Fantasy Value for Carlos Gomez
Carlos Gomez does not get enough credit for being among the league’s best players, most likely because he broke out later than most players. Still, he has serious fantasy value. He has had at least 20 HR and 30 SB in each of the last two seasons. He came just one HR shy of 20 in 2012, but he had 37 SB. 20/20 seasons are becoming very rare. Only 5 players had 20/20 seasons in 2015: Todd Frazier, Brian Dozier, Michael Brantley, Ian Desmond, and Carlos Gomez.
The speed is going to be there in 2015, 30 SB can be reasonably expected. He hit .284 in both 2013 and 2014. An average that high is above average. That along with his .356 OBP last year should give him plenty of chances to steal. He batted fourth 37 times last year, which gave him more RBI opportunities but less chances to steal. This year, he will probably hit leadoff and get more chances to steal bases and get driven in by his teammates.
Gomez also has decent power. He should hit at least 20 HR in 2015. He hit 23 in 2014 and 24 in 2013. He probably won’t hit 30 but his ceiling is probably a little more than 25. There are some outfielders with more power than him, but the power is just a small part of his overall value.
Gomez has a career .260 batting average. That is not great, but not too bad. He hit .284 in both 2013 and 2014 with a .260 average in 2012. He should be right around .280 in 2015 with a ceiling of .300. His .260 career average is affected by him not breaking out right away in the majors. He hit a combined .243 from 2007 to 2011, before his break out in 2012. Most players have a better average than that before their 26 year old season but Gomez is a late bloomer and has proved his success is not a fluke.
Gomez will hit leadoff for a pretty good Brewers lineup that will include Ryan Braun, Adam Lind, Jonathan Lucroy, and Aramis Ramirez. If he can come close to his .356 on base percentage in 2014, he should have at least 100 runs in 2015. He had 95 runs last year with Braun not driving in as many runs as he’s capable of and not as strong of a lineup.
Gomez is very valuable for fantasy baseball. He is a poor man’s Mike Trout or Andrew McCutchen. He has above average potential in all five major categories: home runs, runs, RBI, batting average and stolen bases. His stolen base total should be well above average and all his other categories above average. He has an average draft position of about 8 according to fantasypros.com. He is a very valuable pick up for your fantasy team if you can’t get Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, or Andrew McCutchen in your outfield. There are outfielders with more power, more speed, more RBI opportunities, better averages, and with better lineups to drive them in, but Gomez puts it all together better than most.
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