For Super Rugby fans, it all begins on the 13th February (whoever said Sanzar was superstitious) with the Friday night clash between The Crusaders and Melbourne Rebels, and that match kicks off a non-stop competition that runs right through until July 4th un-interrupted. That fact alone is a blessing in disguise as in the past, Super Rugby fans got ‘wound-up’ and then along came the mid-season break, and teams like The Blues, Highlanders and The Western Force lost their much needed momentum.
Not in 2015 – each side still has two Bye rounds, but it will be ‘full-on’ rugby from start to qualifying finals stage.
The New Zealand based franchise teams** will have a lot to play for this year, with both individual glory for their club and for the national focus on the end of year World championship. But it all begins on home-turf, so from the covered stadium of Dunedin to the green grass of Hamilton, these 5 kiwi sides each must plan for a prolonged effort to reach the semi-finals – and that is the big question “who stands as favourite?”
Last year, The Crusaders proved to be the best finishing NZ side, and if they had not lost the mercurial Dan Carter in the final, who knows what may have happened. The fact they lost to The Warratahs will be a thorn that Todd Blackadders side will hope to remove when they travel to Sydney for round 15.
Blackadder himself maybe in the spotlight more this season as much as the players will be, with no title over his tenure the results could determine how long this favourite son will continue in his role. Win, and he is certain to be asked to return as head coach. Lose, and you will see a ‘position vacant’ sign nailed over his office door (as Super Rugby is as much about results, as it is loyalty)
You would never write off the team from Canterbury who all too often travel well and who will have a choice of All Blacks to select from, that will see them ranked as near-favourites. A dent was made in their armour during pre-season, losing two matches and worryingly losing first-choice halfback Willie Heinz to a severe broken leg. That looked painful, and until Andy Ellis or another high quality half runs into form, that ‘chink in their armour’ at half may prove to be an impediment to their early success.
The best outcome for the Red & Black side, is for some new players to shine: Ged Robinson or Kieron Fonotia to make steps now, so that when All Blacks are rested and the heat is on, this side can play like former champions do. With a solid wall of defence and searching offence. The coaching staff will pressure the established players to ‘keep their spot’ and not rest on their laurels.
That leads us to The Blues, whose halfback of choice Piri Weepu decided on a move north, so interestingly instead of buying from the youth market they chose to instead invest in a grizzled veteran Jimmy Cowan. Once a steady All Black, he brings with him an aggresive nature that could benefit the side in ruffing up teams who look at the Auckland side as ‘soft’.
Competition for places might bring out the best of incumbant Bryn Hall, and Sir John Kirwan spoke of this at the clubs recent season launch – he wanted to “shake the cage” and win those tight matches. I admire that sentiment, hoping that he means get back to a ‘win smarter, not faster’ mentality. To miss out by only a single win was a poor result, so this season will be one to watch with interest.
That is where experience would count; and The Blues carry with them a large number of players with 100 plus Super Rugby games, who each can lead the side to success but those senior players will still need to be ‘managed’. If Steve Hansen thinks his international hooker Keven Mealamu requires rest, Kirwan will hope that James Parsons can assume the mantle and the same can be said for Charles Piutau, Patrick Tuipulotu and of course, their leader Jerome Kaino.
The quietly spoken colossus needs to speak loudly in 2015, and referees won’t wait for him to ask them the hard questions. To support him there, voices like Braid, Triggs and Bowden will each need to show command of the game, so Jerome isn’t a target for opposition to target.
For the 3 times champion side to achieve success over a long season, player welfare will be a prominent KPI that needs to be balanced by the development of the younger stars like Joseph Edwards, Culum Retallick and importantly at pivot. Simon Hickey announced his credentials with spurring performances in the first-half of last season, but seemed to be eclipsed by Ihaia West later that year. A question will hang over those 2 players, and how they combine with new inside/outside centres.
Having lost Nonu back to his beloved Canes, will a new centre stand tall in 2015? or will Kirwan be forced to use tactical kicking and rely on turnover-ball and penalty kicks. Hard to see that, as the option of George Moala comes with the bitter taste of court proceedings that will determine his future in the side.
With less fuss, The Highlanders go about their work in a tradesman like manner that has drawn in many fans from outside the region. You know that every player on the park has their mates back. Not a quality that runs high in professional sport, but the culture of the Highlanders is not based on colourful characters or individual performances, it is a collective outcome.
Of course with superstars like Malakai Fekiatoa and Ben Smith this side will shine in 2015, but around them is a collection of talented players like Kane Hames, Ross Glendenhuys and Hayden Parker, who will toil and work hard, so that when the ball is freed they use it wisely. They will use their possession and look to gain ascendency over teams. They don’t call it “the House of Pain” for nothing.
Coach Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown have had time to set in a motion a plan, and even with a BYE to start with, they have 5/6 games at home to begin with. With their fans behind them, and if they collect a handy 20 odd points in their first seven weeks of competition, the final stretch of ten games could point them towards a semi-final and help this franchise grow from strength, to strength. 2014 was a very good year – something makes me think, 2015 will be an ‘awesome season’ for this group.
The same could be said for The 2015 Hurricanes side. They played better at the end of the last season, with some signs of a unified gameplan which can only be built on further by new coach Chris Boyd. A debutant in Super Rugby, he will have a great support structure in John Plumtree; who is no slouch of a coach himself. They will need to direct their side more than other sides, as the ‘new boys’ look to ascert themselves in the competition and work with Conrad Smith on defining the Hurricanes future.
Coaches don’t ever win on the park. They win by good preparation and inspiring sides to perform, and this factor will ring loud. A winning team will be loved by the public, the seats will be filled and the capital will be a happy place. If the opposite occurs, Canes fans will allow the empty seats to speak for themselves, and this is why Super Rugby needs that excitement level to be reached. With a backline to match any team, others will be envious of the finishing potential that this side possesses. Firepower to run rings around a tired side, you wouldn’t be surprised for them to finish at the top of the tryscoring statistics.
Where the Hurricanes need to show immediate promise, is in the forward pack. Their locks are young and James Broadhurst will be under the spotlight to show his potential, as will many in the side. Ardie Savea will push for inclusion, so does Blade Thompson and if the pack becomes a cohesive unit with both strength and explosive power, then you would count on the Hurricanes to push many sides around.
With good coaching, they might surprise many, but it will be their hometown supporters who they will want to impress the most. I can see them entering the finals, but that depends on form and fitness of certain leaders to be firing on all cylinders in June/July.
This leads us to the most assured side in New Zealand rugby. After re-signing coach Dave Rennie (whilst losing Tom Coventry overseas) the odds improved on this side and that is not because of one signing. One of the most well organised franchises, this is a side who speak from experience and have reached the mountain top twice in succession – only matched by The Crusdaers, Bulls and Blues.
Besides some distraction from Boxing matches and media attention, they get on with the job in a unpretentious way. Its traditional Waikato stuff and it reflects the region that runs south of Rainbows End, stretching now into New Plymouth. The area is proudly provincial, look up to this side, so the players and management mirror that with honesty and integrity.
Benefitting from a mix of Maori and Polynesian styles, in 2015 you can expect strong defence with a focus on first-up tackles being made and offensive turnover ball whenever possible.
Vice-versa, retention of the ball is pivotal, so Rennie will direct the side to hold teams up, use his Jackals to rip ball off the opposition and send it out to his backline.
Both Aaron Cruden and Charlie Ngatai are smart players. Keys to the backline for this side, and while Sonny Bill Williams will push Ngatai to perform; or he will lose his spot at second-five, the bench is light when it comes to first receivers. The McKenzie boys will get a run due to rest and rotation, and I wouldn’t be surprised in Damian makes the best attempt.
But they each lack the superior confidence of Cruden, who’s life experiences and set-backs are what makes him who he is. If he is allowed to play and to dictate their fortunes, you’d be silly not to see them as favourites, as long as the kicking is accurate and kick-chase works hard [With Hosea Gear returned from Japan, that will be guaranteed]
Other players like Tim-Nanai Williams and Tom Marshall combining well will be telling points over this season. Chiefs teams are eager to score, but with the packs dominance of others, that will allow the side to build into a season where the BYE weeks are only 3 weeks apart – who planned that? Similar to last season, they need to win games in segments, but fortunately they are well drilled to maintain a consistent delivery of rugby and that will see Liam Messam talking down the favouritism, lest it put a banana skin in their path.
Championships take a whole season to collect, so while others have won the title in the last 12 months, The Chiefs have built in place strong character, with their professionalism admired by many, and soon to be copied by The Blues moving away from Eden Park to a new base at Alexander Park. Its the progression of a more ‘franchise-based competition’ and will be made more challenging in 2016 by changes in conference and a new draw.
For myself, this season will be the last where we see those big South Africa sides stamp their way across New Zealand. Where unpredictable Australian teams often jumped across the Tasman, and take unlikely victories that spoil your fantasy rugby league (thanks Brumbies).
For Super Rugby fans, this year is as much about a lasting legacy for many NZ sides: for Blackadder to finally taste victory, for The Highlanders to say “don’t forget about me”, for a Hurricane side to hold aloft the trophy, or for The Blues to remember that they can play winning rugby.
All those scenarios would bring a smile to any NZ rugby fans face, and that the champion at the end of this competition will be worthy of leading us in a new direction for 2016.
Teams rankings are based on my best rugby-guess:
#1 Chiefs #2 Highlanders #3 Crusaders #4 Blues #5 Hurricanes* *The Canes may be the Wildcard pick for 2015 – place a bet now for the best odds in Super Rugby sports betting.
** for all New Zealand Super Rugby news and fixtures, visit: http://www.superrugby.co.nz/
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