Every year there are certain draft conundrums that baffle the fantasy baseball community. Should I take player A or player B at X draft position? More commonly, however, the ills that prove most fatal typically are the ones managers can’t see coming. Fantasy landmines. Fantasy Busts. These are the guys that you take without thinking twice, and then either unexpectedly produce at a middling rank all throughout the season or completely fall off the map. These unforeseen dangers tax the fantasy soul. Too good to drop, but too terrible to trade, the true cruelty is that often times these busts lack the swift verdict of pain or pity of a literal landmine. And so enter the familiar debates that never seem to end fruitfully: Do I sell low or wait out the storm? Is he a second half player and will he turn it around? Is this a minor injury and will recover? You try to convince yourself of a result, but you can never be to sure.
And so to save you from this terrible fantasy induced anguish, I give you my top 5 players most likely to bust. More specifically, this is my list of the top 5 players least likely to live up to their draft status.
Billy Hamilton – Avg. Draft Position: 41.2
There’s an old saying that goes, “Speed never slumps.” Some say that it’s a baseball cliché nearly as old as baseball itself. Billy is testing the virtues of that statement. He is a one trick pony with a .293 OBP. That makes stealing bases awfully hard. Even worse, that number dropped to an absolutely frigid .254 on the back 9 in 2014. Remember, that’s the stat where they add walks.
Conclusions: Not only did Billy get caught stealing a league high 23 times, which would hurt the counting totals in any league with CS, but he accompanied those staggering totals with a tremendous 6 home runs, 48 RBI, and a .355 slugging percentage. Pick your poison, and Billy’s got the worse case of it. The only reason Billy is being taken so highly is because he stole 1000 bases in the minors and has seemingly permanent green light in the majors. Standard leagues don’t care about OPS, OBP, or CS, so the theory is that if Billy can do anything with a bat then his legs will make him Standard league gold. As is the case with any fantasy golden goose, it requires being fought over. For Billy Hamilton, that means taking him ahead of the likes of Albert Pujols and Adam Wainwright. No thanks.
Bryce Harper – Avg. Draft Position: 34.9
When Bryce Harper hits the ball it goes a long way. But that’s when he hits ball. Impeding him from exceptional numbers is his propensity to miss baseball games with injury and the increasing probability to miss baseball pitches with his swing. With fledgling power, likely due to injury, and struggling contact percentages, the arrow is most certainly pointed down for the talented youngster. And yet, because of his name, his highly touted pedigree, and his relative age, Bryce continues to vault up draft boards.
Conclusions: Is 2015 the year he finally stays healthy and puts everything together? Maybe. But I won’t be finding out. His bust potential is too high relative to his average draft position for me to risk finding out.
Ryan Braun – Avg. Draft Position: 32.3
Gone are the days where you could pencil in Braun for 35/100/.300+. The “new” Ryan Braun, the non-enhanced version, is a solid player of more modest totals. That’s not to say the lights have completely turned off for Braun. Last year, despite the .266 batting average, Braun was on pace for about 25 home runs and a pretty decent year, before an injury cut his season short.
Conclusions: But that’s the thing about him, isn’t it. Injuries. A lot of them. All of a sudden. It’s the sad truth for a person who jumps off the juice to experience similar. If healthy, Braun might produce the 25/80/.275 line most projections have him doing. Might. However, I suspect that, even at 31, we don’t know too much about this Ryan Braun outside of the fact that his body is likely breaking down. I consider his ceiling to be his projection, and investing a pick on him akin to gambling on his health. Me? I’m not going to count on him staying healthy enough to see them through.
Justin Upton – Avg. Draft Position: 31.8
Picking on Upton this year is a little bit like picking low hanging fruit. The obvious warning signs are there: bigger ballpark, less explosive lineup, divisional foes not named New York Mets. An obvious fantasy downgrade across the board. Right? Well, apparently not. Upton finished 2014 as the 32nd ranked player overall in standard leagues. He is currently being taken slightly better than that value. The explanation for this is most likely because 2015 projections don’t neatly fall in line with 2014 end-of-year value.
Conclusions: Steam projections have Upton finishing with a 23/74/.253 line. The rebuttal for more optimistic projections with Upton involve discrediting Petco Park as a home run killer, extolling the new Padre lineup, and a pinch of fairy dust. But it remains to be seen if Kemp can stay healthy, if Wil Myers can play, and if Petco Park plays friendly for hitters. Call me a pessimist, but I’ll bank on a regression from Upton in 2015.
Carlos Gomez – Avg. Draft Position: 8.2
The last three years Gomez has been a virtual lock for 20/40. Especially in standard leagues that don’t penalize poor performance in the non traditional categories (like strikeouts) high totals from one player in home runs and stolen bases is very valuable and worth a small hit to other categories (like batting average). Gomez has been a popular choice for worry the last few years because of his inconsistent batting average and violent swing. However, with several years of steady production these worries have somewhat waned. In its stead a hipster like upward trend of confidence has been instilled, due to the increasing comfort in embracing high strike out totals and other unconventional methods of reliably reaching solid numbers.
Conclusions – My concern with him involves his position in the batting order and his poor second half production in 2014 and 2013. The last two seasons Gomez’s batting average has absolutely plummeted in the second half. In 2013 it fell 30 points, and in 2014 it fell 50 points. This is concerning because it may affect how he is managed, where he falls in the lineup, and ultimately, his opportunities to swipe bags. With his decision to swing at 55% of first pitches, a number almost 11 percentage points above second place, Gomez is clearly a player of extremes. I’d rather not invest a top 10 pick on a player who separates himself from other top outfielders because of his ability to excel in a wildly inconsistent category (speed), but who already exhibits the warning signs of inconsistency in the other areas that affect his opportunities. Bottom line, Carlos Gomez lives to close to the edge to trust him with a top 10 pick.
Bonus: Madison Bumgarner – Avg. Draft Postion: 20.1
My register of Bumgarner as a player with bust potential isn’t as much in regard to his statistics or some worrying trend, but rather his average draft position. The postseason hero ended up throwing over 4,000 pitches last year, second only to James Sheilds. Considering history, it’s typical to expect a pitcher who reaches this plateau to pitch less innings the following year. Currently he is being taken as the fourth pitcher, ahead of Strasburg, Darvish, Wainwright, Lester, Price, Kluber and host of other talented pitchers.
Conclusions: It is simply too much to ask of Bumgarner to reproduce his 2014 career year in which he twice won pitcher of the month. I expect Madison to pitch well but regress in totals categories, and I certainly won’t reach for him at 20 overall when a player like Jordan Zimmerman is going 54th. I also won’t be overvaluing his home park, as the past two seasons of 4.00+ home ERA have proven not to put too much stock in such a thing.
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CINCINNATI, OH – AUGUST 8: Billy Hamilton #6 of the Cincinnati Reds gets tagged out by Adeiny Hechavarria #3 of the Miami Marlins while trying to steal second base during their game at Great American Ball Park on August 8, 2014 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
