The English Premier League is well-noted for its relegation battle and race for top four positions especially at the business end of the season. This season has not been an exception with as many as six sides including Champions Manchester City and their city rivals Manchester United involved in the fight for the right to compete in Europe. The relegation battle hasn’t lost its fever either with the usual managerial changes that comes with it. In the top half of the league, none of the teams have had any managerial changes but as many as six teams in the bottom half have had new managers coming in the course of the season – Gus Poyet being the most recent casualty after losing his job at Sunderland following their 4-0 loss to Aston Villa.
The Premier League ‘Rat Race’: Race For Top Four Finish
We’ll turn our attentions to the top of the table, where Chelsea look set to claim their fifth league title and the tightly contested top four ‘rat race’. With nine games to go, we look at the form of the teams involved in the race, their remaining fixtures and their chances of securing a top 4 spot.
MANCHESTER CITY
Current Position: 2nd, 58pts
Form (2015): WDLDDWWLWL
Key Matches Left: Man Utd (A), Tottenham (A), Southampton (H)
The Champions have not had the best of starts in 2015 despite ending the previous year strongly. The citizens ended 2014 in good form where they lost once in their last eleven games in the year. Pellegrini’s men have won only four of their ten games since the turn of the New Year which shows a 40% winning percentage. The Citizens struggles have not been in the league alone but they have also suffered morale-deflating losses to Middlesbrough and Barcelona in the FA Cup and Champions League respectively. Sergio Aguero has looked a shadow of the man we saw at the start of the season and Yaya Toure seems to have lost his legs. Both men were the driving force of Manchester City’s victorious league campaign last season but with Aguero’s recurring injuries coupled with the dip in form of Toure and Vincent Kompany, City have failed to impress at times this season. But the City faithful can be confident of finishing in the top four with no European or Cup distractions. The champions have an easier run-in as compared to their rivals and will look to cement their position in the top four.
Predicted Position (after 38 games): 2ND
- Man City have enough quality as compared to their rivals to help them cross the line and that is what they’ll do.
ARSENAL
Current Position: 3rd, 57pts
Form (2015): LWWWLWWWWW
Key Matches Left: Liverpool (H), Chelsea (H), Man Utd (A)
Arsenal only managed 17pts from their first 12 games – their worst start since 1982. However, the Gunners have amassed a staggering 40pts from 17 games since then. Arsene Wenger has struggled with fitness with the North London club having to deal with long term injuries to Mesut Ozil, Aaron Ramsey, Mathieu Debuchy, Olivier Giroud, Jack Wilshere and Mikel Arteta. Much has been their plight with injuries that, Arsenal started a game with three full-backs in their defense. But with most of the players returning to fitness, the Gunners have looked impressive with Olivier Giroud enjoying his best season in an Arsenal shirt. The French striker has 11 goals in 18 appearances in the league and provided 3 assists for his teammates. Arsenal, winners of the FA Cup last year, are in the semi-final of this year’s edition after beating Manchester United at Old Trafford with Danny Welbeck grabbing the winner against his former employers. The Gunners have only lost twice in 2015, and have won 80 percent of their league fixtures since New Year’s Day. With Arsenal out of this year’s Champions League following to their loss to AS Monaco on away goals, they have just the FA Cup and Premier League to concentrate on and with a near-fit squad, they will look to make a strong push to the finish line. Their third from last fixture, against Man United at Old Trafford, will be crucial in both team’s aspiration of finishing in the top four.
Predicted Position (after 38 games): 3RD
- The fight for the 3rd spot will be a tight contest between Manchester United and Arsenal but Arsenal have been in this situation a lot of times and know how to go about it. Manchester United have not performed well on a consistent level and the demands of their fans might add that extra pressure.
MANCHESTER UNITED
Current Position: 4th, 56pts
Form (2015): DLWWDWLWWW
Key Matches Left: Liverpool (A), Man City (H), Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H)
Manchester United were brilliant in their 3-0 victory of an in-form Tottenham side. Prior to the match, the Red Devils seemed like the underdogs despite playing at home and the Reds provided an astute answer to their critics. Spurs had one shot on target which was taken by Harry Kane and could not fashion any other chance. Such a performance came after a defeat to Arsenal where Manchester United were outclassed by the Gunners. Such has been Man United’s inconsistency this season that they have managed to win convincingly against some tough opposition and struggled against teams in the lower half. Fans could however delight in the resilience and hunger in this United side who have managed to pick up points even when they have not played well thanks largely to David De Gea’s brilliance this season. With Louis van Gaal claiming not to have an idea of the best system for his squad, Sunday’s performance against Tottenham suggests that the Dutch tactician may have just found it. The Old Trafford outfit has the toughest run-in with away games at Chelsea and Liverpool while they host Man City and Arsenal. Manchester United picked up 7pts from a possible 12 in the first four matches against this opposition and a similar tally will be welcomed by United fans. If Man Utd can perform as they did against Spurs in their remaining fixtures, you can’t rule out a finish in the top four.
Predicted Finish (after 38 games): 4TH
- Man United have never been in this situation in the Premier League era and the expectations of their fans and the pressure may be too much for the team. However, they are professionals under an experienced manager in Louis van Gaal but they haven’t been consistent with their performance. The Red Devils were expected to peak in this period but their key players have not found their feet so far. Angel Di Maria, this time last year, was unplayable for Real Madrid but is struggling and has not lasted the full 90 minutes in his last two Premier League games. But if the saying, ‘Form is temporary and class is permanent’ is anything to go by, then the Man United faithful could be expectant as there is a lot of class in LVG’s squad roster.
LIVERPOOL
Current Position: 5th, 54pts
Form (2015): DWWWDWWWWW
Key Matches Left: Man Utd (H), Arsenal (A), Chelsea (A)
Liverpool, much like Arsenal, struggled in the early part of the season but have been the most in-form team at the turn of the New Year. Brendan Rodgers experimented with his squad at the start of the season due to injuries and in search of the right balance. Rodgers began with the 4-4-2 system he ended which worked so efficiently for the Reds last season but the injury to Daniel Sturridge coupled with the misfiring Mario Balotelli meant that Rodgers had to try something else. Raheem Sterling played in the striking role where he impressed. With the return to fitness of Daniel Sturridge and new signings like Lazar Markovic and Adam Lallana getting used to the Reds’ style of play, Liverpool have a had a change in fortune. The Merseyside club are on a 13-game unbeaten run with their last defeat in December – a 3-0 defeat at the hands of Manchester United. Liverpool have picked up the most points in 2015 and are the only team yet to lose in the league this year. They have won eight of their ten games, drawing in the other two – a goalless draw in the Merseyside derby and a 2-2 draw on New Year’s Day against Leicester City. Liverpool’s Achilles heel at the start of the season was in their defense, with Dejan Lovren coming in for much criticism but the Reds have kept seven clean sheets in their last ten games with Simon Mignolet particularly impressing after his early season slump in form which led to Brad Jones taking his place in the starting lineup.
Predicted Finish (after 38 games): 5TH
- The Reds are set to finish in the top four with their current form but they quality their rivals possess might be too much for the Anfield outfit. Sterling looks tired and hasn’t impressed in recent weeks. In spite of their good run of form, Liverpool haven’t met stern opposition so far. Their win against Man City came when the Manchester club were struggling and their loss to Besiktas and Chelsea in the Europa League and Capital One Cup semi-final suggests the Reds are beatable. Liverpool also struggled against a Championship side in their FA Cup quarter-final clash against Blackburn despite playing at home. Liverpool could make a stronger push next season but they don’t have enough depth in quality for this term.
SOUTHAMPTON
Current Position: 6th, 50pts
Form (2015): WWWLWDLLWD
Key Matches Left: Tottenham (H), Man City (A)
No matter what happens in the closing stages of the season, the Saints management, staff, players and fans can be proud of Ronald Koeman and his team. Relegation candidates at the start of the season following the departures of several of their key players, Southampton have performed admirably and have over-achieved. After a strong start to the campaign, many expected the Saints to drop but they have been able to stay in the top six and they do not look like dropping. Though they struggled in the month of February, they have picked themselves up with an impressive victory over a rejuvenated Crystal Palace and a draw against the league-leaders Chelsea. The Saints have the most favourable fixtures to end the season and will look to capitalise on that advantage.
Predicted Finish (after 38 games): 7TH
The Saints are square on points with Spurs but only sit above the North London club due to their better goal difference. Due to the lack of squad depth, most of the players involved in their early season form have tired and are struggling for fitness. Graziano Pelle graced the league with his scoring touch but has struggled since the turn of the year. With most of their matches against teams battling relegation, the Saints may not be able to much up the intensity and passion of those teams and may just lose out to Spurs and finish 7th.
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
Current Position: 7th, 50pts
Form (2015): WLWWWLDWWL
Key Matches Left: Southampton (A), Man City (A)
Spurs have been efficient as always and are set to end just outside the top four as usual. Mauricio Pochettino has done a great job bringing stability to the side and they will look to build on from that this season. Spurs have a relatively young squad compared to their top four rivals with Harry Kane, Ryan Mason and Nabil Bentaleb set to form the core of the side. Their brilliance has led to the likes of Roberto Soldado, Emmanuel Adebayor, Paulinho and Moussa Dembele being relegated to the bench. Spurs have played the high intensity attacking football they are known for this season and the fans can have real hope for a better campaign next season. Meanwhile, Spurs will be involved in the Europa League again next year following their defeat in the Capital One Cup Final to Chelsea, who are unlikely to miss out on the top four.
Predicted Finish (after 38 games): 6TH
- Unlike Southampton, Spurs are almost always in this situation and have the mental strength to deal with the late season push for a top four. However, they can’t match up the quality of Arsenal, Manchester United or Liverpool and are likely to finish behind the trio. Spurs have a lot of winnable games, having played majority of their top four rivals already, but may just miss out due to the quality and depth of these same rivals. Either way, Pochettino and his men can hold their heads up high and look forward to the challenge next season.
Do Man City have enough to keep themselves in second place? Or can an in-form Arsenal and Man Utd overtake them? Does Brendan Rodgers have something new under his sleeve? Let us know who you think will end up in the Top Four of this year’s English Premier League. Comment below on which teams will make the top four and who won’t.
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