A Look Into Louisville’s Four-Man Show

On February 3rd, Louisville beat Miami (FL) 63-55, and a grand total of FOUR Cardinals scored. Terry Rozier had 22 points, Montrezl Harrell had 18, Chris Jones had 16, and Wayne Blackshear had 7.

Just a remarkable coincidence, right?

Not exactly.

Four days later, Louisville lost a defensive battle to Virginia, 47-52. The same four Cardinals scored in that game. Rozier had 16 points, Harrell had 12, Jones had 11, and Blackshear had 8.

Those two games might be the only two that only these four players scored in, but this has been a recurring theme in Louisville’s season. Despite their loss to Virginia, they have been winning this year with, essentially, a “four-man show”. The four players lead Louisville in every non-percentage statistic except for three point attempts, offensive and total rebounds, blocks, turnovers, and personal fouls. In every conference game this season, Rozier, Harrell, Jones, or Blackshear were first, second, or third in points. Their past two games has featured more scorers, so let’s hope that can carry over for the rest of the season.

Possibly the most ridiculous stat of all is the amount of minutes those four have played. Here is a chart of Louisville’s top ten players in the minutes played category:

The amount of minutes that Rozier, Harrell, Jones, and Blackshear are playing is not an insane amount, it doesn’t even sniff the top 20 in the country, but the difference between the two groups is. To compare, Blackshear has played 7.5 more games than Mathiang. Even worse, Rozier has played 9.3 more games than Mathiang. To say Louisville has minimal depth is an understatement, even when you look purely at the fact that their top four players have played two to four extra games worth of minutes than their fifth or sixth player.

Terry Rozier and Chris Jones are two of the guys carrying that load for Louisville, and they have gotten an incredibly bad rap for their play this season, specifically on the offensive side of the ball. Rozier and Jones both take a lot of shots. On the surface, this sounds like a typical selfish backcourt tandem that loves to jack up shots. That is certainly not the case, though.

Many see Terry Rozier as a erratic, shot-taking guard (he does lead the ACC in field goal attempts) that will go to extreme lengths to score the ball. Truth is, Rozier HAS to take a lot of shots for Louisville to have any chance at winning a game. Discluding Jones, the next highest guard has 57 points on the year. That just isn’t a trustworthy source of points.

Rozier’s True Shooting Percentage is 3rd on the team (.544), as is his Effective Field Goal Percentage (.494) for players that have played at least 100 minutes this year. Not to mention Rozier’s Usage Rate is a high 28.3 percent, he is tied for nineteenth in the country in Win Shares (4.9), and his 2.2 Defensive Win Shares is good enough for eighth in the country. This is the kind of guard you want on a team lacking depth.

Chris Jones is not nearly as consistent or reliable as Rozier, but he still gets the job done for Rick Pitino despite differing opinions. Jones’ real value lies in setting his teammates up, and his defense. ESPECIALLY his defense. He is first in the ACC in Steals (51), Steals Per Game (2.0), second in Steal Percentage (3.9), third in Defensive Win Shares (2.0), and fifth in Defensive Rating (88.4).

That is quite the list, especially in a conference as strong as the ACC.

Jones has been passing the ball well this season, too. While his assist numbers don’t look great, partly because he only has three other teammates that can put the ball in the hoop, his turnover numbers have been respectable for a guy that handles the ball for the majority of the game. Only giving the ball away 2.3 times per game is not bad considering his 26 percent Usage Rate. Include that with his 348 points produced, and one starts to realize how much value Chris Jones actually holds.

I had a conversation over the Rozier/Jones debate a couple weeks ago with a Cardinal faithful on Twitter (@CardNation23), and he agreed that both guards were more valuable that the national perception would give them credit for:

Ultimate weakness for Louisville. RT “@CardNation23: Miami – 28 BENCH POINTS
Louisville – 0

THAT. IS. A. MAJOR. FREAKING. PROBLEM.”

— Bailey VanHouten (@LWOSVanHouten) February 4, 2015

@LWOSVanHouten they're carrying us. Period

— Card_Vol_23 (@CardNation23) February 4, 2015

Louisville is still have a successful season despite the reliance on their core four players. The Cardinals are 20-5, with their four of their losses coming to ranked teams (Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia). Their only bad loss was their latest one to North Carolina State. Terry Rozier fouled out of that game, finishing with seven points. That type of game won’t fly when it comes March, unless Louisville finds a hidden gem on their bench to help their top four players out.

All statistics via sportsreference.com unless noted.

Thank you for reading. Follow me on Twitter – @LWOSVanHouten. Support LWOS by following us on Twitter –@LastWordOnSport and @LWOSworld – and “liking” our Facebook page.

Have you tuned into Last Word On Sports Radio? LWOS is pleased to bring you 24/7 sports radio to your PC, laptop, tablet or smartphone. What are you waiting for?