As the regular season has come to an end, Last Word On Sports analyzes every playoff series heading into this week’s action. In the first installment, we take a look at the matchups in five categories: Offense, defense, goaltending, coaching and special teams. We also run down the players to look out for and give our final assessment on how the series will pan out. In the second portion, we will analyze what went down in the series, how the matchups led to the outcome and cover all important storylines.
The Montreal Canadiens are taking on the Ottawa Senators in the first round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs, which will be a rematch of the 2013 playoffs where the Senators beat the Canadiens in five games. These two teams have a lot of history between each other. Since the lockout-shortened year of 2012-13, the Senators have a record of 8-5 versus the Canadiens, excluding the playoffs, with a record of 3-1 this year, in favor of Ottawa. Many fans believe that Montreal can’t beat them, but when it comes to the playoffs, all regular season series and any notions about who can beat who are thrown out the window.
The Matchup: Canadiens Versus Senators
Offense
Both teams have multiple 20 goal scorers on the roster, but two of the Senators were rookies this year, Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman. So it’s a toss up as to if they could continue the production in the post season. Hoffman may have troubles as he had only two assists in the last 10 games, Stone on the other hand had 13 points in his last 10 and finished on a nine-game point streak, Kyle Turris notched 12, and Erik Karlsson had 7.
Montreal had balanced scoring in the final 10 games, as Tomas Plekanec led the way with nine points, P.K Subban with eight, and Max Pacioretty (although it hasn’t been confirmed he will be back from his injury for the series) seven, while Brendan Gallagher and Alex Galchenyuk were tied with five each.
Overall, the Senators do own a bit of an advantage in offense, both scoring more (238 versus 221) and shooting more on net per game (31 shots-per-game versus 28.5), but it’s worth noting that Montreal is a more defensively coached team. Another advantage Montreal has is their overall faceoff win percentage. As a whole, they are winning 52.1 of their faceoffs, 4th in league, while Ottawa has a 48.2 percentage, 24th in league. This is a huge bonus to the Canadiens.
Advantage: Montreal
Defense
The Senators have a decent and youthful defense corps with six out of eight defenders that suited up for them this year being under 26. But they still didn’t manage to score much, only having two scoring over 20 points – Karlsson and sophomore surprise Cody Ceci. Past those two, it’ll be hard for them to generate enough offense to match Montreal on the blueline. They do have an advantage in hitting though, having three defensemen having over 100 hits, including Jared Cowen, who had 159 hits in just 54 games. He’ll be a big physical presence, should he suit up for them.
The Canadiens own the Senators on offense and a bit on defensive play too. Subban and Andrei Markov combined for 110 points, while adding up all eight Sens defensemen points gives us 146. The Habs also have Jeff Petry who has 22 points this season and should be a big time producer this postseason. While they are not big hitters, only Alexei Emelin has 200 hits and Subban is next with 97, the Canadiens are extremely effective at blocking shots, having four players (Markov, Subban, Tom Gilbert, and Emelin) with over 100 blocks, whereas the Sens have only two (Mark Borowiecki and Ceci). The better point production, especially how it’s a little more spread out, plus the shot blocking gives Montreal an advantage on defense.
Advantage: Montreal
Goaltending
When Craig Anderson and Robin Lehner both went down with injuries, their season looked like it was gone. They had to rely on an AHL goalie who had one game under his belt and had average numbers in the minors this year, Andrew Hammond. He surprised everybody though, having an incredible record of 20-1-2 through 24 games. While much of this is luck and no goalie has ever put up numbers like those over a full season, it is still impressive. But a breakdown is inevitable and it will be ugly once it does occur. The Senators do have Anderson back, but his season wasn’t going very well and he may prove to be just as ineffective.
Carey Price had the best year of his career, going 44-16-6. He has been one of the most consistent goalies in the league this year. His highlight reel is chocked full of “how in the world did he manage that?” saves. He is a huge reason that the Canadiens finished with 50 wins for the 7th time in franchise history and were the Atlantic Division champions. He is in the top-five in almost every goalie category and should be a lock for some new hardware, including the Vezina and the Hart. If you want to see a series difference maker, here he is.
Advantage: Montreal
Coaching
Dave Cameron took over from Paul Maclean only 27 games into the 2014-15 season after compiling a 11-11-5 record. Cameron was able to turn around what was looking to be a disappointing season and finished with a 32-15-1 record. His rookie trio of Hoffman, Stone, and Hammond (although he isn’t a true rookie, he would be classified as a first year player) have been a huge part of the turnaround, but Cameron does deserve credit for injecting life into the team just when they needed it.
A big portion of Montreal fans hate Michel Therrien for many reasons, but at the end of the day, he has brought the team to the playoffs each of his three seasons, including an inspiring run to the Eastern Conference Finals last year. Does that make him perfect? No. He still employs a dump and chase system for a team that would be much more suited for a possession style of hockey, he does get out-coached, and he sometimes doesn’t trust his young players as much as he should. But it doesn’t justify a firing. Even Mike Babcock makes mistakes. Therrien will need to adapt and be creative to pull out a win here.
Advantage: Ottawa
Special Teams
Both teams had an incredibly disappointing year on the power play, with Ottawa having a 0.3 percentage edge over Montreal, 16.8 % versus 16.5 %, respectively. While Montreal did score seven less goals on the powerplay than Ottawa, they did so in 72 less minutes. Montreal did have a better penalty kill with a 83.7% success rate, while Ottawa was 82.9%. So the two teams were very similar in terms of special teams, but one team will give in this series. Montreal has one of the best home powerplay records, so chances are they will be first to strike, considering the series starts in Montreal.
Advantage: Montreal
Who To Look Out For
For the Senators: Kyle Turris
Stone, Hoffman, and Hammond will be key to the Senators moving past the Canadiens, but all being first year players, it can be tough for first years to duplicate regular season success. Hammond’s luck will run out, but it’s a question of when. Turris is a force to be reckoned with and his last playoff run in 2012-13 saw him notch nine points in 10 games.
For the Canadiens: Lars Eller
Eller will look to build upon the dominating playoffs he had last spring, notching 13 points in 17 games. Pacioretty (if healthy), Subban, Galchenyuk, and Gallagher will be counted upon to make a difference. Rookie Jacob De La Rose has been a great surprise this year in 33 games, taking on a big defensive role and will be depended upon for more of the same.
Final Say
This series should prove to be a good one with numerous skilled players on both sides. Both goalies finished hot and have great records for 2014-15, although Hammond’s is in 40 less games. If the Canadiens can contain the Senators with good defense and don’t leave Price hanging out to dry, this should be their series to win in six games. But if they let Ottawa gain the momentum quick, they might be in trouble. The Canadiens versus Senators series won’t be a sweep, it’ll be a hard fought battle to the last buzzer.
Series Predictions From Our Hockey Department:
Tyler Shea: Canadiens in 6
Shawn Wilken: Canadiens in 6
Aaron Wrotkowski: Canadiens in 5
Mitch Tierny: Canadiens in 5
Ben Kerr: Canadiens in 6
David Stevenson: Senators in 7
Matt Ricks: Senators in 6
Ken Hill: Senators in 7
Charlie Clarke: Canadiens in 7
Cristiano Simonetta: Canadiens in 7
Dave Gove: Canadiens in 6
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