On Wednesday, January 14th, the Atlanta Braves traded slugger Evan Gattis to the Houston Astros for minor league prospects Mike Foltynewicz, Rio Ruiz, and Andrew Thurman. Let’s look at the fantasy impact.
For the Braves:
Atlanta’s offseason moves (other than the questionable Nick Markakis signing) have made it apparent that the club is looking towards the future, rather than 2015. Trading Gattis made sense, and the Braves were wise to cash in on him while they could. He wasn’t going to catch for them (his defense is questionable there), he wasn’t going to play first (Freddie Freeman), and he grades out as a pretty bad defensive left fielder, but boy can he hit a baseball really far. While Braves fans might be disappointed to be losing a fan favorite, they can take solace in the promising haul of prospects from the Astros.
Foltynewicz is the main prize of the deal from Atlanta’s side. The 23-year-old RHP was the #4 prospect on a loaded Astros farm, according to MLB.com. “Folty” made his MLB debut in late 2014 for the Astros and was used out of the bullpen. He is a pure power pitcher with a fastball that reaches triple digits, but most scouts believe he needs to develop more consistency with his offspeed pitches, all of which grade out in the 50s on the 20-80 scouting tools scale (50s=average). His main issue is command, a common problem with fireballers, which leads some to believe that he’d best be suited in a reliever role, rather than a starting role. However, the Braves reportedly are confident that his command can be improved, and given the rest of his tools, he should be part of the rotation in 2015 and beyond.
As always, drafting/buying rookie pitchers in fantasy is risky business, so I’m not going to declare Folty a must-have just yet. His upside is very intriguing though, so in keeper/dynasty leagues he is a nice prospect to own, but in non-keeper/dynasty leagues he might be worth a late round stash or a couple of bucks in auctions.
Ruiz, the former #9 prospect in the Astros organization, looks to be the Braves’ third baseman of the future, but is probably a year or two away from the majors. He is a decent hitter, capable of an average in the .270-.290 range with average power (10-15 HRs), but offers little production as a baserunner. He is just 20-years-old though, so there is plenty of room for growth.
Thurman will probably be considered the throw-in of the deal, but he’s no slouch either. MLB.com’s prospect rankings only go up to 20 for each team, but if there were honorable mentions, he would’ve been somewhere between #21-25 for Houston (remember their farm is/was loaded). Like Ruiz, Thurman might be a few years away from the bigs. He’s not a top-of-the-rotation prospect, so owning him in keeper/dynasty leagues is not advisable, but once he reaches the majors he could be a viable fourth or fifth starter, which means he could be ownable in deep leagues in the future.
For the Astros:
It will be very interesting to see how the Astros side of this turns out. In Gattis, Houston gets a guy who is good at one thing and one thing only: killing baseballs. He doesn’t walk much and he doesn’t make great contact for a hitter who is as aggressive as he is, but Evan Gattis has some major right-handed pull power, which is great for Minute Maid Park and its relatively shallow left field. Speaking of left field, I think that is where we will see him the majority of the time, since his defensive shortcomings can be somewhat hidden in that shallow left field, followed by DH and 1B.
Gattis will almost certainly not catch for the Astros. As I mentioned earlier, his defense there leaves much to be desired, and Houston is already carrying four catchers on the 40-man roster: Jason Castro, Carlos Corporan, Max Stassi, and the newly acquired Hank Conger. Chris Carter, who hit 37 homeruns in 2014, will likely be the main DH, and Jon Singleton, who disappointed in his 2014 call-up, will play first base. All three players could rotate between LF/1B/DH, although I don’t see Singleton playing much outfield. It was thought that the Astros would platoon Jake Marisinick and Robbie Grossman in left field, but that situation is further muddied by the acquisition of Gattis. If Singleton continues to struggle, the Astros could demote him and split Gattis/Carter between 1B/DH and go with the original Marisinick/Grossman plan in LF.
There is also the possibility that one of these players gets traded by the July deadline. Gattis likely won’t be traded, since he is controlled for four years, so keep an eye on any rumors involving Carter, Singleton, Marisinick, or Grossman.
Assuming he gets full-time at-bats, Evan Gattis should put up career numbers in 2015, especially while playing half of his games at Minute Maid Park. He has 40-homer power, but his poor plate discipline probably puts him in the 25-30 range. For a guy who will most likely be OF, 1B, and C eligible in most fantasy formats, that is EXTREMELY valuable. It could bump his value into the top 100-125 overall range.
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LOS ANGELES, CA – JULY 30: Evan Gattis #24 of the Atlanta Braves bats against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on July 30, 2014 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images)
