This season has been Phil Kessel’s Questionable Fantasy Season. For fantasy owners out there, it has been a bitter pill to swallow, especially those in salary cap leagues. His salary is eighth highest for forwards in the league and to watch him put up goose eggs night after night is disheartening. I know in many keeper fantasy leagues, owners are bailing on Kessel left, right and center. These are the types of owners I love playing fantasy hockey with. The impatient, “what have you done for me lately” GM’s who are short sighted. My friends, if you are a Kessel owner, do not be one of those short sighted owners, looking to trade him at the worst possible time.
Kessel is an annual 30 + goal scorer, and even with him having what appears to be a desperate time scoring this year, he’s still managed to put up 23 goals to this point. Thirty goals is not that far out of reach for him. Surprisingly, he isn’t even having a career worst year for his shooting percentage. That came in 2010-11 when he shot just under 10%. Even that year he managed to score 32 goals in 82 games. Don’t get me wrong, he’s close to his career low right now, shooting a hair over 10% but he’s not really that far under his career average of 11.1%. He currently has 8 power play goals, which equals his total from last year and his career high is 12. He’s sitting with 14 power play assists; one lower than his career best of 15 from two years ago.
Another thing to look at when it comes to players and their fantasy numbers is the advanced stats that are out there right now. To me, one of the more telling advanced stats is the SPSv% – (formerly known as PDO) – This is 5-on-5 shooting percentage added to the 5-on-5 save percentage. It’s been referred to by many as “puck luck” mainly because both numbers are driven, to some extent, by luck. If you have a high shooting percentage and your goalie has a high save percentage you will have a high SPSv% and more than likely, due for a regression. On the other side, if you have a SPSv% less than 1000, you are due for a rebound. The guys closest to 1000 are the guys who seem to be doing things right and so are their goalies. Kessel is not having a very good year for “puck luck” as his SPSv% is sitting this year at 987. He’s due for a rebound and so are his fantasy numbers.
The long and short of it, even though it appears he’s having a terrible year, he’s really not that far off most of his career numbers. I think a lot of the negativity around the Toronto Maple Leafs is wearing on Kessel because he’s their main asset. This is not a time to be selling Phil Kessel.
For fantasy owners who do not own Kessel, if there was ever a time for you to reach out to the Kessel owners, it would be now. This is prime buying time on Phil Kessel.
There’s a very good chance that Kessel will get dealt out of Toronto this summer, probably at the draft. Teams are more willing to acquire big contracts around that time as they usually know what the cap will be and also know what their needs are heading into the upcoming season. Whatever team acquires Kessel is looking for a big return on their investment, and don’t think he won’t be looking to give it to them. Kessel has to be feeling the weight of a terrible Toronto team and it has to be affecting his game somewhat. Once this trade happens, the chances of acquiring Kessel on the cheap will pretty much disappear.
Fantasy owners need to be proactive, not reactive when it comes to roster management. Knowing the market and your other GMs is key to taking advantage of opportunities. Player values rise and decline, much like a stock market. A proven commodity like Phil Kessel is one player you want to buy low on when the opportunity arises and that time is now.
On the other side of the coin, if you are a Kessel owner, there could never be a worse time to sell him. I realize it’s tough right now, but better days are ahead. A little patience will go a long way for you and your fantasy team if you hold tight on Kessel and wait for the stocks to bounce back.
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