A much anticipated new season begins with the first race on the 15th of March 2015 in Melbourne/Australia at Albert Park. There will be no serious changes, however, the following will sum up the most important ones:
2015 Formula 1 Preview
Power unit penalties: the replacement of a complete power unit no longer results in an automatic penalty; instead penalties are applied cumulatively based on the individual components of each power unit. Unlike in 2014, grid penalties no longer roll over to the next event. If a driver is unable to take their full grid penalty, the remainder will be applied as a time penalty for the relevant Grand Prix, on the following basis:
1-5 grid places: five-second time penalty
6-10 grid places: drive-through penalty
11-20 grid places: ten-second stop-and-go penalty
More than 20 grid places: a time penalty
New penalties: in addition to the five-second penalty introduced for 2014, race stewards also have the option to hand out ten-second penalties for minor infringements in 2015.
Points: double points will no longer be applied for the season finale in 2015.
Gearbox: teams will no longer be able to re-nominate gearings during the season – they could do it once in 2014.
Minimum weight: the minimum weight has been increased slightly for 2015 – without fuel, each car must weigh at least 702kg.
In-season testing there will be two in-season two-day tests, down from four in 2014. Two of the four days in total must be reserved for young drivers.
No standing restart after SC.
Virtual Safety Car: in a bid to improve safety, particularly in the event of double waved yellow flags, a virtual safety car system designed to ensure drivers slow sufficiently has been introduced for 2015. This can be used to neutralise a race without having to introduce the safety car itself.
Now, as follows an outlook to the current teams and cars, including a forecast for the 2015 season:
Mercedes: Lewis Hamilton No.44 / Nico Rosberg No.6
The big question is: is will their dominance continue the same as in 2014? We will have to watch and see how they outperform each other. Did Mercedes found further improvements? Of course they are constant and durable anyway, but are they fast enough? There are also three other Teams equipped with Mercedes Power: Williams, Force India and Lotus – and it could be possible to push Mercedes to the limit. The air is getting thinner, but Mercedes is the clear favorite for the 2015 season.
Red Bull (Renault): Daniel Ricciardo No.3 / Daniil Kvyat No.26
Having previously scored one title after the other there were 2014 dampers. Nevertheless to reach second place in the Constructor Championship is respectable. But after Sebastian Vettel’s departure to Ferrari with the prompting announcement of Daniil Kvyat as his replacement I would venture to say it will go further down in Constructors Championship.
Williams (Mercedes): Valtteri Bottas No.77 / Felipe Massa No.19
Is it possible to improve the third place in Constructors Championship? On paper, a resounding “YES” – Pat Symonds reorganized the Team and brought it back on successful ways. Valtteri Bottas is traded as a future world champion – Felipe Massa is in the final stages of his Formula 1 career. To overtake Red Bull I think is possible but there is another resurgent team…
Ferrari: Sebastian Vettel No.5 / Kimi Raikkonen No.7
Thanks to massive restructuring and a new driver pairing with 5 world titles Ferrari could succeed and surprise all. Both drivers have felt right at home in the new car, and were convincingly fast in winter testing plus with Sebastian Vettel as an excellent development driver for the team. He and Kimi Raikkonen have long been good friends and will remain so. Should Ferrari really found 50+ HP it is possible that all the others have to look into their exhaust because Sauber Ferrari was also fast in the winter testing. It wouldn’t surprise me if Vettel wins from the 2nd row of the grid in Melbourne the 222nd race for Ferrari.
McLaren (Honda): Fernando Alonso No.14 / Jenson Button No.22
I see parallels to Red Bull in 2014. The difficulty of working engine and hybrid system does not seem to be more successful as for Renault in 2014. Can Fernando Alonso improve the car? I will leave that open for now. When at Ferrari he didn’t succeed in the last 5 years and in another 5 years Alonso will be 38 years old and I think another world title for him is unlikely for him. With Jenson Button as teammate it is the oldest driver pairing at work with McLaren Honda. The Team paint shop before Melbourne will change significantly. The forecast is rather mixed.
Sahara Force India (Mercedes): Nico Hulkenberg No.27 / Sergio Perez No.11
Financial difficulties have affected the Team hard. They missed out on the first test in Jerez and the time schedule is far behind. In the second test they took place with a modified 2014 car and Mercedes on loan with test driver Pascal Wehrlein. Only at the third and last winter test the 2015 car was there but not ready with another day’s delay. However, it is Nico Hulkenberg as a very good development driver behind the wheel and hopefully they can perform as good as 2014 or even better.
Toro Rosso (Renault): Max Verstappen No.33 / Carlos Sainz Jr. No.55
With two new young and inexperienced drivers to start the season it is risky. The youngest in history with only 17 years is Max Verstappen. He has managed it within two years from his Karting days from Formula 3 direct into Formula 1. He won all three races in the Formula 3 Euro Series at the Spa weekend despite a reverse grid. That is remarkable and I rank him a bit higher than his teammate Carlos Sainz Jr. – the 2014 World Series by Renault 3.5 champion.
Lotus (Mercedes): Romain Grosjean No.8 / Pastor Maldonado No.13
Voices are raised: “Renault shouldn’t prefer Red Bull!” After the switch to Mercedes engines the same improvement (like Williams in 2014) is more than possible. Both drivers are after the 2014 season misfortunes highly motivated and fast. They were both on top of the list in second winter testing at Barcelona on day 1, 3 and 4!
Marussia/Manor: Will Stevens No.46 / ?
The entrance fee for 2015 is paid. If they do really compete this year it will be in a modified 2014 car but a better place than the penultimate row on the grid is nearly impossible. Before the last winter testing at Barcelona they confirmed their first driver – former Caterham driver British Will Stevens.
Sauber Ferrari: Marcus Ericsson No.9 / Felipe Nasr No.12
Is it the right way to remove both the 2014 drivers German Adrian Sutil and Esteban Gutierrez and to replace them with two pay drivers? The fans certainly aren’t happy – of course the Brazilian Felipe Nasr is quick and he has demonstrated his talent in GP2 already. Both drivers have high double-digit millions in the back and so at least the 2015 season should be safe for Sauber. Quite possible that at the end Nasr will be ahead of his team mate Ericsson. He was also fastest in the first winter test at Jerez on the day three.
Closing Remarks: All 2015 cars have significant advances in technology from the previous year. I expect that the field will be moving closer together. To make a prediction after winter testing is not possible. No one other than the team itself knows what amount of fuel was on board during the mix of tyres. We will see the real picture after qualifying on the 14th of March in Melbourne.
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