Finally, that cold and boring time of year known as winter is over and Baseball is back again. While Fantasy Draft season is over for full-season leagues, draft season is just getting starting for people who participate in Daily Leagues. Below is the line-up that I’m initially trotting out for tomorrow’s slate of games. The prices that are listed along with each player are based off of DraftKings. With that being said, here is the Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup for tonight.
When playing in Daily Leagues, it is crucial to remember to check the starting lineups when they are made public to make sure that the players you are started are actually in the line-up. The below line-up is subject to change based on any players that get an unexpected night off. It is also important to check weather reports to see if any games were postponed or if any other games are in danger of having the same fate.
Update: As of 12:00 PM PST, the Cardinals-Cubs game has been postponed. Also, if you plan on starting anyone on the Padres or Dodgers you will need to check the weather reports as there is about a 50% chance of rain at game time according to Rotowire.
Based on this updated data, I removed Zack Greinke and Starlin Castro from my line-up. They were replaced with Alex Wood & Dee Gordon. I have added the analysis of these choices in their respective position.
Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup 4-7-15
Starting Pitcher
Zack Greinke, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers $8,800 [Original – Removed Due to Possible Weather Issues]
While Greinke is overshadowed by teammate Clayton Kershaw, he is still a very solid starting option more often than not. Even with the Dodgers going up against a revamped Padres line-up, you get a top-40 overall player at a somewhat reasonable price. It also doesn’t hurt that Dodger Stadium tends to be friendly to pitchers.
Alex Wood, SP, Atlanta Braves, $8,600
With the fate of the Cardinals-Cubs game determined and the fate of the Padres-Dodgers in question, this removes four of top Starting Pitcher options off the table (Jake Arrieta, Zack Greinke, Lance Lynn and Tyson Ross).
Wood is the best option out of what were already slim pickings at this position. With Wood, you get a pitcher who should get you plenty of strikeouts (8.91 K/9 last year) and is capable of keeping runs off the board (2.78 ERA/3.25 FIP last year). While there are some non-advantages such as him facing an improved Marlins offense, an offense neutral stadium (Marlins Park had a 101 Park Factor last season) and the Braves unlikely to win many games this year, he still offers more than anyone else that is starting tonight.
James Paxton, SP, Seattle Mariners $6,600
Typically, I will attempt to have one mid-level pitcher based on matchups and spend at least $7,000 to do so. However, I’m not too crazy about any of the other pitchers in this range (C.J. Wilson, Matt Garza, etc.). Even though his overall numbers are projected to be modest this year (7 K/9 and an ERA in the high 3’s), I think he has a decent chance of picking up a win as he is going up against C.J. Wilson and has the benefit of this game being played at Safeco Field.
Catcher
Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants $4,600
On a normal night, Posey is typically a strong option at Catcher if you can fit him in the line-up. Tonight, he has a few more things than normal going for him. First, the Giants are playing at Chase Field which is friendly to hitters. Also, the Diamondbacks are one of the weakest teams in baseball and will be facing Rubby de la Rosa who has yet to prove he is capable of being much better than a replacement-level pitcher (4.34 career ERA).
First Base
Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants $4,700
While there are players at 1B with a lower salary (Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Adrian Gonzalez, etc.) that would typically get the nod, I’m starting Belt at 1B tonight due to many of the same reasons that I’m starting Posey (hitter friendly Park, weak opposition, mediocre opposing starting pitcher).
Second Base
Scooter Gennett, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers $4,100
While the Brewers offense put up a zero on Opening Day, it would be shocking if they get shut out again tonight. While Gennett is not a household name, some of his strengths can be worked to your advantage. It never hurts that this game is being played at Miller Park which is friendly to offense. Also, the Brewers are facing RHP Jordan Lyles tonight. In addition to Lyles having a career ERA of 5.09 in 503 2/3 IP (ouch!), Gennett is very strong against righties as he hit .307 against righties last year.
Third Base
Kyle Seager, 3B, Seattle Mariners, $3,600
While the Mariners are playing at Safeco tomorrow night and Seager didn’t hit lefties very well last season (.242 AVG), this is countered by some advantages that are too large to ignore. In looking at tomorrow’s prices, you are getting a top-70 overall player for the same price that you could get players of much lesser value (Casey McGehee, DJ LeMahieu, Marcus Semien, etc.). Also, Seager gets to go up against C.J. Wilson who doesn’t exactly look set to have the strongest season.
Shortstop
Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs, $3,800 [Original – Removed due to Postponement of Cubs-Cardinals game]
On Sunday, the Cubs started out the season getting shut out by the Cardinals. With the improved lineup that the Cubs are rolling out this season, I would be very shocked for their offense to be a non-factor on Tuesday night. Historically, Castro has hit well against Lynn as he is 10 for 30 with a .833 OPS against him in his career.
Dee Gordon, SS, Miami Marlins, $4,000
Since Alex Wood cost $200 less than Zack Greinke, I was able to upgrade at shortstop getting Dee Gordon for $4,000 (compared to $3,800 for Starlin Castro). Even though Gordon is likely to see a decrease in batting average this year, one positive thing to note for him is that he actually hit slightly better (.295) against lefties last year than righties (.287). Also, he is batting lead-off tonight and if he gets on base, he is also a stolen base threat.
Outfield
Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers, $5,400
On a typical day, Gomez is going to have a high value/price tag due to his elite combination of power and speed. Even though the Brewers got blanked by a mediocre Rockies pitcher yesterday (Kyle Kendrick), the Brewers offense is too strong to get blanked by a mediocre Rockies (tonight’s starter is Jordan Lyles) pitcher two days in a row.
Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore Orioles $4,400
Granted, Jones had a lower AVG (.261) against Righties as he had against lefties last year (.344). However, he clearly demonstrated the ability to hit for power against righties (20 HR) and he will be facing Rays starter Nathan Karns who had a 5.08 ERA last year in AAA.
Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins, $4,000
Even though the Marlins are facing the second-highest priced starting pitchers tomorrow (Alex Wood), Yelich does have an advantage at this moderate price point as he hit .317 against left-handed pitching last year.
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