As the regular season has come to an end, Last Word On Sports analyzes every playoff series heading into this week’s action. In the first installment, we take a look at the matchups in five categories: Offense, defense, goaltending, coaching and special teams. We also run down the players to look out for and give our final assessment on how the series will pan out. In the second portion, we will analyze what went down in the series, how the matchups led to the outcome and cover all important storylines.
The Red Wings and Lightning are meeting each other in the playoffs for the first time in their respective histories. Many storylines have been implemented into this best-of-seven, including the headliner of former Wings captain Steve Yzerman being the builder of the team looking to bring down the team he spent 23 seasons with.
The Matchup: Red Wings Versus Lightning
The Detroit Red Wings are back in the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the 24th consecutive season, two more years than the Tampa Bay Lightning have been in existence. It was a fight to the finish again for the Wings, as despite getting to 100 points for the 13th time in the last 14 seasons, they limped to the finish with an 8-9-3 record. They were fortunate to be healthier, and hitting triple digit point totals exceeded many expectations.
The Lightning are well-oiled machine under head coach Jon Cooper. His pupils love to play for him and it showed on the ice, as the team compiled a 50-24-8 record, earning home ice this round and possibly beyond. For the Lightning, home ice has been essential, as they were an NHL best 32-8-1 compared to an 18-16-7 record away from Amalie Arena. Against the Atlantic, its been even more staggering as the team posted a 21-5-4 mark, taking three of four games from Detroit.
Offense
Henrik Zetterberg led the way with 17 goals and 66 points and Pavel Datsyuk was a point-per-game player, posting 26 goals and 65 points in 63 games. 24-year old Tomas Tatar enjoyed a breakout season in which he potted 29 goals and 56 points while placing 7th out of all players in Corsi rating at a +328 mark. Gustav Nyquist had another solid season, lighting the lamp 27 times and posting 54 points. Overall as a team, the Wings finished 10th in the league in terms of goals per game at a 2.82 clip. Two big losses up front could be Justin Abdelkader, at least for the start of the series, and Erik Cole for the entire playoffs.
There was no team that scored at the rate the Lightning did in 2014-15. 3.16 goals per game including 185 scored in 5-on-5 play is best in the league in terms of both categories. The obvious juggernaut in the form of Steven Stamkos had 43 goals(13 on the powerplay) and 72 points, tied for first on the team, but the club also boasted five 50+ point scorers, 10 double-digit goal scorers, and possibly the best line in hockey: Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson, and Ondrej Palat combined for 74 goals and 200 points.
For as many goals as Tampa puts in the net however, they ranked 19th in terms of shots per game firing 29.6, the same rate as their opponents. The team ranked 6th in terms of Corsi behind (Shot attempts coming from behind in the game), and 5th in terms of Corsi overall with a +412 rating.
Advantage: Tampa Bay
Defense
Niklas Kronwall led the charge yet again for Detroit with 44 points and logged 23:50 of ice time per game. Danny Dekeyser had arguably the best season of his career in which he finished 30th among all defensemen in Corsi and potted 31 points. Marek Zidlicky was a point producer after coming over from New Jersey at the deadline , potting 11 in 21 games in the role of the right-handed shot the Wings were looking for. The team finished middle of the pack in terms of goals allowed per game at a 2.57 clip, 8th in the league in terms of shots on goal allowed at a 28.3 rate, and first overall in terms of Corsi against total. It’s an intriguing matchup: the highest scoring team against the best team in terms of allowing fewest shots to the net.
When the Lightning brought in veterans Jason Garrison and Anton Stralman to complement their number-one defenseman, Victor Hedman, and the rest of a young blueline, the team just got that deeper and seasoned. Stralman has exceeded expectations offensively, netting 39 points while averaging 21:56 ice time. Hedman, after an injury that put him out for more than a quarter of the season, had another solid campaign, netting ten goals and 38 points in 59 games. The Lightning finished 12th overall in goals against per game allowing 2.51 per contest, and 5th in terms of shots on goal allowed per game at 27.9 per game.
Advantage: Detroit
Goaltending
Inconsistency on the part of Jimmy Howard caused him to lose his job a couple times and young 23-year-old Petr Mrazek failed to grab the job when he had the chance. After Howard’s soft game against Montreal in the 2nd to last game of the season, Mrazek started game 82 and looked dominant in doing so, giving his coach every reason to start him in Game 1 with a 35-save shutout. Mrazek may be thin on playoff experience in the NHL with this being his first playoff start, but in reality, he has more experience than Tampa Bay starter Ben Bishop, who only has one AHL playoff game of action due to his injury last year.
Bishop should feel a little bit more eager than he ever has been in his NHL career. Bishop has been the starter all year for the Lightning, breaking his own career-high and franchise record set last year with 40 wins. His save percentage took a dip to .916 and goals against jumped to 2.32, but he should feel an extra sense of confidence going into this series knowing he’ll get a chance to be healthy as “the guy.” Last time he faced the Wings, the team beat him for three goals on 22 shots. If Bishop gets injured again, the Lightning also have promising, young Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Advantage: Tampa Bay
Coaching
Mike Babcock has been in the business of coaching for a while now, and has had plenty of playoff appearances to his credit. A Stanley Cup Final appearance in 2003 in his first year in the NHL is a testament to that. He would win one in ’08 and reach one more in ’09, while continuing to soar up the head coaching ranks with a .649 winning percentage with the Red Wings. After an injury-riddled campaign and Jack Adams-worthy coaching job last year, Babcock again had to steer the team through adversity and struggle in the last few weeks of the season, getting to 100 points and clinching a third spot in the division.
Cooper is certainly one of the more interesting coaches in the league. After 12 years bouncing around various leagues, he got the call Yzerman to coach the then Lightning affiliate, the Norfolk Admirals, where he won a Calder Cup. So far through 180 games coached for the Lightning, he’s put up 101 wins and was named a Jack Adams nominee last year. This year, he will look to build off of last year’s playoff disappointment with a strong run this season.
Advantage:Detroit
Special Teams
The Detroit powerplay finished with the second-best conversion rate at 23.8%, but it struggled to end the season. Still, they finished with the most power play goals in the league at 70, converting on 294 opportunities, the most given in the league. The penalty kill, once the best in the league earlier in the season, dipped to 17th killing 80.9% of sin bin visits. Much of this has been attributed to Detroit taking a lot of penalties, 288 total, 31 more than the Lightning.
Despite the amount of weapons Tampa Bay has, they finished middle of the pack in the power play, converting on 18.8% of their opportunities. Stamkos potted 13 of the 53 goals on the power play, and is dangerous as always manning the faceoff circles and the point. The Lightning penalty kill was ranked 7th in the league killing 83.7% of the 257 penalties taken, and going up against a top-scoring power play in the league will be a sizable challenge for a team that can put the puck in the net no problem 5-on-5.
Advantage: Detroit
Who To Watch Out For
For the Red Wings: Petr Mrazek
It’s got to be the goalie in the Wings’ crease that has all eyes on him. Mrazek has been in big-game environments before and has performed well, amid some minor hiccups that every young goalie goes through. It will be interesting to see how the 23-year old handles the pressure of a playoff environment at the highest level playing one of the most important positions for any team’s hopes at a deep run.
For the Lightning: The Triplets
It’s no secret now that Kucherov, Johnson, and Palat are budding superstars and have the chance to turn a series around in one shift. Containing this line, if possible, will be key for the Wings if they want to have any shot at making it past the first round and avoiding another first round exit. They also have to be aware of that Stamkos fellow at the same time.
Final Say
This series will be closer than many think it will be. It may even sway in the way of the lower seeded team. These two are evenly matched outside of the goal scoring and at the end of the day one team has to beat the other four times. Stifling Tampa Bay’s attack will be key for Detroit and if they can do that while having Mrazek (or Howard) shut the door when they need them to and can score timely goals on the other end, it could be an upset. If Tampa continues to execute and breaks through the Detroit defense with prolific goal scoring on an uneasy goaltending situation, it could be a shorter series, as many expect it to be.
Series Predictions From Our Hockey Department:
Griffin Schroeder: Red Wings in 6
David Stevenson: Lightning in 5
Dave Gove: Lightning in 5
Markus Meyer: Lightning in 6
Charlie O’Connor Clarke: Lightning in 5
Ben Kerr: Lightning in 5
Tyler Shea: Red Wings in 6
Ken Hill: Lightning in 5
