As the KHL playoffs approach their mid-point, LWOS KHL writers Cirno Avery and Aivis Kalnins present you with their Gagarin Cup predictions. Each writer will pick one team they think has the best chance of winning this year and give their explanation why. You can check out Aivis’ prediction in part one here.
Cirno’s Prediction – Ak Bars Kazan
In a league where the top three teams are offensive powerhouses with shooting percentages high enough to make Alexander Ovechkin smile, there is one team that sticks out. That is Ak Bars Karzan, a team with a slightly different outlook than just pure offense.
Headed by the unique coaching style of Zinetula Bilyaletdinov, Ak Bars plays a defensive, shot suppressing system which helped them to finish first in the East, despite being an outlier compared to the other teams that topped the league. They sit second in the league for the least amount of goals allowed, surrounded by CSKA, a team that does nothing but shoot and cycle, and followed by four of the top 10 teams for shooting. AK Bars sit 16th in that regard, below several first-round casualty teams and below even some non-playoff teams. They are barely in the middle of the pack, yet still managed to total the third-most shots on goal in the league. This divide seems weird; a team doesn’t shoot, yet shoots so much? Then what is going on?
Possession.
And that what sets Ak Bars apart from many of their peers. They hold possession. Not just in the offense zone like SKA St. Petersburg or Dynamo Moscow. Ak Bars just have the puck in their own zone: the neutral zone. Finishing third in the league for least shots against, they are a shutdown team rather literally, not having to rely on a Steve Moses or a Alexander Radulov to storm onward with shots and goals in order to compensate for a weaker defensive core. Comparisons to other teams like SKA St. Petersburg, who have far more goals for but also more goals against, shows that this team isn’t offensively gifted but plays a system allowing them to fight with these competitors and bridge the gap. Their defensive style focused on possession and strong counterattacks led to six shorthanded goals, second in the league.
We can demonstrate the uniqueness that is Ak Bars with the stats that stick out. While it might not be the best statistic to use, Justin Azevedo sits second in the plus-minus leaders of the league, surrounded by a sea of CSKA Moscow and SKA players. In fact, further down, Ak Bars players continue to make their mark in this statistical category, despite nearly constantly having less points than their companions, especially among forwards. It helps that Ak Bars are very good compared to their peers in the face-off circle; when the puck drops, it’s theirs.
Examining further, we can look at how they’ve performed in the playoffs so far. Remaining the most disciplined of teams and staying out of the box, they completed a 4-1 series win over Avengard. Not quite a sweep, but an impressive series with tight, one goal games.After coming back from a shutout to win, and with recent 4-0 and 2-0 victories, Ak Bars seem to have their game back. They remain one of the better defensive clubs and hold the highest penalty differential of teams still active in the post-season.
A big key to victory however will be to utilize those special teams more. Always sitting round the middle of the pack in both power play and penalty killing efficiency, it’s time to utilize that penalty differential and get some key goals and help themselves gain momentum in close games. As CSK showed Jokerit, a single powerplay goal can switch a game, or as Sibir has shown through both series, a later powerplay goal can go for the jugular of a wounded team. If Ak Bars can capitalize on the special teams just a little more, they have nothing to fear.
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