Bold predictions about the upcoming baseball season are all the rage on the interwebs right now, so we at LWOS are dipping our toes in the bold predictions pool. I give you my 2015 MLB Bold Predictions. I have listed these in order, from most to least, of how much confidence I have in them, but there is a very real possibility that I pull an 0 for 5. In any event, these were a blast to compile, so enjoy reading them now and be ready to ridicule me when I look foolish in October. Oh, I almost forgot, when I mention WAR (Wins Above Replacement) I am using FanGraphs’ calculations.
1) The Oakland A’s will win the AL West
Billy Beane is smarter than you. Yes, Beane is smarter than I am too, but I saw the logic in his moves this offseason while you questioned him and said he had lost his mind. Beane has consistently put a contender on the field despite lacking the financial flexibility to dole out large contracts. There has been no better GM in baseball than Beane over the last 15 years or so, and I see no reason to begin to doubt him now. Within this one bold prediction, there are three less bold predictions that, if proven true, will pave the A’s path back to the top of the AL West. First, shortstop Brett Lawrie will finally stay healthy, now that he’s off that embarrassing turf in Toronto, and will post a solid 3.5 WAR this season. Second, third baseman Marcus Semien will post a 2.0-2.5 WAR and yet will still be overlooked as a solid player because few people understand the value of league average play at the most important position on the diamond. Third, Billy Butler will return to being ok at baseball, instead of the complete train wreck that he was in Kansas City last year, and post 1.5-2.0 WAR
2) Randall Delgado will finish in the top 20 MLB starters in WAR
Delgado produced a pedestrian 4.87 ERA in 77.2 innings pitched, but ERA is a dumb, antiquated stat and I don’t want to talk about it. In those same 77.2 innings, Delgado produced a much more impressive 3.39 FIP and 9.97 K/9. Yes, Delgado walked a lot of people, but these are my bold predictions and you can take your stats that do not further my point and hit the bricks. If Delgado actually earns a spot in the starting rotation, I foresee some very solid innings out of him in 2015. The ERA-FIP differential is something that can be used as a tool for predicting some degree of future success (this rule does not apply to Edwin Jackson). According to FIP, Delgado’s ERA was 1.48 runs higher than it should have been, so he is primed for a really nice run in 2015. Delgado may not “win” many games, but that is also a dumb stat. he will be in the top 20 in WAR. For reference, in 2014, Cole Hamels finished 20th in pitcher WAR at 3.8.
3) Justin Verlander is worse than league average and the Tigers finish 4th in the AL Central
Justin Verlander is done as even a borderline elite pitcher. Verlander’s velocity has clearly been declining since 2010 and that trend will not reverse itself in 2015, which will lead to more homers surrendered and fewer K’s. Verlander will finish the season with a total WAR lower than 2.0, which will place him squarely below league average. At some point, the rest of the AARP collection of players in Detroit will see some decline as well and I think that happens this year. Also, did anyone else see what the Tigers did with that brutal collection of pitchers they call a bullpen? They did nothing of substance to even try to address it, and I fully expect it to resemble the dumpster fire that it was in 2014. This is coming from a guy who hates the save stat and the “closer” role. By their nature, bullpens can fluctuate wildly in terms of effectiveness from year to year, but any amount of success is predicated upon having at least some pitchers that are sort of good or at least possess good stuff. Bruce Rondon should be their best reliever and used in the highest leverage situations, and if they use him that way then this part of my prediction could fall apart. In the end, the Tigers finish behind the Indians, White Sox, and Royals (not necessarily in that order) in the AL Central.
4) Jorge Soler will win the NL Rookie of the Year and finish in the top-5 of the NL MVP vote
Jorge Soler is an animal and an athletic freak of nature. When he debuted in 2014, Soler weighed about 215 pounds. This spring, he has reportedly tipped the scales in the 240 pound range and, judging by his Instagram photos, he didn’t pack on fat. Last season, I thought he was the safest Cubs prospect because of his mature approach at the plate, which leads to walks, and his ability to make more contact than the other prospects in the Cubs system. In the end, Kris Bryant has more upside and will probably be the better overall player, but I still think Soler has an MVP in him at some point in his career and I feel like we will see him fulfill his potential just a little bit sooner than Bryant. I am thinking along the lines of a .285/.350/.525 slash line with 30 homers for Soler, and the fact that the Cubs should actually be relevant this year will propel him into the MVP discussion.
5) Danny Salazar figures it out and leads the Indians starters in WAR
Thank god this is my first year doing a bold predictions piece because I would have put this in last year’s version as well. There is no denying Salazar’s raw stuff and he has the ability to lead baseball in strikeouts. I expect Salazar to cut down the walk rate just a bit, but more importantly he will be less unlucky this season. Last year Salazar was victimized by a ridiculous .343 BABIP, .043 points higher than league average. This does not mesh with the swing and miss stuff that he brings to the table. However, terrible luck didn’t get sent Salazar back to Triple-A in 2014; it was the fact that he couldn’t keep the ball in the yard early in games. Overall, Salazar posted 1.8 WAR in 110 innings pitched, which translates to 2.5 per 150 innings pitched, which is above average. This year, Salazar puts it all together and has a breakout season where he pitches around 180 innings, strikes out over 200 batters, and posts a 5 WAR season. This is bold because there is a legit chance Salazar doesn’t even break camp in Cleveland, which would derail this before the end of April.
Main Photo
