Since the conclusion of Round 19 of the Aviva Premiership, fans, pundits and coaches alike have been busy with their calculators in the annual number crunch, desperately working out all possible outcomes of the final three matches of the regular season. One more play-off contender realistically bit the dust on Sunday, as London Irish downed current 7th placed Sale Sharks. That leaves six teams battling it out for only four spots: Northampton Saints, Saracens, Bath, Exeter Chiefs, Leicester Tigers, and Wasps.
With Northampton almost mathematically guaranteed a top four spot, and Saracens and Bath not too far behind, it realistically means the Chiefs, Tigers and Wasps are in the ring, set to pull no punches in their respective claims for that crucial final play-off place.
Northampton Saints
The Saints have been perched on the peak of the Premiership table for nearly the whole season, having scythed down nearly all who have confronted them. However after their recent under-par results, including a defeat to Exeter and a hammering against Clermont Auvergne in the Champions Cup, the defending champions find themselves looking over their shoulder at in-form Saracens and Bath as they seek a top two finish, and subsequently, home advantage in the play-off. Their saving grace is that they face London Welsh in three weeks time in what will be, providing there isn’t a miracle, a win and a four-try bonus point.
They are currently on 67 points, and in their remaining fixtures, they face: Saracens (A) televised, London Welsh (H), and Leicester (A).
Saracens
The battle for second is as intriguing as the race for fourth – Saracens and Bath are the realistic candidates, with Saints, as aforementioned, hoping not to be overtaken by both. Saracens are currently buoyed by a seven-match winning streak in all competitions, including a gritty win against Racing Metro in Paris, and a victory in the LV= Cup final over Exeter. With Owen Farrell and Brad Barritt also returning from injury, they are on a well-timed, formidable title charge. The return of Barritt, their defensive leader, was very noticeable on Saturday, as him and his friends denied the Leicester backs any space in their 22-6 victory. Saracens lie in second, with 61 points. Up against them in the final three matches are: Northampton (A) televised, Exeter (H), London Welsh (A).
Bath
Bath have, on paper, the easiest run-in out of all the top four contenders as they face: London Irish (H) televised, Harlequins (A) televised, and Gloucester (H). With their home record being impeccable this season, it is likely that they will cruise to two bonus point wins at home, and should beat Harlequins at the Stoop. They showed their form in a comfortable away victory over Newcastle on Friday night, and will surely continue to lay siege for the rest of the season. Their backline hosts dangerous operators such as George Ford, Jonathan Joseph, and Matt Banahan, who will ensure that tries will be easily attainable.
Sitting in third, they are level with Saracens, on 61 points.
Exeter Chiefs
Although it’s been a wonderful season already for the Chiefs, this next month is where the added intensity and pressure will see them gradually drift down the table. As it is, they lie fourth, and surprised many at home to Northampton on Sunday. Alas, that was at home. After the small matter of a European Challenge Cup semi-final to attend to, the Chiefs travel to two of the current most impregnable grounds in England, the Ricoh Arena and Allianz Park. Write off Chiefs at a cost, the men from Devon will cry, and justifiably – they boast the league’s top try-scorer in Thomas Waldrom, as well as having the highest ‘Points For’ count this season.
Wasps (A) televised, Saracens (A) televised, and Sale (H) is the challenge which will greet them in the forthcoming few weeks. They are on 58 points in the league.
Leicester Tigers
In contrast to Exeter’s, Tigers’ 2014/15 has been far from ideal. A side used to being right in the mix for the hunt for the top two, they find themselves instead trying to hang on to the feathery headdress of the Chiefs above them in fourth, being chased (and haunted) by their old rival Wasps. The boot of Freddie Burns has had to keep Leicester within touching distance of the top four, as their ability to score tries has somewhat diminished. They do have worthy excuses: a plethora of injuries early in the season and no backs coach; however the Tigers are the most successful side in Premiership history and will refuse to be caught up in such excuses.
On their fixture list is London Welsh (H), Wasps (A) televised, and Northampton (H). The match against Wasps is likely to decide fourth spot itself so it’ll be an absolute belter. Leicester sit fifth on 55 points.
Wasps
A dark horse which has become clearer and clearer every week, Wasps are in a favourable position going into Round 20 and beyond. It is even more dramatic than their late play-off charges in the past. This season, they have the privilege of playing rivals Exeter and Leicester at home. Although their outside backs, players such as Elliot Daly and Christian Wade, have been in lightning form recently, they still struggle, comparatively, in the forwards. Evidence of this lies in the way that they were ground down in the rain and wind, by Saracens, in their only Ricoh Arena defeat – a straw for both the Chiefs and the Tigers to clutch at.
Topping off their fixtures against Exeter (H) and Leicester (H) [both televised], is London Irish (A), a potential last-gasp banana skin. Wasps are currently sixth on 53 points.
Below is a set of top four predictions, including my own, from some of our Aviva Premiership experts from Last Word On Sports:
Ben Johnson:
- Northampton
- Bath
- Saracens
- Wasps.
John Keogh:
- Northampton
- Saracens
- Bath
- Leicester.
Jack Pitt:
- Northampton
- Saracens
- Bath
- Exeter.
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