in 2015. He has one clean inning in 7 appearances and has gotten rocked for 4 runs in one outing on two separate occasions. Despite this, he still has the support of manager Terry Francona, according to Francona. Considering this, his excellent skills, and the lack of a real threat to the closer job in Cleveland’s bullpen, Allen is still worth holding on to. For now.
Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies
I feel like it’s not a stretch to predict that Utley’s .113 batting average through 72 PAs will go up. Yes, he’s pretty old and his knees are shot, but his BABIP is all the way down at .096 while his contact rates are all on par with his career numbers. By all accounts he’s also hitting the ball pretty hard, it just seems he’s been unlucky so far in 2015. If he’s available in your league, he’s a great buy-low candidate, and if he’s been dropped, go ahead and scoop him up and stash him until he catches fire.
Also keep an eye on:
Rougned Odor, 2B, Texas Rangers
Eric Aybar, SS, LA Angels
Matt Shoemaker, SP, LA Angels
Rick Porcello, SP, Boston Red Sox
Jose Quintana, SP, Chicago White Sox
