Jacob DeGrom was a revelation for the 2014 Mets leading to the National League Rookie of the Year Award. Among National League starters with over 100 innings, DeGrom leads all rookies with his 2.69 ERA. The question is whether DeGrom will be able to keep this up in the future. In order to do that, it will help to find a comparable to DeGrom’s rookie season success.
Among the 235 rookie starters that have thrown a minimum of 100 innings since 2000, 42 pitchers have had a K/9 of over 8 and 80 have had a BB/9 of better than 3. DeGrom with his K/9 of 9.24 and a BB/9 of 2.76 fits comfortably into both of those categories. DeGrom is one of eleven pitchers who fit into both.
| Name | Team | IP | K/9 | BB/9 |
| Mark Prior | Cubs | 116.2 | 11.34 | 2.93 |
| Francisco Liriano | Twins | 120.1 | 10.47 | 2.62 |
| Cory Luebke | Padres | 116.1 | 9.75 | 2.55 |
| Mike Fiers | Brewers | 126.2 | 9.45 | 2.56 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 136.1 | 9.31 | 1.39 |
| Roy Oswalt | Astros | 127.2 | 9.16 | 1.2 |
| Michael Pineda | Mariners | 171 | 9.11 | 2.89 |
| Jacob DeGrom | Mets | 140.1 | 9.24 | 2.76 |
| Shelby Miller | Cardinals | 179.1 | 8.83 | 2.96 |
| Mike Minor | Braves | 122 | 8.7 | 2.95 |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | 136 | 8.21 | 1.59 |
This group of pitchers includes several rookies including Shoemaker and Tanaka. Who it also includes is several pitchers who were among the best pitchers in baseball for a period of time with Prior, Oswalt, and to an extent prior to his injury, Francisco Liriano. His inclusion on this list shows DeGrom’s elite ability to combine excellent control and strikeout ability. This list is full of players who have had extensive success at points in their career and provides faith in DeGrom’s ability to repeat his success. Also, using this season’s league average for HR/9 (.87), DeGrom is well above average at limiting home runs (.45). Combining those three statistics, DeGrom is in rarefied air. Liriano was the next best among the above starters with a .82 HR/9.
It is not inconceivable to compare DeGrom’s numbers to Liriano’s, although Liriano’s strikeout ability is much better than that of DeGrom’s. Looking at the rookie leaderboards, there is one other pitcher who can be favorably compared to Degrom — Tim Lincecum. In his rookie season, Lincecum threw 146.1 innings-6 more than DeGrom, and had a K/9 rate of 9.23. Lincecum also had a GB% of 47, which compares favorably to DeGrom’s number of 45%. Additionally, Lincecum was above average at limiting home runs with a HR/9 of .74.
The comparisons between Lincecum and DeGrom don’t end there as both pitchers have a very similar pitch-mix. While early in his career Lincecum featured both a slider and curveball almost equally, and a change-up as his most heavily used off-speed pitch, as his career progressed he began to feature his slider more than his breaking ball. DeGrom features both a slider and a curveball like Lincecum, but he uses the slider more than the curveball. He also uses a change-up about 12% of the time. If DeGrom begins to feature his change-up more often, a pitch that many people consider to be above average, DeGrom could potentially have a stretch of dominance that approaches the dominance that Lincecum had early in his career.
Based on the various things that DeGrom has excelled at in his short stint as a major league starter, all signs are trending up for the young right-hander, who will combine with Matt Harvey, Zach Wheeler, and the other Mets pitchers — eventually including high touted prospect Noah Syndergaard — to potentially give the 2015 Mets the best young rotation in baseball.
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