UFC on FOX 15 emanates live on Fox on Saturday night from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. Last Word on Sports MMA crew – Trent Dozier, Michael Hutchinson, Stephen Rivers and Stephanie Schneider – bring you their picks and analysis for the main card fights.
Lyoto Machida vs Luke Rockhold
Picking Machida: Dozier, Hutchinson
Picking Rockhold: Rivers, Schneider
Rivers: “I’ve spent countless hours trying to figure this fight out with tape study. Honestly, it’s all been a complete waste of time. I can’t really get far beyond this being a real pick’em fight. Machida’s mystique as an unsolvable problem was washed away in the first Shogun Rua fight, but he still presents an awkward problem for most fighters. Luke Rockhold is a lot better than most fighters though. I’ve picked Rockhold for no other reason than because he’s a bit younger and seems really hungry to get himself a title shot. It is not a confident pick though. Despite being 36, there is really no evidence to suggest that Machida is slowing down. At that age, fighters can take significant drops between fights, and against someone as talented as Rockhold, even being slightly off the pace can cost you. I like Rockhold for a late stoppage in the championship rounds.”
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza vs Chris Camozzi
Picking Jacare: Dozier, Hutchinson, Rivers, Schneider
Picking Camozzi: none
Schneider: “These two have faced each other before, with Jacare getting the victory in their first encounter. Jacare has been on a 7 fight win streak since losing to Luke Rockhold in 2011 in Strikeforce. Chris Camozzi has lost four of his last six fights, one of those losses being to Jacare. Camozzi is good on his feet, whereas Jacare is good everywhere. Without a doubt, Camozzi has stepped up his ground game, but is it enough to get the win over Jacare? I think not. I’m going with Jacare for the win.”
Cub Swanson vs Max Holloway
Picking Swanson: Hutchinson, Schneider
Picking Holloway: Dozier, Rivers
Hutchinson: “The reason this fight card has so many people excited is that every fight on the main card (before Yoel Romero’s injury) is a fight where either fighter could win. The same is the case for Swanson vs Holloway. You have Swanson, a WEC veteran, who just came off one of his worst performances against Frankie Edgar. Then you have Max Holloway coming off of five straight wins after losing a decision to current title challenger Conor McGregor. This is a big fight for Holloway as a win could propel him into the top 5 of the division. Swanson will be looking to make a statement against Holloway after his last performance, and the bout should be a back and forth slug fest. Swanson’s striking is tighter than Holloway’s, and I think his cage experience will give him the edge.”
Paige VanZant vs Felice Herrig
Picking VanZant: Dozier, Hutchinson, Rivers
Picking Herrig: Schneider
Dozier: “This will be a fun bout to open the main card with. VanZant is the UFC’s new “it” girl, and if she can get a win here, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that she fights Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship next. But first she has to get past the experienced Herrig. Both women will look to keep this on the feet, with Herrig being the more likely candidate to attempt a takedown. Herrig is a solid fighter, and her best attribute is arguably her experience, but I don’t think the UFC would put her in the cage with VanZant if they thought she could beat her. I think the younger VanZant out strikes Herrig and defends the takedown, leading to an obvious decision win, maybe even a third round knockout.”
