With the recruiting season over and Spring Games still two months away, now is as good of a time as any to look forward to the 2015 season. With their best season in eight years, a convincing bowl victory over Iowa, and back-to-back Top 5 recruiting classes, Tennessee head coach Butch Jones and the Volunteer program have forward momentum heading into the 2015 campaign. Tennessee is a popular pick as a dark horse SEC East winner next year and have already found themselves in the Top 25 of early polls. One of Jones’ biggest tasks will be to manage the tremendous expectations of a starving fan base while having a talented, yet still very young team. He has begun this by using the mantra of “One Year Better” as his expectations for next season. But what does that mean? What does “One Year Better” look like for Tennessee in 2015? Let’s look at these expectations — and their likelihood — in our early Tennessee Volunteers 2015 analysis.
The bottom line is wins and losses. Let’s look at Tennessee’s overall schedule.
The Vols’ 2015 will be a little better than their brutal 2014 grind, but not by much. Tennessee’s opponents had a 2014 record of 89-65, winning 57.8% of their games. Of their 2015 schedule, eight teams were bowl eligible in 2014 and six of those eight were bowl winners. Tennessee will have Oklahoma as their only out-of-conference Power 5 opponent and will have one Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) – Western Carolina – on their calendar.
For comparison, Tennessee trades Utah State and Arkansas State with Bowling Green and North Texas. While Bowling Green is a bowl winner, both of those teams are weaker than their 2014 counterparts. Tennessee trades FCS UT-Chattanooga for Western Carolina, which is probably a push. And Tennessee keeps Oklahoma on the schedule.
As far as the SEC goes, the only change is replacing Ole Miss with Arkansas. This isn’t much of change, as Arkansas is primed for a break-out season. The only thing that makes Arkansas not quite as daunting as Ole Miss is the fact that Tennessee will likely match-up to Arkansas much better this year than they did to Ole Miss last season.
Tennessee keeps their traditional SEC West rival Alabama and their SEC East counterparts Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Missouri and Vanderbilt.
Tennessee gets eight of their twelve games in Tennessee, with seven at home in Knoxville and one at their alternate home venue, Nashville. Road games include Florida, Alabama, Kentucky and Missouri. I think playing Florida on the road is actually good for Tennessee and Missouri was a far better road team than home team last season. Lastly, the bye week come right in the middle of the season before the Vols travel to Florida.
Overall, the schedule benefits the Vols and allow the team to show how much better they can be in just one year.
The “Must Win” Games: Tennessee has five games next season that they must absolutely win.
Sept 5th: Bowling Green. Tennessee must set the tone of the season early and properly execute their offense with Oklahoma in Week 2. Fans will want a statement win coming off an off-season with tremendous expectations.
Sept 19th: Western Carolina. An FCS team sandwiched between Oklahoma and a trip to Florida. Expect conservative play calling and liberal substitutions. Third week at home and two good games previous, the team should be clicking on all cylinders by this point.
Oct 31st: AT Kentucky and Nov 28th: Vanderbilt. Tennessee absolutely cannot lose ground to perennial SEC East fodder Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Kentucky showed some improvement early last season, but their lack of depth was exposed in the second half of the season. Vanderbilt regressed significantly in 2014 and with a young, unproven quarterback and assistant coaching overhauls, and while Vandy returns 18 starters in 2015 it still doesn’t look too promising on West End either.
Nov 14th: North Texas. A weak team in a non-Power 5 Conference, Tennessee must simply take care of business and send the Mean Green back to Denton with a loss.
The “Can Win” Games: This is where we find out how much better the 2015 squad is than their 2014 predecessors.
Sept 12th: Oklahoma. Tennessee actually performed better than expected in Norman in 2014. Were it not for a late Justin Worley pick-6 in the Oklahoma endzone, Tennessee would have been within a possession of the road upset. Oklahoma’s defesen exploited Tennessee’s young offensive line all night. And while Tennessee’s running game and offensive line are much better, Oklahoma will return key players on offense and defense and will be looking for redemption after a sub-par 2014 campaign. And, of course, Bob Stoops will have a lot on the line in this one. This will be a popular pundit pick for the Vols, but the Sooners still have the advantage.
Sept 26th: AT Florida. This is the one that Vol fans will be looking forward to most. For two seasons, Vol fans have thought that the program would end the losing streak to recent nemesis Florida. Last year’s disappointment was crushing for the young team. Being on the road will help the still young Tennessee squad, as will the coaching change at Florida and the multiple early Gator entrees into the NFL draft. Florida only returns 10 starters (4 offense, 6 defense) and has a question mark at Quarterback. Still, this is the biggest mental hurdle for the Tennessee program in its return to national prominence.
Oct 3rd: Arkansas. Arkansas is the Tennessee of the SEC West. A young team on the rise and a head coach with tons of personality and swagger. Arkansas’ running game matches up well against Tennessee’s talented but undersized line and inexperienced linebacker corps. Arkansas returns 9 starters on offense including four offensive lineman. However, Tennessee’s offense matches up well against the Razorback defense and Arkansas only returns six on that side of the ball. This could be similar to the Arkansas-A&M game from last season where whoever has the ball last comes away with the win.
Oct 10th: Georgia. After coming so close to upsets in the last two years, Vol fans will be expecting another close tilt with the Bulldogs, and with the game in Knoxville, a lot of Vol fans will be expecting a win. Georgia is susceptible, but again, a sturdy run-game and the return of four offensive linemen will be a challenge for the Vol defense. A younger defense and inexperience at quarterback will play to the Vols advantage.
Nov 7th: South Carolina. This one is close to a must win. A loss against South Carolina, at home, after two straight upsets would be a regression. Particularly with South Carolina less talented this year than they have been in past five seasons. Coaching changes and uncertainty surrounding The Old Ball Coach will put additional stress on the Gamecocks as they come to Knoxville late in the season. It’ll also be the first home game in a month the Vols, so expect the fans to be eager, loud and looking to send local school-boy-turned-program-villain Spurrier home with a resounding defeat in what could be his last game ever at Neyland Stadium.
Nov 21st: AT Missouri. Much like the Georgia game, Missouri returns four of five offensive linemen and most of their skill players. That will be a difficult match-up for the Vols. But, like Florida, being on the road might help the Vols as they are still young, played well on the road last year (minus Ole Miss) and strangely Missouri played much better on the road than at home. The Missouri loss to Indiana last year in Columbia is still the most perplexing loss since Appalachian State beat Michigan. Missouri is a team that is always underrated, but they return 13 starters, including many on the offense, and have won the East in the past two seasons. Don’t be so quick to count this as a win.
The “Not Quite Yet” Game:
Oct 24th: AT Alabama. On the road against a team with still more talent and more experience. While this is the most important rivalry to Tennessee, it’s still too early to expect the Vols to be competitive against the Crimson Tide. Cigars will be lit, but not quite yet.
The Analysis. Tennessee has five must win games that they must win and one game that they probably won’t. That puts them at 5-1. Of the six remaining games, it’s reasonable to expect three or four wins. That would put the program at either 8-4 or 9-3 in the regular season. Anything less than 8-4 is not “One Year Better” based on the trajectory that the program is on now. If Tennessee finishes 9-3, and two of those losses are Oklahoma and Alabama, the Vols might find themselves in a position to win the East unless Georgia or Missouri has a Top 10 caliber season, which is possible.
There are many variables that go into any season. They include Injuries, turning talent into performance, weather, and about a million more. But for right now, when we think about what “One Year Better” means for Tennessee, you have to think that 8-4 or 9-3 is a realistic expectation. Will 2015 be more of the same for a program stuck in the middle of the SEC, or are “Better” times truly ahead for Tennessee?
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