We’re now in the home stretch of the offseason. In less than a month, pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, and we’re all quite excited to find out who’s in The Best Shape of His Life ™. Unless your name is James Shields or Ichiro Suzuki (who’s in this titanic twosome purely for name recognition and the fact that he’s a hair’s breadth away from 3000 hits here in MLB), the remaining free agent selection is a veritable who’s-who of scrapheap has-beens and injury-rebounding hopefuls looking for one more shot. Oh, and a couple interesting relievers.
In essence, we’ve reached the point where if you’ve got holes to plug, it’s time to pick the lesser of many evils or pony up and make a trade. What makes all of this fun is that every team has holes on its roster, even the seemingly godly Washington Nationals (now with more Max Scherzer!). What are the holes on each team, and how would they go about fixing them? And if you’re a team that’s still looking to sell, what part of your roster can you sell from? I’m glad you asked! This will be the first in a series of articles that looks at the stuff that each of the thirty teams in MLB need to address on their rosters. Let’s start with the NL East.
Washington Nationals – The Most Impressively Mediocre Bullpen in Baseball
On paper, the Nats have just about the best roster in baseball. Any team that has to deal with a “too many aces” problem is in one hell of an enviable position. Jayson Werth is going to miss some time while recovering from surgery, but shouldn’t be out too long, and the opening gives prospect Michael Taylor room to theoretically step in and get some big-league seasoning. Basically, everything’s fine and dandy for the bulk of the roster. Heck, even the bench looks good.
The problem lies in the bullpen. This isn’t a Tigers-sized issue (more on that in a later installment), as there’s a decent collection of at-least-decent pitchers out there. Plus, Tanner Roark is probably joining them out there due to the new 200-million-dollar gorilla in the rotation. The issue itself lies at the end of the bullpen, and the end of the game. Drew Storen should make a fine closer. He’s done it before, he’ll do it again, and he’ll do it pretty well. He just really wishes he had some company out there. Ever since Tyler Clippard was transfigured into Yunel Escobar and Rafael Soriano pitched himself out of town, there’s been a stark lack of obvious set-up options.
Currently the two who figure to take those roles are Aaron Barrett and… Matt Thornton? Yikes. Barrett is an interesting arm and had good peripherals last year, but if anything I see him more in the 7th than as an 8th-inning type. Thornton is a glorified LOOGY and shouldn’t be treated as anything other than that. He had a nice run once he got traded from the Yankees to the District of Columbia, but that isn’t the new book on Thornton at this point in his career. Mike Rizzo has supposedly been looking at Cassey Janssen as a possible solution, but if you read the reliever piece I linked to above, you know that isn’t exactly the best idea. Of the remaining closers on the market, Francisco Rodriguez is the option I like the best. His new fly ball issues are slightly hidden in a Washington ballpark that plays pretty impartially between hitters and pitchers, and the Nats have a pretty good defensive outfield. Alternatively, Rizzo could turn one of his extra pitchers (Fister?) into one of the Royals’ uber-relievers. Dayton Moore has been said to be listening on them, and the Royals just replaced James Shields with Edinson Volquez. Ick. I’m sure Doug Fister would be plenty welcome in Kansas City, and I’m sure Wade Davis would have no issue closing if Greg Holland suddenly found himself in DC.
New York Mets – The Michael Cuddyer Memorial Physical Therapy Center
When the Mets brought in David Wright’s good buddy to play right field, I wrote a few words that tried to make sense of what exactly Sandy Alderson was doing spending all that money and sacrificing a first round pick to employ an ancient DH to play right field in a pretty big park. Sure, the fences are coming in again, but geez, Cuddyer’s something of a butcher with the glove out there. For the lazy folks who didn’t click the link, I basically said that I’d be okay with the Mets punting a draft pick on this kind of signing if it meant that it was a precursor to a spending spree on more signings to put them squarely into the welcome arms of contention.
Obviously, that never happened. The Mets signed Cuddyer in November and essentially called it an offseason. Besides the inevitable trade of Dillon Gee for… something with a pulse, the Mets are basically hoping that the returns of Matt Harvey and Bobby Parnell from Tommy John rehab, along with some key contributions from prospects like Noah Syndergaard and Wilmer Flores, will be enough to stumble into a Wild Card slot. To be fair, the Amazin’s got really screwed by injuries last year. They lost Parnell on Opening Day, which unleashed an avalanche of save attempts by the law firm of Farnsworth, Valverde, and Matsuzaka. Thank goodness Jenrry Mejia emerged as a viable closer, and Jacob deGrom did a passable job taking his place in the rotation. David Wright himself was a victim of “playing-through-the-pain-itis” as I like to call it, which torpedoed his usefulness for the year. In summation, everybody getting healthy (and Cuddyer actually staying healthy) would go a really long way in Queens.
I should also make a note about Flores, the newly anointed king of the New York sports radio call-in show. Flores and his defensive question marks have found themselves the subject of many a Mets fan’s ire. The assumption is that Flores is going to be just godawful with his glove, and his bat won’t provide any justification for his continued presence in the lineup. Basically, the Queens faithful wanted to rid themselves of Ruben Tejada, and got his polar opposite. I say this: give the kid a chance before crucifying him to the Home Run Apple. He’s not that bad on defense, and his bat is going to surprise a lot of people.
Miami Marlins – Adieny Hechavarria’s Serious Case of Derek Jeter Syndrome
Want to know one of the best-kept secrets of sports television? Adieny Hechavarria is bad at baseball. Not just with his bat, either. That we already knew. “But Nick,” you say, “he’s a great defensive shortstop, and that has value! Brendan Ryan in his heyday, Ozzie Smith!”
That’s the thing, though. Hechavarria is a fantastic highlight reel player. I have to give the guy that much, he makes some seriously pretty plays. Matt Kemp made some fantastically pretty plays when he played center field. Derek Jeter spent his career making impressive-looking plays. What Kemp and Jeter have in common with Hechavarria, though, is that they’re not good defensive players. In what I like to call “Derek Jeter Syndrome,” Hechavarria makes stunning plays because he has to. On balls that most shortstops get to and field normally, Hechavarria has to do his best Jeter impression, which means diving and twisting and jumping and generally putting on a great show. Because of these displays of athleticism, we automatically assume that this is what defensive wizardry looks like. That isn’t necessarily untrue; the nearest Andrelton Simmons highlight reel can tell you that. But Simmons has to make those kinds of plays on balls that nobody else gets to. Hechavarria has to make those plays on balls that other shortstops usually just gobble up.
For some context, Hechavarria posted an -8.4 UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 defensive innings played) in 2014. That was the fourth worst in all of baseball among qualified shortstops, just a tick above Jeter’s -12.5. Jeter was a valuable player because of his bat. Hanley Ramirez and Starlin Castro fit this mold too, as will the aforementioned Wilmer Flores. Hechavarria can’t hit. He was worth 0.6 fWAR last year, and Steamer has him at a whopping 0.2 for 2015. The Marlins have made some seriously impressive additions all over their roster, and they should be lauded for that. But goodness gracious, someone please get them a new shortstop.
Atlanta Braves – The Tanking Team that Only Kind of Tanked
For the vast majority of the offseason, I really hated what John Hart had done with the Braves. There were two avenues that Hart could have taken coming into the winter. The first involved restructuring an offense that finished second to last in the league in runs scored, and owned the fourth-highest K%. The second involved blowing the whole damn thing up and rebuilding with an eye to the new stadium’s ribbon-cutting in 2017. At first, Hart seemed to be firmly aiming for option number two. Tommy LaStella, Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden were flipped for pitching. Rather than gamble on Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy recovering well from major injuries, the two were simply cut to save payroll.
And then he signed Nick Markakis to a four-year deal for $44 million. What? The Markakis deal sticks out like a sore thumb when you consider that Hart’s also traded away Justin Upton, Anthony Vavaro, David Carpenter, Chasen Shreve, and Evan Gattis. A rebuilding team doesn’t sign an over-30 outfielder that’s lost most of his power and speed. It’s just weird. Jason Grilli is also a bit of a weird signing, but I think he got a job in Atlanta because Hart plans on flipping Craig Kimbrel for a king’s ransom at the trade deadline.
But once I looked at the full list of what Hart’s gotten in return for all his moves this winter, the picture becomes pretty clear. The Braves have gotten a metric ton of pitching prospects in the past three months. Most of them aren’t anything incredibly sexy, but instead high-floor, modest-risk projects like Manny Bañuelos and Mark Foltynewicz, or projectable arms like Tyrell Jenkins and Max Fried. Hart also managed to snag Shelby Miller in the Heyward deal. If Miller can finally get an actual third pitch into his arsenal, he could be pretty stinking good. The Braves are going to be a ridiculously bad team this year, but they’ve got some talent waiting in the wings all of a sudden and could be quite an interesting group in a few years. They’ve still got the Kimbrel trade to make, though, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mike Minor take a hike before Spring Training is through.
Philadelphia Phillies – Ruben Amaro and the Cole Hamels Sweepstakes
Oh, Ruben. I’ve trashed you in the past, I really have. Heck, everyone has. But I’ve got to hand it to you, Ruben. You’ve surprised me recently. You traded Antonio Bastardo! You traded Jimmy Rollins! You traded Marlon Byrd! Goodness gracious, the rebuild may have actually started in Philly. It’s about damn time. Wait, what’s that, Ruben? You don’t think you’re going to trade Cole Hamels? You mean the lefty ace that’s under team control for four more years and only $90 million, who’s undoubtedly the best trade chip you have in your pocket? Why, Ruben, why?
Yes, ladies and gentlemen, America’s favorite baseball punching bag is at it again. I’m happy to report that this may not just be Ruben being Ruben once again, however. Amaro (understandably so, I might add) wants a sizable package of talent for Hamels, and is said to be particularly interested in acquiring a good catching prospect in the process. That sets a number of teams back in the race, and many other are also waiting to see what the heck is going on with that James Shields character before they empty their farm system for Hamels.
Amaro may also be doing what John Hart is doing with Craig Kimbrel, and waiting for the trade deadline. Prices are usually higher in the dead of summer, because the selling teams can exert more leverage over the buyers, who are desperately competing against each other to acquire talent that could send them to October. If Hamels has an especially dominant first half, it also drives up both demand and price. So, let’s not bust out the torches and pitchforks just yet. There’s still a month of offseason left, plus Spring Training. Someone is going to get injured in camp, and that player’s team may just turn to Hamels to fill the void. Remember that an injury to Aaron Boone of all people drove the Yankees to trade for Alex Rodriguez.
In the meantime, Ruben, how about you consider eating some of Jonathan Papelbon’s salary and looking for someone who needs a closer? Ken Giles is a ready-made replacement, and we all know you don’t want Papelbon around anymore.
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