As the regular season has come to an end, Last Word On Sports analyzes every playoff series heading into this week’s action. In the first installment, we take a look at the matchups in five categories: Offense, defense, goaltending, coaching and special teams. We also run down the players to look out for and give our final assessment on how the series will pan out. In the second portion, we will analyze what went down in the series, how the matchups led to the outcome and cover all important storylines.
At the end of last season, it was very unlikely anyone would have predicted a playoff matchup between the Calgary Flames and the Vancouver Canucks. Both missed the playoffs last season – the Flames picked fourth overall, and the Canucks appeared to be in free-fall, past their window of opportunity, with a strange goaltending controversy, and stars who either wanted out of town, or weren’t producing.
However, the Canucks appear to have a little left in the tank, considering their turnaround under new coach Willie Desjardins, and look more like the Canucks of 2012 than 2013. Meanwhile, Calgary is one of the best Cinderella stories in the NHL, coming into the season with most fans expecting them to be in the Connor McDavid sweepstakes, and instead headed to the postseason for the first time since 2009.
The Matchup: Canucks Versus Flames
Vancouver met Calgary four times over the course of the regular season. The Canucks took the first two matchups, one in overtime, but the Flames won the last two games in regulation, giving them the slight edge in the season series. However, the Canucks finished ahead in the standings, so we’ll call that a wash.
Offense
Up front, both teams have some very exciting offensive talent. Vancouver boasts the NHL’s most dynamic family duo (sorry, Schenns and Staals), with the Sedin twins, who both finished top ten in league scoring – Daniel at eighth with 76 points, and Henrik tenth with 73. As well as a resurgence from the Swedish pair, the Canucks have received secondary scoring from other key pieces, like Radim Vrbata, who thrived after signing in Vancouver last summer, scoring 63 points. Another new piece, Nick Bonino, has been great as a second-line two-way centre, complementing Vancouver’s firepower. It will also be interesting to see how rookie Bo Horvat performs in his first playoffs, after a decent showing so far.
On the other hand, Calgary has become one of the NHL’s most entertaining teams, with their hard-working club mantra, combined with gifted young stars, like Sean Monahan, who had an impressive 31 goals and 62 points in his sophomore season, and Johnny Gaudreau, who is now in the conversation for the Calder Trophy, thanks to his 64 points – tied with Ottawa’s Mark Stone for tops in rookie scoring. Veteran Jiri Hudler is the third piece of the hot top line, and will be crucial with the playoff experience he brings. Calgary’s firepower will also be bolstered by last summer’s fourth overall pick, Sam Bennett, who they recently called up from Adirondack. The Flames finished the season strong, while Vancouver’s scoring has cooled off a little recently, despite still being formidable.
Advantage: Slight Flames
Defense
Vancouver ranked 17th in the league in goals against, but that number is likely deceiving. Four of their regular top six defensemen spent time sidelined with various injuries this season. However, they go into the playoffs healthy on the blueline. On the top pairing, Alex Edler brings a physical game that’s enormously important in playoff hockey, while Chris Tanev is excellent at moving the puck, complementing Edler well. Dan Hamhuis is a strong shutdown defenseman – a dying breed in today’s NHL – which gives his partner Yannick Weber more freedom with his more offensively-oriented game.
The Flames go into the postseason missing their captain and best defenseman, Mark Giordano, who probably would’ve been a candidate for the Norris trophy, had he not gone down in early March with a bicep tear. He leaves quite a significant gap on Calgary’s blueline – although he has been skating recently, so it’s possible he may return if his team advances past round one. Of course, not all is lost defensively without Giordano. Both Dennis Wideman and Kris Russell have shouldered the load on the top pairing well, allowing the Flames to stay hot. They’ve both posted career highs for points – Wideman with 56 and Russell with 34. Deryk Engelland and TJ Brodie have also stepped up in the captain’s absence. However, the loss of Giordano was a huge blow to the team, being the team’s unquestioned leader and star.
Advantage: Canucks
Goaltending
As is tradition in Vancouver, the Canucks’ goaltending situation has been intriguing this season. Ryan Miller signed in the offseason as a free agent and posted a .911 SV% before going down with a knee injury in February. He returned for the Canucks’ final regular season game, but still could be rusty from two months on the IR. He does, however, have 27 playoff wins under his belt, which could give him an edge over Eddie Lack. Lack, on the other hand, boasts a .921 save percentage, and was consistent in the final stretch of the season without Miller. The Canucks will most likely start with Lack, but may switch to Miller if the pressure is too much for the Swedish goalie.
The Flames have less of a debate about their number one – which could be a good or bad thing. Jonas Hiller, signed in the offseason after losing his starting job in Anaheim, has had a better season in Calgary – with a .918 SV% and a 2.36 GAA. However, last year he was replaced by Frederik Andersen and John Gibson after just six playoff games. Hiller has performed well in the postseason in the past – especially in 2008-09, when his .943 SV% took the Ducks to seven games in the second round. Karri Ramo is also a very competent backup, having just returned from injury. If need be, he can probably step in as well. Overall, Calgary’s tandem seems to have been more consistent this season, and Hiller has been hot recently – going 7-2-1 with a .936 SV% down the stretch.
Advantage: Slight Flames
Coaching
It was very clear to see the negative impact John Tortorella had on the Canucks last season, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2008. With new head coach Desjardins, Vancouver has rebounded impressively. His emphasis on four-line hockey has taken some pressure off the Sedin twins, allowing them to have much better seasons. Most players are producing, and the team is vastly improved on special teams.
Bob Hartley is in his third season with the Flames, and for a team that’s supposed to be rebuilding, they certainly don’t look like it. Calgary doesn’t boast the same kind of names that are acknowledged league-wide as stars, like some of the Canucks. However, the players have come together incredibly well, and the young group often looks like a team of veterans. The Flames have become known for their never-say-die attitude, having come back from numerous deficits throughout the season. It’s possible that Hartley will have a large impact on the series, grinding the Canucks down (especially in home games) with his line matching.
Advantage: Flames
Special Teams
Last season, Vancouver’s powerplay ranked 26th in the NHL, and their penalty kill 9th. This season, both have leaped up, to 9th and 2nd in the league, respectively. The powerplay especially has gone from one of their largest weaknesses to one of their greatest assets. Radim Vrbata has been a huge piece of that, his 12 powerplay goals putting him 9th in the NHL. The Sedins, Chris Higgins, Alex Burrows and Weber have all played important roles in helping the Canucks score on 19.3% of their powerplays. As for the penalty kill, they’re second best, successfully killing 85.7%. That’s due mostly to a defensive core of Edler, Tanev, and Hamhuis. It’s fortunate for them that the penalty kill is strong, as Vancouver took the 10th-most minor penalties in the league this season.
Calgary is not as strong in the special teams department. Their powerplay is 13th in the league at 18.8%, while their penalty kill is all the way down in 20th, at 80.6%. With a man advantage, they are certainly still dangerous, thanks largely to Monahan and Gaudreau. Defensively, however, the penalty kill hasn’t quite clicked. Unfortunately for the Canucks, though, the Flames are incredibly disciplined for such a young team, taking the second-fewest minor penalties in the entire NHL. As long as they maintain that, the special teams disparity may not be a big deal.
Advantage: Canucks
Who To Look Out For
For the Canucks: Radim Vrbata
Vrbata clicked almost instantly with his new team, posting a career high in points with 63, at 33 years old. He’s had a sort of bounce back year with a change of scenery, beating last year’s point total by 12. He’s very dangerous on the powerplay (for the few times Vancouver will get to use it), and he’s a good possession player, with a 51.3 CF%. He meshes well with pretty much any potential linemates – he’s seen time with Higgins and Bonino, as well as the Sedin twins. If he finds a scoring groove, he could swing the series in favour of the Canucks.
For the Flames: Johnny Gaudreau
“Johnny Hockey,” as he’s affectionately called, is an incredibly talented rookie. While many critics doubted his potential due to his size (generously listed as 5’9″ and 150 pounds), he’s proven that he won’t be bullied by larger opposition players. His fantastic skating ability, soft hands and creativity generate a huge amount of offense for the Flames, both at even strength and on the powerplay. His 40 assists are a product of maturity seldom seen at his age, which he shows both through discipline and a selfless style of play. 64 points for a rookie is very impressive, and the Flames will need him to keep scoring in the playoffs.
Final Say
This series is probably the hardest one to call out of all the first round matchups. Whichever way it goes, we can be sure it’ll be exciting. These teams are known to not like each other very much, to say the least. There are many factors in play which could turn the series either way, and both teams will be looking for anything to give them them a slight advantage. Last time these teams met in the playoffs was 2004, the year Calgary went to the Cup Finals (in fact, the last three times they’ve met, the winner advanced to the finals). It really would be completely justifiable to pick either team to win this series, but the Flames have been hot recently (pardon the pun), and in this case I believe youth and talent will beat experience. Flames in 7.
Series Predictions From Our Hockey Department
Markus Meyer: Canucks in 7
Tyler Shea: Flames in 5
Ben Kerr: Flames in 7
David Stevenson: Flames in 7
Dave Gove: Canucks in 6
Brandon Altomonte: Flames in 7
Shawn Wilken: Canucks in 6
Griffin Schroeder: Canucks in 7
Ken Hill: Canucks in 7
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