When I first heard about Seattle trading Michael Saunders for Toronto’s J.A. Happ in December I didn’t know what to think. To be honest I am a big fan of Saunders and the Mariners so I wanted him to succeed in Seattle. I consider myself an optimist though, so once I stopped throwing a hissy fit over Saunders, I turned my attention to Happ. When I looked at his Fangraphs page it doesn’t blow the doors off my ’99 Toyota 4runner (what can I say I enjoy the finer things in life). Anyway, it’s nothing interesting or at least it wasn’t until I took a look at Chris Young’s page. Allow me to show you the career lines for both Happ and Young.
| Name | Wins | Losses | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP- |
| J.A. Happ | 51 | 53 | 7.58 | 3.79 | 4.24 | 109 |
| Chris Young | 65 | 52 | 7.36 | 3.43 | 3.77 | 109 |
**Note: FIP- (fielding independent pitching minus) is just a simple way to see how a player preformed compared to the league average which is at 100. So anything above 100 is below average and anything below 100 is above average.
Man those numbers look awfully similar to one another. I mean besides for the ERA. The one reason I wanted to include FIP- was to show that just because their ERA differed by almost 50 points, they performed basically the same over their career. That is due to the park factor differential beween the two. Just because a pitcher doesn’t pitch well in one home park doesn’t mean he won’t pitch well in another.
Check out these numbers from Young’s line in Seattle for 2014 and Happ’s line in Toronto for 2014.
| Name | Games Started | Innings Pitched | Wins | HR/9 | HR/FB | ERA | xFIP |
| J.A. Happ | 26 | 158 | 11 | 1.25 | 11.5% | 4.22 | 3.95 |
| Chris Young | 29 | 165 | 12 | 1.42 | 8.8% | 3.65 | 5.19 |
**Note: xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) basically shows what ERA a pitcher should have had if he experienced league average balls in play and league average homeruns allowed.
Let’s focus real quickly on the HR/9, HR/FB rates and xFIP. Looking at Young he allowed an above average HR/9 rate yet had a below league average HR/FB ratio. Why? Because balls that would have been homeruns in the majority of baseball parks are just deep fly balls at Safeco. Even with the fences being moved in that heavy marine air really slows down the flight of the ball.
Check this out; Young allowed 26 homeruns total last year. Guess how many he gave up in Safeco Field? Eight. His xFIP reflects that as it shows what his ERA would have been had those deep fly balls crossed the fence. Happ’s numbers, on the other hand, show that he would benefit from a move to a more pitcher friendly park.
Young had outperformed his peripherals in 2014 because he pitched over half his games at Safeco Field, and I believe the same will happen with Happ.
In fact I think Happ is going to bring more value because of his potential strikeouts. While their career K/9 average is practically the same, Young is a few years older and thus has lost some zip on his pitches. In 2014 Young posted a 5.89 K/9 with 108 strike-outs while 2014 Happ posted a 7.58 K/9 with 133 strike-outs. And if you have been reading the reports, Happ has added a couple mph’s on his fastball meaning even more potential strikeouts.
The only downside is the high walk rate that Happ carries around with him and, with the hits he will allow, his WHIP could be a burden on your team. However, he will be counted on as a #3 starter in Seattle which means, barring any injury (which he can be prone to), will be able to produce anywhere from around 160-180 innings. Place that with the strikeouts and ERA and that’s a valuable starter especially in deep roster or 12+ team leagues.
Unfortunately I don’t have a crystal ball nor do I have mystic powers from beyond. All I have is a computer, internet access, experience, and dashing good looks. OK, OK, you got me, just the first three. When I started writing I told myself that I would stand my ground and listen to my instincts. Well Happ, at least to me, is a great candidate for a deep sleeper pick and will definitely be on my radar come draft day.
**All stats courtesy of Fangraphs.
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