Had this article been titled, “It’s time to move on from Kovalchuk,” it’d be hot enough to burn a potato on. While the situation is not dire, we have to remove our NHL-tinted goggles and admit that Kovalchuk and his line are not quite in the spotlight at SKA anymore.
The sniper race that once was thought of as a three-man show between Ilya Kovalchuk, Steve Moses and Alexander Radulov, found a surprising entrant in 23-year-old Artemy Panarin. Fresh off a 40-point breakout season, he blew through the KHL table this year and now sits second in the league in points. Backed by his linemates Vadim Shipachyov and Evgenii Dadonov, the line has flourished far beyond what was expected. Headlines such as the one that announced, “Leading goal scorer Ilya Kovalchuk! NHL Elite Sniper!” have begun to drift away. On a nightly basis, the line that comes to SKA’s rescue is not Kovalchuk’s line, but the so-called “second line” with Artemy Panarin in the spotlight.
Let’s break down the second line, and compare its production to their first line counterparts.
First we have the centers, with the newly acquired Jimmie Ericsson and Vadim Shipachyov. On the basis of pure points, it’s quite easy to see that Shipachyov is far ahead, 50 points to 21. In terms of assists, Shipaychov sits atop the team, while Ericsson falls below. They play virtually the same ice time (16 and 17 minutes respectively). On the shallow basis of points, Shipachyov is leaps and bounds ahead of Ericsson. However, Jimmie Ericsson has many other qualities outside of points that earn him his spot on the top line. Ericsson shoots 3% more than Shipaychov, wins 8% more faceoffs than Shipachyov, blocks twice as many shots and takes almost a third fewer penalties. If we give credit to the idea that points are not fully indicative of offense, we can see that Ericsson might edge Shipachyov in the qualities of a first-line center. One could also make the argument that these are more of the qualities of a second or third line two-way center than an offensively-minded one on a line supposed to score often. Shipaychov also notes that he does not actually need to shoot as much, as breaking down the second line’s play shows that Shipaychov tends to find himself in a passing position more than a shooting position. Based on sheer production, Shipachyov is holding a first-line center role far better than Jimmie Ericsson.
Next, let’s examine the snipers of each line; former NHL star Ilya Kovalchuk and young Russian star Artemy Panarin. These two were neck and neck in their own sniper race early this season. However, Panarin has distanced himself from the NHL vet even considering that Kovalchuk missed several games due to the birth of his fourth child. Panarin sits chasing Radulov and Moses instead of Kovalchuk.
However, internally the race between the two snipers is far more equal than one might think. Both have eight power play goals to go with seven game winning goals. Panarin has only three goals on Kovalchuk but leads the team and has eight more assists than Kovalchuk, giving him an 11-point lead overall. Panarin, who is almost 10 years younger than Kovalchuk, shows more discipline with half as many penalty minutes and, while it is a terrible stat, he’s doing far better in the plus/minus department . This could be pinned down to Kovalchuk taking more defensive zone starts than Panarin.
What truly breaks the two lines apart is, and what inevitably causes a 67-point gap in production, the consistency and production that the second line is getting out of their right winger, while the top line goes through a rotating cast of characters in the position, due to the Viktor Tikhonov Jr. issue.
That’s where the Dadonov-Tikhonov match-up comes through. Dadonov sits first with 10 powerplay goals, and third in points, with a measly 10 penalty minutes to his name. Dadonov can start plays, finish plays and provide another option for Panarin if the shot isn’t there. He’s shown that he’s more than able to shoot, and dangle himself. He shoots 3% more than Panarin and plays 16 minutes, the same as Panarin on the top line. This second line is almost completely in tune with really good chemistry. Unlike the first line that relies on Kovalchuk to finish plays off, the key to the second line’s success is that its scoring is spread out amongst each of its players. Everyone can finish, make plays, and cycle, but the same cannot be said for the top line.
Who does Kovalchuk have as his right wing? Mostly it has been Viktor Tikhonov Jr., but it has been a revolving door between him, Roman Cervenka and Pytor Khokhryakov—and even two young rookies. None of these players has really caught a spark with the line. Viktor Tikhonov has barely kept up with his peers on the third “foreign” line with only 23 points and was put on the lower lines when injuries to Roman Cervenka hit. Cervenka has seen some success down the stretch to the playoffs with one goal and an assist but three games is hardly enough to declare him a success. None of the right wingers can keep up with the tight chemistry that the Panarin line is holding and, with the playoffs around the corner, a solution doesn’t seem to be coming.
One could argue that the first line-second line concepts are simply dying out in modern hockey with the decline of enforcers and teams being built with balance in mind. However, I feel for SKA the concept is still there. The foreign line remains the checking and shutdown line, the same one that kept Alexander Radulov pointless for a game. The fourth line barely plays any minutes, proving the same four-line system still exists, at least with this team.
But it’s time to move away from distinguishing the Kovalchuk as the team’s first line, and start giving Panarin’s line more minutes. Panarin’s line may just as easily be the real first line now, which proves that choosing one must be done situationally. Maybe it’s even time to turn to the younger line in times of need.
With the playoffs appearing over the horizon, I feel like the hero will emerge from SKA’s younger ranks.
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