Despite their first winning season in a decade, the Buffalo Bills once again remained at home during the recently completed NFL postseason. As a result, the franchise’s league-worst playoff drought extended to a 15th year. Even though the defense was as feared a unit of any in the entire NFL, question marks on the other side of the ball, particularly at quarterback, continue to hold this team back.
The Bills probably had the most unexpected coaching change after the regular season concluded. After two seasons as head coach, Doug Marrone decided to take advantage of a clause in his contract that enabled him to opt out if new ownership took over while still getting paid his 2015 salary. The move likely made other teams wary of Marrone from a head coaching vacancy standpoint. After interviewing with the Jets, Falcons and Bears yet receiving no offers, he ended up in Jacksonville as an assistant.
A lengthy and extensive search for Marrone’s replacement would follow. In the end, the Bills would settle on Rex Ryan who was fired from the New York Jets after six up and down seasons at the Meadowlands. With existing defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz not returning, Ryan decided to bring in Dennis Thurman who filled that same position last year with the Jets. Former 49ers offensive coordinator Greg Roman, instrumental in the development of Colin Kaepernick during his time on Jim Harbaugh’s staff, assumed that same position in Buffalo.
Before delving into the Bills three most glaring needs, let’s take a look at two important factors related to how they can address them: salary cap situation and draft picks.
Buffalo Bills Salary Cap Situation
Going into 2015, the Bills have slightly over $22.4 million of cap space below the league-wide salary cap of $140 million (up $7 million from 2014). Actually, given carryover, Buffalo’s effective cap is a tad higher at $142.647 million. 11 players going into 2015 will be unrestricted free agents, most notably running back C.J. Spiller and right tackle Erik Pears on offense in addition to linebackers Brandon Spikes and Jerry Hughes on defense.
Buffalo Bills 2015 NFL Draft
Much was made of general manager Doug Whaley’s decision to trade Buffalo’s 2015 first round pick to move up to fourth in the 2014 draft and pick Sammy Watkins. It was a roll of the dice that would impress any avid craps player. His rationale was that the pick was going to be a late round pick anyway since the Bills were headed to the playoffs.
In retrospect, there are two ways you can look at this move. It turned out he was right in the sense the Bills would’ve picked 19th in 2015 given the fact they just missed out on the postseason. On the other side of the coin, this move ended up mortgaging away a potentially valuable aspect of the team’s future to take a wide receiver in a draft that might go down as the deepest in league history at the position.
Don’t get me wrong. Sammy Watkins appears to be headed for a standout NFL career, especially if this franchise can finally get it right at quarterback. That said, both Odell Beckham, Jr. and maybe even Kelvin Benjamin might have been available without the Bills needing to give away anything.
It’s all in the past now, though. Time to focus on the future and what to expect when the Bills make their picks in Chicago in a mere two and a half months time.
Assuming Whaley doesn’t figure out a way to move back up into the first round (you never know), the Bills have to wait until the 50th pick (18th in the 2nd round) in the draft to select their first player. In the third round, they pick 17th (81st overall) while their final five selections in rounds four through seven won’t be determined until compensatory picks are assigned at the NFL’s spring meetings.
Buffalo Bills 2015 Offseason: Top 3 Team Needs
Having said all this, what units should Buffalo be focusing on from the standpoint of shoring up their roster through these two methods? With respect to the defensive side of the ball, I’m content to adhere to the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” school of thought.
You’re talking about a defense that averaged 55.5 sacks per year the last two seasons and led the league in that category in 2014. Other highlights from last season included finishing fourth in total defense and sixth in interceptions. The linebacking corps likely has the biggest question marks with looming contract negotiations coming up for Hughes who had a phenomenal 2014. That said, Kiko Alonso will be returning and looking to mirror his outstanding rookie campaign in 2013 after missing all of last year with a torn ACL.
The way I look at it, the three most pressing needs the Bills organization needs to address either via free agency or the draft exist exclusively on offense.
Let’s take a look.
Quarterback
If you follow the NFL in any capacity, you’re probably well aware that the Bills have been in the wilderness with respect to the quarterback position since Jim Kelly retired. There have been glimmers of hope since then but ultimately this position has been a major sticking point for quite a long time now.
E.J. Manuel was looked at as the latest possible franchise quarterback, but needless to say he’s ran into a few roadblocks. After a mistake-prone outing in a 23-17 loss to Houston in Week Four of last year, Manuel was replaced by Kyle Orton as the starter for the remainder of the season. Orton would announce his retirement at season’s end, once again leaving Manuel as the only signal caller on the roster with any meaningful experience.
Manuel will enter 2015 in year three of a four-year rookie deal that’s fully guaranteed. Cutting him wouldn’t make much sense from a cap standpoint as it would put over $5 million in dead money on their books for 2015. It should also be noted that for many quarterbacks, the third year is the sweet spot from a development standpoint. Look at Cam Newton, who led the Carolina Panthers to a first-round bye in the 2013 playoffs in year three of his NFL career.
If he’s going to continue to ride the bench, is free agency or the draft the more viable option to find a starter?
The 2015 quarterback class is perceived to be top-heavy at best, with only Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota expected to be taken in the first round. Brett Hundley has a similar skill set as Roman’s former protege Kaepernick but is expected to be off the board when the Bills make their selection in the second round. It’s possible they could make a pass at either East Carolina’s Shane Carden or Baylor’s Bryce Petty in the later rounds.
Via free agency, Mark Sanchez catches everyone’s eye if anything due to the relative success he had in his first two years under Ryan. Nevertheless, he fell off quite a bit in the next three before being dealt to the Eagles.
Running Back
The running back corps could be on the verge of real change. Fred Jackson will be 34 when the season begins, no spring chicken by the standards of the position. Spiller has dealt with injuries recently and was rumored to be trade bait at times last season. Neither Bryce Brown or Anthony “Boobie” Dixon look like long-term answers.
This is anticipated to be one of the best drafts in recent memory for running backs. If Spiller decides to sign elsewhere, the 2015 draft is probably their best opportunity to find a potentially immediate game changer at the position. In fact, I anticipate that their first pick in the draft will be made with this in mind.
Nebraska’s Ameer Abdullah impressed mightily at the Senior Bowl and could be there when Buffalo picks in the second round. Though I anticipate him going earlier, if Indiana’s Tevin Coleman is still available at pick number 50 selecting him might be a proposition to good to pass up.
Offensive Line
The Bills have already attempted to address this need with the recent signing of Richie Incognito. The offensive guard made the Pro Bowl in 2012 with the Dolphins but is perhaps more infamously known for the bullying scandal a year later involving teammate Jonathan Martin that snowballed into a massive locker room distraction. The fallout would cause Incognito to miss all of last season. If he can reassume his form from 2012 and put all the negatives behind him, he has a real chance to be a part of an improved unit.
Of particular concern is the central portion of the line. The Bills were one of the worst teams in the league in terms of giving up negative plays on A-gap runs. That may have been an impetus to bring in Incognito.
With Eric Wood listed as the only center on the team and entering his seventh year, it may make sense to pursue a player either through a trade or the draft. There’s a handful of players Buffalo could look at in the late rounds, including Oregon’s Hroniss Grasu, Kansas State’s B.J. Finney or Louisville’s Jake Smith.
Be sure to check out all our other team needs columns at Last Word on Sports, some of which you can view below.
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