It’s finally Super Bowl Sunday and you will likely be spending your day consuming copious amounts of food, pretending to tolerate all of your Super Bowl party guests, and trying to ignore that background noise that is the absurdly long six hour or so pre-game show.
However, later tonight we will finally kick-off the biggest game of the year and crown a Super Bowl Champion. It’s arguably a match-up of the two best teams in the league and we have a chance to see repeat champions for the first time in a decade when the very team Seattle is facing on the other side of the field accomplished the feat.
It should be an epic encounter and after two weeks of talking about the air pressure inside of the football, it will be nice to turn our attention to the field for the final time until the fall.
This may be the best overall team that Brady and Belichick have faced in any of their six Super Bowls. Neither team can afford to make mistakes or come out playing sloppy. New England will need a solid and refined game plan and come out to execute it. The adjustments will need to be made as the game presses on, but these should be the five biggest factors for the Patriots heading into Super Bowl XLIX:
Jamie Collins will need to play the best game of his life
When Jerod Mayo went down early in the season many New England fans felt a crushing blow had been dealt to not only their defense, but their Super Bowl chances as well. Fast forward four months and the Patriots have reached the big game despite the loss of Mayo, thanks in large part to the emergence of Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower.
Both men will be key factors in this game and could be the most important players on the New England defense. I would assign Hightower to Lynch and allow Collins go spy on Wilson for most of the day. They will need to mix it up on occasion of course, but this allows for the faster guy in Collins to shadow Wilson and cut off his rushing lanes to the outside while Hightower can focus on stuffing Lynch up the middle.
Lynch leads the NFL in yards after contact and New England will need to have success wrapping up and bringing him down on initial contact. Hightower will have his hands full, as will Collins. Russell Wilson leads the entire NFL in rushing yards on third down and he can extend plays with his legs to exploit your defense with the rush or a dart to one of his receivers on the run. Collins is smart and needs to know where Wilson is at all times, allowing his athleticism to take over and track him down. McCourty, Chung, and the rest of the Patriot secondary will have to be well aware when Wilson does scramble and make sure they do their best to stay with their man or provide extra help so the Seattle receivers don’t break away from the coverage and make a play down field.
Let Revis be Revis.
Take away the perimeter, make Lynch and Wilson both work up the middle
As mentioned above, the Patriots should use Jamie Collins to play some type of quarterback spy on Russell Wilson, but coach Belichick and the Patriots defensive staff will also need to be smart and make sure they provide him with plenty of help from their defensive ends and weak side linebackers. They will need to mix up the assignments of Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich specifically. These two won’t be able to just pin their ears back and rush the quarterback. They will need to be slightly less aggressive and take their turns playing back and providing outside protection for the opposite side of Collins.
By mixing up the assignments of these two, the Seahawks may know where Collins is going, but will be kept guessing what Jones and Ninkovich will do. They desperately need to play contain, bottling Wilson up the middle where Lynch likes to do most of his work anyway. This will give the Patriots an area of focus and let Vince Wilfork and company go to work. If Wilson is escaping the pocket early and moving the chains with his legs, it could be a long afternoon for the New England defense.
New England needs to establish success on the ground, make secondary tackle
The Patriots will need to use a mixture of ground and pound and creative outside screens to ensure their best chance at success against a very stout Seattle defense. LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray need to be fed the rock early and often, making a conscious effort to get them twenty plus carries in this game. They should use their heavy sets, bringing in an extra offensive linemen or playing with two tight ends to try and overpower a quick Seattle defensive line.
Neither of those guys have blazing speed, so Shane Vereen will be used plenty as a change of pace back. They will need to use him to try and work the outside as well as wide receiver screens out in the open field. Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, and Kam Chancellor are all rumored to be banged up heading into this game. Although they have had two weeks to heal, Josh McDaniels needs to make sure he is attacking and trying to exploit this. Quick screens to the outside for Edelman or Amendola, along with dump off running back screens to Vereen will make sure Brady is getting the ball to the outside and forcing Sherman, Thomas, and the rest of the Seattle secondary to tackle. This could also help open up holes inside for Blount and Gray, as one hand feeds the other.
Tackling may not end up being much of an issue for the Seattle secondary, since they are known as the “Legion of Boom” for a reason, but it’s something that New England needs to try and attack so they can see just how healthy these guys are. If Seattle’s secondary isn’t 100%, it could be an area the Patriots can attack with success. If the Seahawks defensive front seven is doing a good job of stuffing Blount and Gray, testing the Seattle secondary and forcing them to make plays may be New England’s only way to attack.
The special teams unit will need to be special
So much attention is paid to offenses and defenses heading into a game like this and special teams is often overlooked. The Seattle special teams unit recovered an onside kick late in the NFC Championship and are a big reason the Seahawks are in this game. The Patriots special teams need to come out matching their intensity and looking for their own opportunities to make plays.
Matthew Slater is a longtime Patriot special teams standout. I expect him to make a couple big plays either pinning a punt deep or tackling Seattle on a kickoff return. The special teams lines will need to make sure they are blocking from every angle and not allowing any kicks to be compromised.
Stephen Gostkowski has played well in his previous two Super Bowls, but is still looking for his big game moment. This could be his year and he is fully capable of nailing a long, high pressure kick if called upon. Will Bill Belichick have the guts to run a fake punt or field goal?
FEED GRONK
This one seems rather obvious, since Rob Gronkowski is the Patriots most skilled player on offense once the ball leaves Tom Brady’s hands. However, the Seahawks have had a real problem covering tight ends this season even though they have been better as of late. They have matched up against some really great tight ends like Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates, Greg Olsen, and Jason Witten but haven’t seen anyone with the combination of physicality and pass catching ability that they get with Gronk. New England needs to make a conscious effort to not get too fancy and make sure they target the big guy early and often.
They need to do the same with Julian Edelman as well. Both of these guys produced at a high level all year and got them to this point, there is no reason to try and get cute now. McDaniels should be instructing Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Brandon LaFell to run as many “pick plays” as possible without getting called for a penalty. The Seattle secondary could spend that extra fraction of a second looking to avoid contact and allow for one of the receivers to get open. A well timed pick could also aggravate one of those injuries, so a penalty or two on one of these plays might not be the worst thing in the world. They should be making this secondary shred as many blocks and make as many tackles as possible.
When New England gets in the redzone, it should be all Gronkowski but we could see Tim Wright see significant snaps as well. He is a big bodied, athletic guy who could provide a tough matchup for Seattle. The Seahawks figure to use Chancellor on Gronkowski, so it would be interesting to see who covers Wright in the endzone. Seattle has given up 11 touchdowns to tight ends this season, including three in one game to Antonio Gates. The combination of Blount and Gronkowski give the Patriots a two-headed monster down by the goal line.
This Super Bowl trip feels so important for the legacy of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. The fact they have appeared in six Super Bowls is a tremendous accomplishment in its own right. However, winning four out of six, as opposed to winning three and then losing three, feels like a big difference. A win in this game, against such a quality opponent, could be enough evidence to say this is the greatest stretch of dominance the league has ever seen.
A loss here and everything is in question yet again. Detractors can point out they haven’t won since Spygate, and make claims that Tom Brady isn’t as clutch as he’s been made out to be. Everything seems to be on the line and they know it. New England is plenty motivated from that as well as the two week long “Deflate-gate” controversy. The Patriots look focused and determined for this game. We will find out Sunday night if it’s enough to once again become champions, or if their Super Bowl dreams will be deflated once and for all.
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