Welcome back to the Most Important Players in the MLB series, Volume V. We’ve finally made it out west as this time we’ll analyze the most important players for each of the American League West teams. For those who need a bit of a refresher, the last division looked at in this series was the NL Central, a division loaded with star-power.
The Most Important Players in 2015: AL West
The American League West has a chance at being the strongest division in baseball in 2015. The Houston Astros, a team which has been routinely mocked for the last 3-4 years, has some life heading into 2015 with a youthful and revamped roster. Meanwhile the Texas Rangers look to bounce back from a miserable 2014, although the fate of Yu Darvish’s arm will likely determine that. At the top of the division last season, the Angels and A’s will try to fend off the Mariners who look to finally be ready to contend for not just the AL West crown, but a deep playoff run.
As defined in the previous articles, a team’s MIP is not the same as the team’s MVP. In some cases a team’s MIP will also be their MVP, but in most cases they will not. These are those players for the AL West’s teams.
Side Note: Teams are listed in order from bottom to top of where they finished in the division last season.
Texas Rangers: SP, Yovani Gallardo
This offseason the Rangers brought in Gallardo for just this situation: a Yu Darvish injury. With Darvish’s season hanging the balance, the Rangers chances of competing in the AL West have shrunk dramatically. Gallardo however has the power to change that, but it’s going to take one of his best seasons to do it. Assuming Darvish misses all of or most of 2015, the Rangers’ rotation will need to step up in a major way and that all starts with the recently-acquired Gallardo.
Gallardo’s 2014 with Milwaukee was a huge step up from his disappointing 2013 campaign. His 3.51 ERA was actually a full-season career low while he also decreased his BB%. Aside from that however, Gallardo’s recent play the past two seasons has not been very inspiring. Despite the career low ERA, Gallardo’s 3.94 FIP was one of the worst of his careers while he also posted his lowest K/9 at 6.8. A change of scenery may help improve Gallardo’s game, but a move to Arlington hasn’t been favorable to pitchers historically. For the Rangers to have a fighting chance in 2015, they’ll have to hope Gallardo is up to the challenge.
Houston Astros: SP, Dallas Keuchel
Keuchel was absolutely phenomenal for the Astros last season. After posting a 5.15 ERA in 2013, Keuchel responded with a 2.93 ERA in 2014. While that kind of improvement is unprecedented, there seems to be some real context behind it. Keuchel’s 3.21 FIP, 1.175 WHIP, and 133 ERA+ last season were all career-highs by a wide margin. Additionally, Keuchel cut down on his BB/9 (2.2) and HR/9 (0.5), suggesting he improved his command last season as well. While he may not possess the elite stuff or strikeout pitch you’d ideally like your ace to have, Keuchel none the less looks like a bonafide top of the rotation starter for the ‘Stros.
The Astros should have no problem putting up runs in 2015 as they have a strong chance at leading the league in home runs next season given their lineup. The acquisitions of Colby Rasmus and Evan Gattis as well as a full season from George Springer in addition to Chris Carter means this lineup is going to crush the ball a lot and strikeout a lot. Adding Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek helps fortify the bullpen as well meaning the team’s starting rotation will be the most crucial area in 2015. If Keuchel can come close to repeating his 2014 numbers, the Astros will have a great chance at posting their first 80+ win season since 2008.
Seattle Mariners: OF/DH, Nelson Cruz
The Mariners were an elite pitching and defensive team in 2014. They lead the American League in both ERA (3.17) and fielding % (.986), and ranked top 5 in a number of other important pitching and fielding categories (FIP, ERA+, H/9, Rtot, etc). But in spite of both those impressive numbers, the team missed the playoffs with the Angels and A’s creating a logjam atop the division. Much of this was due to the fact that the team just could not produce enough runs to help out as they ranked 3rd to last in the AL in runs at a mere 3.91 per game. Nelson Cruz should help change all that.
Everyone is aware of Cruz’s humongous season last year coming off his PED suspension. While Safeco Field is likely to suppress some of his power, Cruz should still be a dominant and imposing force in the heart of the Mariners lineup, likely batting between Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager. He’ll also be a huge upgrade at the DH position as Mariners’ designated hitters last season posted an OPS of .567, while Cruz posted a .858 OPS. A repeat of 2014 is highly unlikely for Cruz, but nice splits and 30 home runs are not at all out of the realm of possibility for the slugger.
Oakland A’s: RF, Josh Reddick
The A’s appear devoid of offense heading into 2015 after a busy offseason for Billy Beane. Without Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, and of course Yoenis Cespedes, this team lacks a true power hitter. That’s where Reddick comes in as he is this team’s best hope at a 20+ home run hitter. Ike Davis, Brett Lawrie, Billy Butler, and Ben Zobrist all provide some hope at producing power, but Reddick seems to be the most likely candidate to be the team’s primary power source. And that’s going to be a tough gamble for the A’s.
Reddick’s 2014 was a step up from his 2013, but nowhere near his 2012 breakout campaign. What exactly does this tell A’s fans? He’s a tough player to pin down. His 115 OPS+ last season was a career, but he was nowhere near the 32 home runs he cranked out in 2012. At this point, that 2012 season appears to be an outlier, but Reddick’s advanced metrics suggest he’s a better player than he has been each of the last 2 seasons. In addition to his career high OPS+, Reddick posted a respectable .182 ISO as well as an increased line drive % (up to 26%). For the A’s to stay near the top of the AL West, they’ll need Reddick to put up better numbers in 2015.
Los Angeles Angels: CF, Mike Trout
Surprise, surprise it’s Mike Trout. I thought long and hard about the Angels’ MIP but honestly there just wasn’t a good enough case to be made for anyone else. Trout had probably the worst season of his MLB career last year and still won the MVP with ease. If Trout were to go down, the Angels would almost certainly slide towards the bottom of the AL West in 2015. His power was more evident than ever in 2014 with 36 home runs, 39 doubles, and of course a league leading 111 RBIs. Pair that with his superb range and incredible glove in the field and you have the Angels and perhaps all of baseballs’ MIP.
But there were absolutely causes for concern in 2014. Trout lead the AL in strikeouts with 184 while also seeing a fairly significant dip in his BB% (15.4 to 11.8). Additionally, Trout had only 18 stolen base attempts in 2014, which regardless of his skill set is not what fans want to see from him. Perhaps worst of all, he was substantially worse in the 2nd half of last season. Take a look at these splits:
Trout 1st half: .310/.400/.606/1.006, 95:53 K:BB ratio
Trout 2nd half: .257/.347/.502/.849, 89:30 K:BB ratio
If these trends continue, Trout could find himself in prolonged slumps, much like he found himself in during the first few weeks of August last season. While he’s still the unquestioned best all-around player in baseball, the Angels and their fans will want to carefully monitor Trout early on this season. If his 2015 is anything like his 2nd half of 2014, the team could be in for a disappointing year.
That will do it for our AL West edition of the Most Important Players in the MLB! Come back next time for the conclusion of our series where we will wrap things up with the NL West.
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