Fantasy Profile: Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, New York Yankees

Welcome back to the 2015 Last Word on Fantasy Baseball Guide.  Over the next several months we will be releasing player profiles, projections, position rankings, and a number of other articles that will help you dominate your fantasy league this season.  Whether you play rotisserie or head-to-head; whether you have a standard draft, a snake or an auction league, and whether it’s keeper league or a one-year deal; we have all the fantasy information you need.

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FANTASY PROFILE: JACOBY ELLSBURY, OF, NEW YORK YANKEES

LWOS Ranking 9, Captains’ Value: $21.39

Speed.

It’s the first thing that comes to mind when discussing the fantasy prospects of Jacoby Ellsbury, who is typically a fine candidate for stolen bases. In his five full seasons he has stolen at least 39 bases every time. That’s an incredibly high floor.

Last year, his first season as a Yankee, Ellsbury delivered yet another fine performance in many of the typical categories he was expected to perform in, but even in some he was not. This of course can be attributed to hitting 3^rd in the order for a healthy stretch of the season, as well as the short porch in right field in Yankee Stadium.

In 2011 when Ellsbury smashed 32 homers, it was easily discarded as a sort of a Halley’s Comet of fantasy anomalies, never to be seen again in our lifetime. While the smart money is still on that performance remaining an outrageous anomaly, the slender outfielder belted 16 dingers in 2014, showing the outfielder does actually possess respectable power.

The knock on Ellsbury is that he is a very real injury risk. Another is that wear and tear could slow him down. An aging speed guy on the wrong side of 30 means the risk of a down season increases every season. Although these are valid concerns, I don’t feel this is the season to jump off the bandwagon. The slight decline in his batting average on ground balls for the third straight season is not a significant concern. His speed rating of 6.7 was still very good.

I will have no problem rolling the dice on Ellsbury if he falls to me and I can select him properly according to his value. But I likely won’t go chasing him, as a potential injury makes him a risky proposition to over invest.

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