We’re now in the home stretch of the offseason. In less than a month, pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, and we’re all quite excited to find out who’s in The Best Shape of His Life ™. Unless your name is James Shields, the remaining free agent selection is a veritable who’s-who of scrapheap has-beens and injury-rebounding hopefuls looking for one more shot. Oh, and a couple interesting relievers.
In essence, we’ve reached the point where if you’ve got holes to plug, it’s time to pick the lesser of many evils or pony up and make a trade. What makes all of this fun is that every team has holes on its roster, even the seemingly godly Washington Nationals (now with more Max Scherzer!). What are the holes on each team, and how would they go about fixing them? And if you’re a team that’s still looking to sell, what part of your roster can you sell from? I’m glad you asked!
Yesterday we looked at what’s hip and happening in the NL East. Today, we’re continuing to show our East Coast Bias by looking at the AL East.
AL EAST TEAM NEEDS
Baltimore Orioles – It’s Really Hard for Dan Duquette to Care About Outfielders When He’s Being Poached
The O’s lost Nick Markakis and reigning home run king Nelson Cruz to free agency, and re-signed J.J. Hardy before he could reach the open market. They also brought back newly minted uber-bench bat Delmon Young. However, they’re currently looking at an outfield situation that can largely summed up as “Adam Jones and friends.” In addition to the perennial All-Star Jones, Baltimore is slated to roll with 2014 breakout Steve Pearce (who will also see time at first base, or regress back to his below-average ways in a hurry), Alejandro De Aza, and David Lough. Ryan Flaherty, Jimmy Parades, and Henry Urrutia could also theoretically see time out on the grass, but Flaherty and Parades are primarily infielders and Urrutia is Cuban import that hasn’t quite panned out yet.
The outfield portion of free agency is almost depressing at this point, so GM Dan Duquette’s best bet is to try a trade. The problem is that for the most part, teams are largely comfortable going into the season with their current rosters, or waiting for an opportunity to pounce on in Spring Training. For that reason, it’s best to target teams that have obvious excesses. Three teams have serious overflows at outfielder right now: The Red Sox, Padres, and Diamondbacks. The Sox are division rivals and figure to go toe-to-toe with the Birds for the division title, so nothing doing there.
We turn our sights west, then. San Diego is home to the newly appointed Grand Poobah of the trade market, A.J. Preller. That’s a good sign right away. Another good sign is that one of my favorite websites in all the land, Jason Martinez’s fantastic RosterResource, has created a special “Likely to be Traded” slot for the Padres’ Carlos Quentin. Quentin is an oft-injured but slugging hulk of a man who’s probably best employed as a DH at this point. What Baltimore could do is grab Quentin, employ him as a full-time DH while sticking him in the outfield once in a blue moon. That puts Chris Davis at first base permanently, and in turn allows Pearce to be the primary right fielder (and lets 1B prospect Christian Walker get some more time to develop down on the farm). Alternatively, Baltimore could make a move for Cameron Maybin and use him as a platoon partner with De Aza or Lough. The Arizona avenue is slightly more interesting. The two potential targets out in the desert would be David Peralta and Ender Inciarte, who both had fantastic rookie campaigns in 2014. Peralta debuted at 26 after being plucked out of an independent league and hit .286/.320/.450, while Inciarte finished 5th in Rookie of the Year voting after he hit .278 and played great defense.
Of course, Duquette is currently at the center of a controversy involving him and the Blue Jays, who are trying to hire him away from Baltimore to serve as President and CEO of the Canadian club. There’ve been flat-out denials, possible prospect names discussed that would be part of a theoretical trade for Duquette, and general uproar. It’s hard to imagine that Duquette is truly able to focus on building his club while considering a bigger position at another. Frankly, this sounds an awful lot like tampering to me.
New York Yankees – Pitching, Pitching, Pitching
Everyone’s favorite Evil Empire is projected to roll out a starting rotation of Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia, Nathan Eovaldi, and Chris Capuano (until Ivan Nova returns from Tommy John rehab, that is). On paper, that’s not too bad at all. Tanaka and Pineda were both absolute money last year, and Eovaldi has a mountain of upside. The problem is that Tanaka and Pineda were both money only when they were healthy, and Sabathia hasn’t been truly healthy in quite some time.
Tanaka famously suffered a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in the midst of his dominant rookie campaign, and while the injury did not require Tommy John surgery (at the advice of three separate doctors, it should be noted), it’s hard to not be terrified that his elbow could explode at any given moment. Pineda pitched in the Majors for the first time since 2011 after dealing with the mother of all shoulder injuries and a setback along the way, and was also really freaking good. 1.89 ERA (2.71 FIP) in 13 starts levels of good. Of course, Pineda also slightly re-aggravated his shoulder in the middle of the season when he was throwing a bullpen session during his suspension for that ugly pine tar incident. When he got back he was nothing short of brilliant, but it’s still a scary sign. If the Yankees get a full season out of Pineda, they should count themselves lucky. The same goes for Sabathia, whose age and weight truly caught up with him in 2014. The knee issues he’s had recently truly came to a head, and the big lefty had to have arthroscopic surgery on his right knee (the leg he lands on when he pitches). Supposedly he’s felt better after having his knee roto-rootered, but Sabathia’s velocity also is far from what it used to be. So there’s no telling how many innings they’ll get out of him, and even if they do get a fair amount, there’s no telling how high-quality those innings will be.
Having the walking wounded for three fifths of your opening day rotation is a terrifying place to be. And the cavalry coming to help you later in the season, Nova, is returning from Tommy John. The Yanks have a kid named Bryan Mitchell down at Triple-A whose excellent stuff could make him this year’s version of Shane Greene, but that’s far from a certain thing. Brian Cashman should be applauded for not handing out a monster contract to one of the three aces that hit the market this winter (in fact Cashman’s been incredibly restrained and tactical on the whole), and instead making the team younger and building one of the most ridiculous bullpens in the game. But missing out on mid-level arms like Jason Hammel and Brandon McCarthy has to sting. Where is there pitching to be had at this point?
Cole Hamels is the most obvious answer, but the Yanks are loath to empty a farm system that’s showing promise for the first time in quite a while. Most of the pitching trades have already happened, to be honest. There’s nobody left who’s immediately attainable, except perhaps a play for a Colorado arm like Jorge De La Rosa? One internal option that’s been proposed by Mike Axisa is to convert Adam Warren back to a starter. Warren started throughout his time in the minors, and was a swingman until emerging as a dominant reliever in 2014. Due to New York’s sudden embarrassment of riches in the bullpen, they may be able to afford stretching Warren back out. Either way, we’re surely going to find out when someone inevitably gets hurt in Spring Training.
Toronto Blue Jays – Pitching, Pitching, Pitching
Unlike the Yankees, the Jays have a wonderful glut of young pitching. We all saw what Marcus Stroman is capable of last year, and also got a brief glimpse of Aaron Sanchez. Daniel Norris also had a brief cameo, but got rocked pretty bad.
That’s because Norris has barely pitched above Double-A yet. While he could be a quick riser through the system and be pitching in Toronto this summer, the Blue Jays shouldn’t count on him (or Sanchez) to produce well in the rotation. As of now, Toronto is rolling out Stroman, R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Drew Hutchison, and either Sanchez or Liam Hendricks as their rotation. The first four are a decent group, but neither the flamethrowing-but-sometimes-erratic Sanchez nor Hendricks holds much luster as the fifth man. The Blue Jays could really use one last upgrade to the rotation, and they also happen to need a closer. Thankfully, there’s a quick and dirty solution to all of this.
Enter our national man of mystery, James Shields. This signing just makes too much damn sense to not happen. Shields/Stroman/Dickey/Buehrle/Hutchison is suddenly a really good rotation, and Aaron Sanchez also happened to be pretty terrific as a reliever last year. Boom, there’s your presumptive closer. Bring back Casey Janssen, who’s still a free agent and hopefully fully healed, to serve as a backup plan alongside Brett Cecil, and you’ve got a stew going. The Jays would immediately establish themselves as the team to beat in the East, while preventing Brian Cashman from making a desperation buy on Shields when someone gets hurt, or the from Red Sox finally waking up and realizing that they really do need an ace (more on that later).
I’d also like the Blue Jays to look into those rumors of “left-handed hitters” that they’ve been hearing so much. Maybe they really do exist!
Tampa Bay Rays – You Do Realize John Jaso Can’t Catch Anymore, Right?
The Rays ended the Jose Molina era this winter by designated the elite pitch-framer (and non-elite hitter) for assignment, and then turned Ryan Hanigan into Rene Rivera in the three-team trade that also netted Steve Souza from the Nats. Rivera had a fantastic breakout year at the plate last year, and also comes with a great defensive reputation. Basically, Hangian+. Curt Casali figured to come up from Triple-A to serve as Rivera’s backup, until Tampa flipped Yunel Escobar to Oakland for John Jaso. Jaso has a pretty good offensive reputation himself, and plays some first base too. Great fit for the flexibility-loving Rays, right?
Not really. Jaso’s had some serious issues with concussions in the last few years. At one point he said he “couldn’t see the ball” when he was catching, so Oakland quickly moved him out from behind the plate. While Jaso and the Rays claim that he’s been feeling better and that they’ll closely monitor how much time he spends catching, it’s a hairy situation. Jaso isn’t the kind of bat you let ride the bench and take the odd spot here and there when Rivera has the day off. You want him in the lineup, and you also don’t want to not have anybody on the bench that can catch in case something happens to Rivera.
Tampa can’t think of Jaso as their first alternate to Rivera or they’re in for some serious trouble. Jaso is a 1B/Dh at this point, and you know what? That’s okay! That’s how they’re going to get the most value out of him, and they haven’t had a true backup to James Loney in quite some time. A primary DH isn’t the worst thing in the world to have, either. Tampa just needs to find room on the roster for Casali, because they’re going to need him.
Boston Red Sox – No, Rick Porcello Cannot Be Your Best Starter If You Want to Contend
What a winter Boston’s had, huh? Here’s whom they’ve brought in:
- Pablo Sandoval
- Hanley Ramirez (to play the outfield!)
- Rick Porcello
- Wade Miley
- Justin Masterson
- Anthony Vavaro
- Ryan Hanigan
They also signed Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo, who got a little cup of coffee at the very end of the season and looks to be their starting center fielder for 2015. Youngsters Mookie Betts and Christian Vasquez will be integral parts of the squad as well. The new-look Red Sox are exciting, they’ve got a lineup from hell, and they’ve got oodles of young talent waiting to break in from the minors. What a time to be a Boston fan.
They’re also planning on starting Porcello on opening day. That’s… odd, to say the least. For as much of an overhaul the Sox have had, they didn’t add a true impact starter to supplant the loss of Jon Lester to Oakland, and their failure to bring him back. Part of this can be chalked up to the financial restraint of Boston’s front office with respect to pitchers. Before the 2014 season opened, the Sox offered Lester an extension worth somewhere between $70-$80 million over four years. Lester, obviously, turned it down. A few months later Lester was on a plane to Oakland, and now he’s a Chicago Cub on a $155 millon, six year contract.
This is a double-edged sword in some ways. The history of over-30 pitchers on massive contracts isn’t pretty to say the least. Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Barry Zito, and Josh Beckett all come to mind. Boston already dolled out some serious money and time to Sandoval and Ramirez, and neither of them figures to age very well either. The Red Sox also have some impressive-looking youngsters who could be on the mound at some point this year, including Henry Owens and Matt Barnes. The trade deadline also presents opportunity to snag an impending free agent from a team that’s out of the playoff run. Johnny Cueto and the Reds come to mind.
And why haven’t the Sox spent some of their many prospects on Cole Hamels? As I said yesterday, the Phillies are looking for a big catching prospect as part of the package they would receive for their ace. Boston has possibly the biggest catching prospect of the moment in Blake Swihart, who may end up being a force on both offense and defense. Swihart is the kind of player that it’s really tough to throw away, especially when he’s so close to the majors. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs proposed a trade yesterday that’s also quite interesting; a Mookie Betts-for-Stephen Strasburg swap. Basically, Red Sox fans, you may have to live with Porcello on opening day. But I wouldn’t bet on him being the best part of the Red Sox staff for too long.
Tomorrow we’ll be looking at the NL Central, which means it’s time to talk about those exciting Cubs! See you then.
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