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The NHL Draft Lottery will be held today to determine the order of one of the most anticipated drafts in recent history. With two generational talents set to be taken, you almost can’t lose as long as you end up with one of the top two picks.
Want to know how excited people are of Connor McDavid (or Jack Eichel, of course)? The Buffalo Sabres fan base booed their own team when they won a game, as they felt they could potentially miss out on finishing with the worst pick if they played too good.
Both players – McDavid and Eichel – are worth all of the hype, showing that they have the skillset to be that franchise changer for the organization that was’ lucky’ enough to draft one of them, but does that guarantee a turnover into a contender?
Recent history would have you say that, no, in fact just because you are getting the first overall pick isn’t a sure fire ticket to successful.
NHL Draft Lottery: Top Pick Isn’t Sure Fire Path To Success
Just ask the Edmonton Oilers, who despite a span of three consecutive years drafting first overall, find themselves in the thick of the McDavid sweepstakes. Finishing with the third worst record in the league has given the Oilers an 11.5% chance of jumping up and nabbing the first pick.
The Pittsburgh Penguins had the first overall pick twice in a three year span (had the second pick in between), and while they won the Cup in 2009 they have been a virtual playoff non-factor since then. And that’s with Sidney Crosby – the player that McDavid is often compared to.
Now look at the mess the Penguins are in, after years of bad drafting/trading draft picks leaving Crosby’s support razor thin outside the rest of the core. The team has had to rely on bargain bin free agents and hope they have bounce back seasons.
In fact, since 2000 only one other first overall pick has won the Stanley Cup outside of the two on the Penguins (Marc-Andre Fleury the other). Patrick Kane was taken first by the Chicago Blackhawks in 2007, and has been an instrumental part of both Stanley Cup victories.
But Kane was hardly the lone wolf on the Blackhawks team. He was supported by a big supporting cast, both high draft picks and low, that allowed Chicago to come together as a team and win the Cup.
It’s who a team takes in the later rounds, and adding free agents to round out the team that wins the Stanley Cup. The Detroit Red Wings haven’t picked in the top ten since 1991 (Martin Lapointe) – the same year they started their record setting playoff appearance streak.
Instead of ‘flunking’ on purpose to get their hands on a generational talent, Detroit has drafted and developed late round picks into superstars – like sixth round pick Pavel Datsyuk.
An organization is going to change when the lottery is announced – two if you want to be technical. They get to start anew from a year that they would like to forget with a new face of the franchise.
But despite all the marketing that will be poured into him, one man – no matter the skill set – will completely turn around an entire organization. Asking to do so is almost a crime against the young player taken.
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