Many reports have surfaced about potential trades for top-tier or at least second-tier quarterbacks in recent weeks. Reports have come out about the Bears shopping Jay Cutler, the Saints looking to trade Drew Brees to the Bucs, or the Chargers trading Philip Rivers. Any deal for Rivers or Brees would likely bring that team either Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota or Florida State’s Jameis Winston.
These deals may look good, as they are an attempt to fulfill the basics of marketing: buy low and sell high. As any marketing expert will say, there are risks involved in any marketing transaction, and in moving football players in the NFL, their is not a more risky position than quarterback.
The Many Faces of the NFL Quarterback Carousel
A good marketing tool is to look at past trends to try to predict future trends. Lets see what can be learned about the quarterback position in the NFL using this tactic.
Cincinnati Bengals – After the 1992 season, Boomer Esiason’s last as quarterback, the Bengals had 12 DIFFERENT starters at the position from 1993 to 2004. The Bengals record during that time was 59-129 with no playoff appearances. In comes Carson Palmer who was succeeded by Andy Dalton and both provided some stability at the position. The Bengals have had six playoff appearances since.
Dallas Cowboys – Between Troy Aikman and Tony Romo their were eight signal callers. This was in a five-year span from 2001-2005, in which the Cowboys had a 35-43 record with a single playoff appearance. Since Romo came on the scene, the Cowboys have been to the post-season five times.
Baltimore Ravens – From 1996-2007, the Ravens had 16 starting quarterbacks. They went 96-95-1 in that 11-year span. They did win a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer during that time (exception to the rule). They also had four playoff appearances during a span of 12 years. Since the Joe Flacco era began in Baltimore, the Ravens have gone 72-40 and appeared in the playoffs in six of seven seasons. They also won another Super Bowl.
When building a house, the foundation is the most important part. You can have the best wood a tree can produce, build a solid frame, and have the nicest kitchen and dining room area. But if your house is built on something like sand, the house is falling down.
Like the foundation of a house, the quarterback is the most important part of an NFL football team. A general manager should start with the quarterback and build on the foundation of his talent.
Really? The most important part? What about the coach? Bill Belichick seems pretty important to the Patriots.
True, but did you know many people believe Bill Belichick thought he was going to be fired after two terrible seasons in 1999 and 2000 before finding Tom Brady? Or that he was fired while coaching the Browns after going 36-44 in five seasons? He started Tom Brady, and the rest is history.
What about Pete Carroll? Most fans believe he is a great coach. Carroll went 7-9 in each of his first two seasons before drafting Russell Wilson. Carroll was also the head coach of the Jets and Patriots with no success before deciding he was a better college coach.
If you made a list of all the teams going through quarterback transfigurations or teams that haven’t found “THE GUY” at the position, you could probably parallel the list with another list of teams who usually don’t make the playoffs.
Trent Dilfer says the most important attribute of a quarterback in the NFL is being able to throw in a “muddy pocket” (the opposite of a clean pocket).
Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston went to schools with the most talented players and had the most talented coaches. They also had the most talented offensive linemen. In college, teams play about three to four halfway decent conference teams a year. The out of conference schedule has teams like North Wichita Art Gallery State and We Got Our Football Program Last Week University.
The point is, the top college football teams are not tested enough to know if their quarterbacks can throw in muddy pockets.
No disrespect to Mariota or Winston, but the balding, hurt back, injured neck, walking cane Peyton Manning has a better chance of winning another Super Bowl in the final couple years of his career then either of these two have at winning one. This is because the position is played between the ears, and greatness is not always represented by who is more talented.
If you are the general manager of the Chargers, Bears, or Saints, you don’t rebuild while you have Brees, Rivers, and Cutler. You certainly don’t trade them. What you do is give these special players everything you can in order to win the big game at the end of the playoffs. You sell out for the Super Bowl for the next three to five or even 10 years. These special players cannot play forever, but they are very hard to come by.
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