Welcome to our first annual LWOS MLB Top-100 Prospect List. I have compiled this list through a number of different avenues. First, I’ve seen a great number of these ballplayers in live game action throughout the last few seasons. In no way can you make a clear scouting call on a player by seeing him play one or even two games, but you can get a good feel for a player’s bat speed, especially around the batting cage, as well as the raw stuff a pitcher possesses. I have also watched extensive video on every prospect I could, in some cases video wasn’t readily available. On prospects that I haven’t seen personally or on video, I have read every scouting report I could get my hands on from sources I respect. I have also talked to as many people as I could to get a good grasp on the players and their future projections.
For fantasy purposes I will include a fantasy note on a players that I feel have a shot to stick on an MLB roster in the next year or two. In the end, I am going to try and keep my scouting reports, especially on the guys lower on this list, concise but thorough.
When ranking prospects, if there is a pitcher and a hitter that could possibly be ranked in the same spot, I will always put the hitter higher on the list. There are a couple reasons for this but the biggest reasons are risk of injury and the higher bust rate seen in pitchers, especially young pitchers, before or when they reach the Big Leagues.
After completing the list there is only one team without a top-100 prospect and that is the Detroit Tigers. There are four teams that place six players in the top-100, they are the Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Minnesota Twins and the New York Mets. Overall, the Cubs have the deepest system when looking at the top-200 prospects or so, the organization has the most impact talent combined with the players’ proximity to the Majors, but that is a discussion for another article. So without further ado, here are prospects 100 through 91.
LWOS Top 100 MLB Prospects for 2015: 100-91
100) Peter O’Brien – C – Arizona Diamondbacks – ETA 2016
O’Brien isn’t a player you’re going to find on most top prospect lists around but I love the bat. There are some questions as to whether or not he can stick behind the plate, but I have heard mixed opinions on this lately, whereas before it was almost a consensus that he would have to move out from behind the plate. What I saw at the Arizona Fall League was that O’Brien was plenty athletic enough with a strong enough arm to stick behind the plate, but he will have to improve defensively to be a true everyday backstop. If O’Brien can stick behind the dish it will make the issues he’s had with contact and walk rates much easier to stomach. O’Brien is currently working with above average raw, or batting practice power, that should develop into slightly above average game power by the time he hits his prime. The two homers I saw O’Brien launch into the Arizona night were majestic and proved to me that the power was real, it’s just a matter of whether or not he will be able to make enough contact as he continues to progress. O’Brien will probably start the season at Triple-A Reno, where he should continue to hit for plenty power in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League, but with a solid spring could see time in the Majors early in 2015. We’ll have to continue to monitor his contact rates, because the Diamondbacks are thin at catcher and O’Brien is by far their best offensive option at the position.
Fantasy Outlook: If Diamondbacks GM, Dave Stewart, is to be believed, then O’Brien is going to have a real shot at significant playing time this season. And with very few upper echelon offensive options at catcher, O’Brien will be someone to keep an eye on as the spring progresses and Opening Day rolls around.
99) Renato Nunez – 3B – Oakland A’s – ETA 2017
Nunez was signed by the A’s in 2010 out of Venezuela. Currently a third baseman, many are projecting Nunez as more of a first baseman or DH once he reaches the Big Leagues due to some questions about his glove sticking at third. Much like O’Brien, the reason Nunez is debuting on this list is due to his bat, and mainly his power. Nunez is an extremely aggressive hitter which has resulted in some higher strikeout numbers, but he did make a significant stride in 2014 in that regard. In 2013, Nunez struck out in 25% of his plate appearances in Single-A but cut that number down to 20.1% in 2014 while playing at High-A Stockton. Nunez also launched 29 homers and represented the World Team at the 2014 MLB Futures Game. To go along with his troubling K%, Nunez’s approach is also not conducive to walking and that has shown in his career BB% of 5.6% in exactly 1,500 minor league plate appearances. 2015 is going to be a huge year for Nunez’s progression as he makes the jump to Double-A, and we will have to see if he makes any progress as he makes the hardest jump in any player’s development. For now, the bat and the incredible raw power that is seemingly translating into real game power puts Nunez on this list as we enter the 2015 season.
98) Chance Sisco – C – Balimore Orioles – ETA 2017
Sisco was a second round pick of the Orioles in 2013 and is only entering his age 20 season. Sisco’s bat is developing into his biggest strength. Some scouts feel this could end up being a truly upper echelon tool in his prime, but with catchers the bat tends to come around later, but there is little question Sisco should hit once he makes it to the Show. During his first year of pro ball in 2013, Sisco also showed some great patience and walked in almost 15% of his plate appearances, but that number dropped to a respectable 8.8% during his first full season assignment last year. He’s athletic enough to stick behind the plate and if the bat continues to develop Sicso should develop into an above average Big Leaguer with the ceiling for something higher if the bat reaches it’s full potential.
97) Christian Bethancourt – C – Atlanta Braves – ETA 2015
Bethancourt made what could hardly be considered his real MLB debut in 2013 when he accrued just a single plate appearance. In 2014, Bethancourt did find himself in 31 games for Atlanta and stayed true to previous scouting reports that had him pegged as a plus defender with a rocket for an arm but not much of a hitter. Bethancourt threw out 5 of 15 runners after his promotion and his defense will only improve as he matures and learns to handle a pitching staff. However the offense is another story. In his 117 Big League plate appearances last season, Bethancourt posted a woeful 54 wRC+ so there isn’t much for him to do but improve. Bethancourt will enter 2015 as the full-time backstop for Braves and his bat should steadily improve but he will never be confused with a Pudge Rodriguez offensively, but he will provide real value to the Braves especially as pitch framing becomes more and more of a commodity.
Fantasy Outlook: You can read what our fantasy experts think of Bethancourt here. Personally, I see no need to roster him unless you are playing in the deepest of mixed leagues or NL-Only leagues. I don’t think the bat is anything special and Bethancourt will always be more useful in real baseball than in fantasy baseball.
96) Andrew Susac – C – San Francisco Giants – ETA 2015
Susac, like Bethancourt, was dangerously close to losing his rookie/prospect status going into 2015. In his 95 plate appearances Susac was more than the Giants could have possibly hoped for out of 24 year old catcher from Roseville, California. Susac is not an elite defender but he is definitely good enough to be considered an average defensive performer. The value in Susac comes from his offensive game and it was on full display in his debut season as he slashed .273/.326/.466 and posted an impressive 0.8 fWAR and a wRC+ of 128. I love the offensive upside Susac possesses and if he can get consistent playing time he could post some impressive power numbers for a catcher. The potential for Susac to hit 20-25 homers during his prime will be directly tied to what the Giants do with the best catcher in baseball, Buster Posey. If Posey moves from behind the plate to extend his prime offensive years, then Susac could solidify himself as a solid and impactful Big Leaguer.
Fantasy Outlook: As I mentioned above, Susac’s real-life and fantasy production are going to be directly tied to playing time. If he can get consistent at-bats then he is definitely worth a roster spot, but that is a huge question mark heading into the season. 2015 may not be the year we see Susac breakout simply due to Posey blocking him, but eventually the Giants will move Posey, who played shortstop all the way through college, to a place in the infield and Susac will be ready to shine. Until that day, the Giants will have an excellent backup with some above average power.
95) Miguel Almonte – RHP – Kansas City Royals – ETA 2016
Almonte has nasty stuff and this is exactly why I put him as high as I did on this list. I knew of Almonte’s ability to flash three plus pitches, a 93-97 MPH fastball, a really nasty changeup, and a solid hammer for a curveball. I saw Almonte twice in Arizona this fall and he proved the scouting reports of erratic performances correct. In the first outing, Almonte was all over the place and took a pretty good pounding because he was forced to throw a ton of pitches over the plate. In the second appearance I saw, Almonte was lights out, combining the heat and the fall off the table changeup and some decent command. My biggest concern with Almonte as a starting pitcher once he hits the Big Leagues is his windup. It is a bit herky-jerky and I feel like this could be one of the reasons Almonte can struggle with his release point and his command. If Almonte can ever gain consistency I love his potential to be a good #2 starter or a really good #3, but if he doesn’t ever figure it out he could be an electric arm out of the pen.
94) Raimel Tapia – OF – Colorado Rockies – ETA 2017
Tapia is one of the prospects that I haven’t been able to see in person or on TV, so I relied on video scouting and the opinions of some people I really respect in the scouting business. Immediately the first thing you’ll notice about Tapia is his size, he’s 21 right now and is built a little bit like Dee Gordon, in that he is as skinny as any pro baseball player out there. Tapia stands 6-2 and allegedly weighs 160 lbs, but I am guessing he was wearing a full uniform and had just eaten a large meal when he stepped on the scale. Just looking through Tapia’s stats, the kid can flat out hit for average, but he is not expected to hit for much power. Tapia possesses above average speed, but will have to continue to learn the art of stealing bases as he stole 33 last year but was thrown out 16 times. I am intrigued by the bat more than anything, and according to most scouts, Tapia will be a solid Major League contributor with a couple more seasons of refinement in the minors.
93) Michael Lorenzen – RHP – Cincinnati Reds – ETA 2016
Lorenzen is arguably the second best pitcher in the Reds system, but I put him lower on this list than most lists will have him only because I am not sure if he will stick as a starter once he makes it to the Show. Lorenzen possesses a plus sinking fastball that sits 93-94 MPH and a slider that flashes plus when he’s throwing it well. The sinker and slider were his primary pitches while closing for Cal State Fullerton. The curveball and changeup both have some potential and if Lorenzen can develop just one of them into an average to above average pitch then he should have no problem being a nice mid-rotation starter in the Major Leagues. If Lorenzen doesn’t develop a true third offering then he will end up a really nice late innings reliever. I love Lorenzen’s motion because it is smooth and consistent so he should be able to develop some above average command as he continues his progression through the Reds minor league system. Many of the questions surrounding Lorenzen should be answered this season with his MLB debut looming in late 2015 or early 2016.
92) Grant Holmes – RHP – Los Angeles Dodgers – ETA 2018
Holmes was drafted in the first round by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2014 draft and I really like his three pitch repertoire, but the only thing that holds him back is his size. Holmes only stands 6 feet tall, but he sits in the low to mid 90s with some nice arm side run, and he even touched 100 MPH during his senior year of high school, so his size is not impacting his ability to throw with velocity. The velocity and movement make Holmes’ fastball an already above average offering, but it’s not his best pitch. Holmes’ curveball is downright nasty, and has the ability to be a true out pitch. The curveball has true two plane break and should continue to develop into a true plus offering. Finally, Holmes possesses a nice changeup that could become a nice third pitch as it already flashes some potential as an above average pitch, and if that happens we should see him develop into a nice starter with some serious strike out potential despite his smaller stature.
91) Orlando Arcia – SS – Milwaukee Brewers – ETA 2017
Arcia is Milwaukee’s lone entrant on my top-100 list as the organization has very little prospect depth in it’s minor league ranks. Arcia is the younger brother of Twins OF Oswaldo Arcia and signed out of Venezuela in 2010. Arcia will be entering his age 21 season and has the potential to be a defense first shortstop with the ability to develop into an average Big League hitter with above average plate discipline and speed, these qualities should make him plenty serviceable when he makes it to the Majors in the next few years. Arcia will start 2015 at Double-A and will be one of the younger players in the league. If Arcia continues to exceed expectations placed on him then he will continue to move up these lists as true everyday shortstops are a very limited commodity throughout baseball. I’m a little bit higher on Arcia’s offensive potential than most because his swing is compact yet fluid, but I just don’t think he will hit for much power at any point in his career. As Arcia makes the most difficult jump in the minor leagues at such a young age it will be interesting to watch his continued development because he should hit the Big Leagues at a pretty young age.
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SECAUCUS, NJ – JUNE 5: Grant Holmes puts on his Los Angeles Dodgers cap after being selected 22nd overall during the MLB First-Year Player Draft at the MLB Network Studio on June 5, 2014 in Secacucus, New Jersey. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
