We’re now in the home stretch of the offseason. In less than a month, pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, and we’re all quite excited to find out who’s in The Best Shape of His Life ™. Unless your name is James Shields, the remaining free agent selection is a veritable who’s-who of scrapheap has-beens and injury-rebounding hopefuls looking for one more shot. Oh, and a couple interesting relievers.
In essence, we’ve reached the point where if you’ve got holes to plug, it’s time to pick the lesser of many evils or pony up and make a trade. What makes all of this fun is that every team has holes on its roster, even the seemingly godly Washington Nationals (now with more Max Scherzer!). What are the holes on each team, and how would they go about fixing them? And if you’re a team that’s still looking to sell, what part of your roster can you sell from? I’m glad you asked!
We’ve already covered the AL East and NL East. Today, we begin to move towards the Pacific and take a gander at the NL Central.
The Offseason is Never Over: NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals – If You Truly Love Tony Cruz, You Have to Let Him Go
The Cardinals had themselves a nice little offseason. They signed Mark Reynolds to shore up their bench, and acquired Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden from the Braves to fill the hole in right field left by the untimely death of Oscar Taveras and to take Pat Neshek’s place in the bullpen, respectively. They didn’t sign Max Scherzer after being rumored to be in the running for the ace’s services, but it’s far from the end of the world for the RedBirds.
The fact of the matter is that the Cardinals have always had a pretty solid roster, and will continue to do so as long as they can keep churning out serviceable player after serviceable player from a farm system that’s been among the best in the game for a long time now. But even the Cardinals have a weakness, and it’s sitting right behind home plate.
No, not Yadier Molina. Well, kind of Yadier Molina. Let me explain. Yadi is one of the best catchers in the game and nobody’s questioning that. The greatest of the Flying Molina Brothers is a defensive wizard and can also hit pretty damn well, which has let him be a member of the pre-season MVP shortlists for a few seasons running. Unfortunately Yadi isn’t getting any younger, and like franchise stalwarts Matt Holliday and Adam Wainwright, he started to show his age in 2014. A down year with the bat and a late-season DL stint that left him questionable for the playoffs should be a giant red flag to GM John Mozeliak about his aging backstop’s ability to remain behind the plate for as long as he has. Yadi has been one of the most heavily leaned-upon catchers of late. He rarely takes a day off, and naturally that’s resulted in a lot of wear and tear on his body.
Tony Cruz is Molina’s little-seen backup, and he’s not particularly good. He’s not a good defender or pitch framer, and he doesn’t hit very well either. When Yadi hit the DL last year, rather than let Cruz take the brunt of the work Mozeliak went out and got A.J. Pierzsynski. For some context, Pierzynski had been so bad on the floundering Red Sox earlier that year that Boston had simply cut him loose. Pierzynski is also a noted clubhouse cancer. This is the man the Cardinals turned to, rather than let Tony Cruz carry the banner. It wouldn’t be a total shock to see Molina miss more time due to injury this year. His torn thumb ligament in 2014 was a bit of a freak occurrence, but it’s time for the Cardinals to start looking for a better Plan B than Tony Cruz.
Pittsburgh Pirates – I Really Love You, But Can You Maybe Get Another Arm? Neal It’s Not You, It’s Me
I absolutely love what Neal Huntington has done with this roster. It’s beautiful. The Francisco Cervelli acquisition is brilliant, as is the return of A.J. Burnett. Huntington has also built what may be my favorite bench in all of baseball. The Chris Stewart/Corey Hart/Jung-ho Kang/Sean Rodriguez/Travis Snider group is an absolute position of strength and has four very serviceable pinch-hitters, which is incredibly important in the NL. As usual, the Pirates also have a great-looking bullpen. I’m so excited to see what John Holdzkom can do over a full season. In the field, one hopes that Gregory Polanco is finally ready after his disastrous first taste of the majors (I’d wager he’s good to go), and that Pedro Alvarez remembers how to hit a baseball. But it’s hard to get too worried about a roster that includes Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Neil Walker, and Josh Harrison.
It’s been documented that it doesn’t really matter a ton whom the Pirates stick into their rotation (I highly recommend giving that a read, by the way). Basically, all the Pittsburgh starters need to do is induce ground balls at a prodigious rate and they’ll win. The coaching staff and front office people are brilliant like that. However, and it’s really superfluous thing at this point, it would make me really happy to see the Pirates grab another starter from somewhere. As thing stands at the moment, the rotation will be some variation of Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, A.J. Burnett, Jeff Locke and Vance Worley. That’s not too bad, especially once you take Pittsburgh’s savant-level infield defensive positioning into account. All five of those pitchers are pretty spiffy at inducing the ground ball, as is perennial Disabled List-occupier Charlie Morton. The Bucs are also looking forward to the ascension of prospects Nick Kingham and Jameson Taillon at some point in the coming season.
However, Kingham and Taillon, along with Brandon Cumpton, aren’t exactly sure things at the big league level just yet. In the event of an injury in the rotation, it’s likely that Radhames Liz or Stolmey Pimentel would be summoned from the bullpen to step into the starting five. I wouldn’t trust Liz or Pimentel further than I can throw them if there’s a prolonged need in the rotation, and Cumpton is a frequent flier on the bus to Triple-A for a reason. For that reason, I’d like to see Huntington purloin another innings-eater for his staff. It wouldn’t need to be anybody spectacular, just someone who can stay healthy and give Clint Hurdle and pitching coach Ray Searage the grounders they so very adore. The acquisition of such an arm would also make disposing of Locke and/or Worley much easier to swallow when either Kingham and/or Taillon are deemed ready for the Show. The remaining trade market is rather murky, but there’s a reason the folks who work in front offices work there. Someone can likely be had.
Milwaukee Brewers – Are You There, Doug Melvin? It’s Me, James Shields
Yearly breakout candidate Yovani Gallardo has been shipped out for spare parts, ending his longtime stint as Milwaukee’s Opening Day man. Either Kyle Lohse or Matt Garza likely has that job for the time being, but it’s worth noting that the Brewers’ rotation actually hasn’t changed a whole lot in terms of likely production level. As everyone moves up a slot, Jimmy Nelson steps into the fifth spot. You may remember Nelson from his ungodly 1.46 ERA (2.97 FIP) in 111 innings pitched at Triple-A last year, and his subsequent appearance on every mid-season top prospect list in all the land. That Jimmy Nelson, so hot right now!
Nelson got shellacked to the tune of a 4.93 ERA in a brief stint in the bigs, but his 3.78 FIP says he should be just fine going forward. Nelson likely isn’t the uber-pitcher he was at Triple-A, but has the makings of a reliable mid-rotation arm. Which is funny, because the rest of the Brewers’ staff could be called “reliable mid-rotation arms” too. Lohse, Garza, Wily Peralta and Mike Fiers aren’t going to knock your socks off, but more times than not they’ll get the job done. Of course, moving Nelson into the full-time gig at Miller Park (and trading Marco Estrada for Adam Lind, by the way) eliminates part of the depth chart for the Brew Crew.
At this point, let’s discuss how disgusting the NL Central could be this year. The Cardinals and Pirates are fantastic teams, and the Cubs are one Kris Bryant away from having a truly sinful lineup. What GM Doug Melvin needs to ask himself is, “Do I feel lucky?” Well do ya, Doug?
In all this excitement over Max Scherzer hitching his wagon to the Nats, James Shields is still sitting idly by looking for a contract. If the Brewers fancy themselves contenders (something any team sporting Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Braun needs to take a long hard look at), then they need more pitching to keep up with the rest of the division. Shields gives them a front-line arm for at least two more years, and also pushes everyone back on the depth chart. Shields/Lohse/Garza/Peralta/Fiers? I’ll buy that, sure.
Cincinnati Reds – Ladies and Gentlemen, Your New Philadelphia Phillies!
I hate to do this. I hate to be this lambasting and draw this kind of comparison. But GM Walt Jocketty has done it to himself, and the Cincinnati faithful. The following is a description of a current Major League franchise, and that franchise is amazingly not the Phillies.
“This team is trending in the wrong direction, and fast. Saddled with ghastly contracts to has-been, injury-prone franchise cornerstones at first base and second base, as well as another in the rotation, this club stayed firmly in neutral by trading away players on expiring contracts, but then added an expensive and ancient outfield bat to try to desperately cling to relevance. Even a few exciting young players, an ace, and a hotshot closer won’t be enough to make this team win.”
As you know from the title of this section, that franchise is not the Phillies, but the Reds. The similarities are almost uncanny. Instead of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley’s contracts, we have Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips. Instead of Cliff Lee’s contract, we have Homer Bailey’s. Starring as the still-brilliant pitcher that inspires dreams of a surprising title run, we have Johnny Cueto in the role of Cole Hamels. Hell, the Reds seem so intent on being the Phillies that they traded for Marlon Byrd – a Philly!. Oh, don’t worry; they’ve traded some of their talent for young talent. The Phillies are doing it, after all! Chris Heisey, Mat Latos, and Alfredo Simon were transmogrified into Matt Magill, Anthony DeSclafani, Jonathon Crawford, and Eugenio Suarez. The problem is that none of those guys are particularly interesting outside of DeSclafani, and whole Crawford could be a good pitcher someday, he’s a long ways away and pitchers have a habit of breaking.
To be fair, the Reds actually have some fun prospects down on the farm, unlike the Phillies. Robert Stephenson and Jesse Winker in particular are promising young talents, and it won’t be too long before they make it to the Great American Ballpark. And if you squint and twist your head a bit, and magically protect Votto and Phillips (and Jay Bruce and Marlon Byrd) from getting hurt, and look for improvements from Billy Hamilton and Tony Cingrani, and count on Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco continuing to hit the snot out of the ball… maybe the Reds could make one last run at a playoff berth before watching Johnny Cueto walk away and slipping into maddening mediocrity. Maybe. They would have to overcome a whole lot of talent in this division to pull it off.
Hey, at least the Reds have the All-Star game this year. I can’t wait to watch Giancarlo Stanton launch balls into the next state.
Chicago Cubs – Guys, You Know Wellington Castillo is Still Here, Right?
Congratulations, Cubs fans. The “next year” from “Just wait ‘til next year” may finally be here! Maybe. I think the kids need a year of seasoning at the Major League level before they can start leading everyone to the Promised Land, but crazier things have happened.
This is a mighty interesting roster, after all. The recent addition of Dexter Fowler gives the Cubbies the leadoff man they’ve desperately needed, and lets Starlin Castro slide into the 2 hole, which is a role he’s kind of perfect for. Bang Fowler over or drive him in, and be on base when the terrifying middle of the order arrives. Let’s think for a moment about the absolute arsenal that will be at Joe Maddon’s beck and call. By June or so, the mad scientist will be able to plug Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, Miguel Montero and Javier Baez into the lineup as he sees fit. That gets even scarier if Baez figures out how to not strike out a trillion times in a season. And Maddon gets Addsion Russell, Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora next year? Good lord. Welcome to the New World Order, folks. The Cubs have come to play.
This roster is almost as complete as it’s going to get for 2015. Some of the kids just simply aren’t ready yet, and not even a Japanese team would trade for Edwin Jackson’s contract. The Cubs are also likely to hold Bryant back until they can bring him up without starting his service time clock earlier than they’d like. All that remains is the matter of trading Wellington Castillo. Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer brought in Miguel Montero and David Ross to handle the matter of catching and providing leadership for the kids (Jon Lester also really likes throwing to Ross). That’s made Castillo expendable, which means it’s time for one last trade.
Who’s in the market for a catcher, and can afford to take on one with defensive warts? Well considering that when the Diamondbacks traded Montero to Chicago they left Tuffy Gosewhich as literally the only backstop on their 40-man roster until the Rule 5 draft, I’d think that Dave Stewart sort of needs to do whatever it takes to grab Castillo. I’ll address this in the NL West installment, but it’s almost inconceivable that Arizona will go into the season with Gosewhich and a Rule 5 pick as their catching corps. I don’t care how bad the Snakes are going to be this year (hint: they’re either starting Josh Collmenter or Jeremy Hellickson on Opening Day), you need a Major League catcher. At least one. It’s mind-boggling that Castillo has been laying around unclaimed this long.
Tomorrow, we’ll examine the wonderfully exciting AL Central.
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