The St. Louis Blues have a lot to be happy about after finishing this year’s regular season with a record of 51-24-7. They were able to capture the highly-contested Central Division crown with 109 points, clinching their fourth straight playoff appearance in the process. In those last four years, the Blues have won only one playoff series. Shockingly enough, they did manage to take a 2-0 series lead in the past two series that they’ve been involved in, but failed to win another contest over the ensuing eight games spanning over two years. Two years ago, it was the Los Angeles Kings; last year, it was the Chicago Blackhawks.
On the other side, the Minnesota Wild are arguably the hottest team in hockey despite finishing in the first wildcard spot in the Western Conference. After acquiring goaltender Devan Dubnyk, head coach Mike Yeo’s club amassed an astonishing record of 28-9-3, giving them their third consecutive trip to the postseason. In a similar spot in the 2014 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Wild shocked the Central Division-winning Colorado Avalanche and advanced to the second round, only to be knocked out by the Chicago Blackhawks in six games.
THE MATCHUP: WILD VERSUS BLUES
The first game of the regular season between Minnesota and St. Louis needed to be decided by a shootout, where the Blues picked up the extra point in late November by a score of 3-2. Two games in March resulted in four points for the Wild, and zero for the Blues. Minnesota won 3-1 on the 14th, and just a week later, stomped the Blues 6-3. On April 11th, the final contest between the two Central Division rivals, the Blues were able to secure a victory by a score of 4-2. Granted, their matchup last Saturday included various starters rested on both sides, the Blues were still able to secure a victory thanks to Alexander Steen and Vladimir Tarasenko making their returns to the lineup.
While the season series between these two clubs is evened up at two wins apiece, it is necessary to note that the Wild have only lost one out of three games against St. Louis with Dubnyk in net.
OFFENSE
The Blues ranked 5th in the league averaging 2.92 goals/game while the Wild sit in 12th in that category with an average of 2.77. Both these teams have players who finished the regular season in the top 10 for the Rocket Richard race. For St. Louis, it was Russian phenom Vladimir Tarasenko, as the 23-year-old scored 37 goals. In Minnesota, Zach Parise led by example, both on and off the scoresheet. The Minneapolis native potted 33. Beyond their top scorers, however, these two teams are deep offensively.
Jaden Schwartz (who was drafted two picks before Tarasenko in the first round of the 2010 NHL Entry Draft) hit his career-high in points with 63. Steen continued to put up big numbers offensively, registering 64. Team captain David Backes along with Tarasenko, Steen and Schwartz scored over 20 goals this regular season. $7 million dollar man Paul Stastny had a productive first year (46 points in 74 games) with the Blues in a lessened role, but his purpose on this young St. Louis club could be elevated now that the postseason has rolled around. T.J. Oshie can’t be forgotten either, as he just missed the 20-goal mark with 19 on the year, but added 36 assists. St. Louis comes with a balanced offensive approach, and it’s been able to make defenses absolutely miserable.
Minnesota’s Jason Zucker, Nino Niederreiter, Thomas Vanek, and Parise had 20+ goals, leading the Wild’s impressive rush-attack. Jason Pominville finished second on the team with 54 points, while captain Mikko Koivu had 48. Adding former Blue Chris Stewart at the trade deadline has worked out well for the Wild, giving them a terrific blend of grit and skill to an already productive offense. Charlie Coyle, Justin Fontaine, and Kyle Brodziak are also able to contribute, giving Minnesota one of their deepest lineups in years and a healthy one at that. Brodziak, Zucker, and Matt Cooke battled long-term injuries towards the end of the season, but are available for the postseason. Jordan Schroeder and Erik Haula have impressive speed, an aspect which can be the difference-maker in an extremely defensive series like this one will turn out to be.
DEFENSE
St. Louis boasts one of the most stacked defensive cores in the entire National Hockey League. Kevin Shattenkirk has developed into a Norris Trophy candidate, and would still be in the running if an abdominal injury hadn’t sidelined him for over a month. He still has 44 points in 56 games. Alex Pietrangelo has over 40 points as well, and has a knack to settle the defense entirely and play the puck out with ease, especially in tight areas. Jay Bouwmeester adds stability and responsibility with his play, while his flexibility allows coach Ken Hitchcock to pair #19 with almost anyone. Carl Gunnarsson adds an element of speed to the back-end in St. Louis, while Barret Jackman brings a physical presence. Although, two acquisitions at this year’s trade deadline have attributed to the Blues solid defense in Zbynek Michalek and Robert Bortuzzo. Michalek is an excellent puck-mover and shot-blocking machine, while Bortuzzo separates opponents off the puck with his towering 6’4″ 214 pound frame.
Minnesota’s defense ranks among the top five in shots against and goals against per game, but you can’t talk about the Wild’s success in that regard without mentioning Ryan Suter. The 30-year-old averages over 29 minutes a night and could hit 40 if a postseason game extends to an overtime or two. Suter’s partner, Jonas Brodin, sits at a +21 on the year and is reliable in almost any game scenario. Marco Scandella and Jared Spurgeon round out the second pair for the Wild, a tandem that is able to get the puck moving north and quickly. Matthew Dumba at 20 years old gets set for his first taste of playoff action, as he has had a remarkable turnaround to his season. A first-round pick in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft, Dumba makes timely hits with efficiency, as he has sat in the penalty box just once in his past twelve games. Jordan Leopold, another former Blue, will play with Dumba on the left side. At 34 years old, Leopold reinforces a veteran presence in the locker room, which helps his partner on the third pair immensely.
GOALTENDING
It’s another roller coaster of a goaltending controversy in St. Louis thanks to rookie Jake Allen’s emergence into the National Hockey League. The 24-year-old has 22 wins this season with a save percentage of .913. Brian Elliott was given the starting role in between the pipes by the organization at the start of the season after previous #1 goalie Ryan Miller walked, but perhaps lost it to Allen over the past few weeks. However, Elliott still has 26 wins to his name this year, and ranks ninth in goals against/game with 2.26. The question is: do you go with the hot hand or experience? Allen just has one minute of postseason play, and that came in the 2011-2012 season. Elliott has appeared in 14 playoff games, assisting the Blues in advancing to the second round that same year. Both options in net are able to come up with victories, but Ken Hitchcock has announced that he will go with Jake Allen in game 1. With that said, it would not be surprising to see both goaltenders used in the series.
Mike Yeo, on the other hand, knows exactly who will start the postseason in the goaltender position for his club, and that is Devan Dubnyk. Arguably the Wild’s downright savior, Dubnyk was 9-5-1 with the Arizona Coyotes before being shipped off to Minnesota in early January. In 39 consecutive starts with his new team, the Regina, SK native tacked on 27 wins. He has never played in the postseason, but he is one of the best feel-good stories of the 2014-2015 NHL season along with Ottawa Senators goaltender Andrew Hammond. If not for Carey Price’s spectacular run with Montreal Canadiens, Dubnyk could have been in the running for the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top netminder. He ranks 2nd in save percentage (.929) and goals against/game (2.07) while adding seven shutouts to his list of accomplishments. Without Dubnyk, the Wild might not even be in the playoffs let alone the Stanley Cup discussion. Because of #40, they are.
COACHING
Ken Hitchcock leads the Blues from behind the bench and has brought them to the postseason in all four seasons he has been in St. Louis. Under Hitch, the Blues are 8-13 in the playoffs with a mere one series victory. His tenure may be coming to an end shortly if his club is unable to do damage in the postseason, as fans have been calling for his head one day and praising him the next. 47 years without a Stanley Cup will do that to a fan base. Regardless, Hitch’s message has been continuously bought-in by the players and thus allows them to play a responsible checking game in order to spring the offensive firepower that the Blues possess up and down their lineup.
In Minnesota, Mike Yeo was on the hot seat. Not just on it, but at the edge of it. On January 14th, the Wild were 12th in the Western Conference and had been spiraling out of control. This caused Yeo to go on an absolute tirade during a team practice on January 7th filled with expletives and stick-slamming. The ice had to be resurfaced later thanks to Yeo’s antics. While some may have seen this as a head coach losing the room, it perhaps sparked the brightest of fires underneath the Wild, and they haven’t looked back. Oh yeah, they also acquired a goaltender from Arizona seven days later.
Yeo has revolutionized the Minnesota Wild over the four years he’s been their guy, changing defensive schemes and adjusting to the high-octane pace the Central Division presents. Rumors upon rumors were thrown at him shortly after his blow-up, but he remained calm with the press and fought through adversity. Now, they’re 16 wins away from their first Stanley Cup in franchise history.
SPECIAL TEAMS
From a special teams aspect, the Blues powerplay is the best in the Western Conference, and fourth in the NHL overall at 22.3%. Steen and Shattenkirk are the catalysts of the man-advantage, opening up space for Tarasenko to let his blistering wrist shot go just above the circles. Backes leads the team with 10 PP goals and creates a screen for the goaltender from right outside the crease and has an active stick to re-direct pucks with precision. Stastny and Oshie are along the boards hoping to funnel pucks in deep, allowing for smooth transitions within the offensive zone while keeping the fluidity of the powerplay alive with their impressive forecheck.
The Blues penalty kill was once as low as 23rd in the league, but improved to over 90% throughout the last quarter of the regular season. Marcel Goc and Steve Ott excel in this particular area, blocking shots and preventing the opposition from setting up in the offensive zone. Jackman is the go-to defenseman to keep forwards out of Elliott/Allen’s face and prevent deflections. Michalek, being as reliable as he is, takes away scoring chances with opportune poke checks in order to keep the puck out of high-scoring areas.
The penalty kill in Minnesota has been their absolute strong suit, as they lead the NHL at 86.3%. Haula and Brodziak are the most efficient forward pair on the PK for the Wild. The two do an excellent job of keeping the point men to the outside boards, limiting prime scoring opportunities going towards Dubnyk. Defenseman Nate Prosser, who will most likely be watching Game 1 from the pressbox, was utilized by Yeo significantly on the man-disadvantage. Scandella chews up PK minutes as well for Minnesota, clearing out bodies in front and allowing his goaltender to see every shot. Slotting in Ryan Suter in penalty killing situations doesn’t hurt, either.
As for their powerplay, Minnesota was 27th in the league (15.8%). Parise leads the team in PP goals with 11, but Vanek particularly has found great success on the power play in his first season in with the Wild (5 goals and 12 assists). The key for the Wild is to enter the zone easily without being forced to dump the puck into the opposition’s offensive zone. If they are using their speed to cut through the middle of the ice, then odds are Minnesota gains the blue line and is able to set up the powerplay. They have a plethora of skilled forwards who can finish around the net, notably Stewart and Pominville. But, if they move to the outside and find themselves unable to break past the defense on the initial rush, they’ll most likely see the puck thrown down into their zone and be forced to regroup.
WHO TO LOOK OUT FOR
For the Blues: Vladimir Tarasenko
Last year, Tarasenko had missed the last 15 games of the regular season after suffering from a broken hand. He then lead the Blues in goals in the postseason with four against Chicago in six games, including one in Game 2 that sent the game to OT with less than five seconds remaining. With a healthy and more lethal #91 in the lineup for St. Louis, the sky is the limit. He is an absolute difference-maker and can take over a game with the slight flick of the wrist. The man they call “Vova” is able to stickhandle through traffic with ease, and is a very underrated playmaker. Along with his 37 goals, he also had 36 assists this year. We’ve all heard the comparisons this season to Brett Hull and Sergei Federov, but those superstars continued to perform in the postseason and won Stanley Cups. If Tarasenko wants to remain in that conversation, he’ll have to propel his team past the first round.
For the Wild: Devan Dubnyk
Nobody on the Minnesota Wild be looked under the microscope closer than Devan Dubnyk. This entire season has revolved around his play and the question of if he can keep it up when it matters most. He silenced critics by beating St. Louis, Chicago and Nashville, the three teams ahead of the Wild in the Central Division standings. While no one particular aspect of his play can explain this improbable run, Dubnyk’s technique to goaltending known as “head tracking” has assisted him in becoming more square to every shot he faces. Rarely you will see the 6’6″ backstopper out of position and has unparalleled lateral movement from post to post. It’s tough to doubt Dubnyk in this series, due to his phenomenal play over the past couple of months. There seems as if there is no offense that can beat him on a consistent basis, but time will tell if he can continue to cause opposing forwards to shake their heads in utter befuddlement.
Final Say:
An even-matched series like this one between the Blues and the Wild is tough for any hockey mind to make a definitive statement on who has the overall advantage. The Blues have become a streaky team in the postseason when it comes to goal scoring, and with Dubnyk playing as well as he has been, there’s no room for error in St. Louis. Minnesota’s special teams need to hold up if they want to play a tight-checking game with the Blues because if the PK isn’t doing its job, it forces them to contend with a more cautious approach. St. Louis thrives on controlling pucks below the goal line and applying their physicality to draw penalties. Many factors can determine a win for either side, but Steve Ott said it best when describing both of these teams and the playoff atmosphere as a whole:
“The team that cracks first usually ends up on the losing end of things.”
Game on.
My prediction? Blues in 7.
And the rest of the LWOS Hockey Dept?
Ben Kerr: Blues in 7.
Shawn Wilken: Blues in 6.
Charlie Clark: Blues in 6.
Tyler Shea: Wild in 7.
Matt Ricks: Wild in 6.
Markus Meyer: Wild in 7.
David Stevenson: Blues in 7.
Dave Gove: Blues in 7.
