Every year there are players that undermine fantasy seasons by not playing up to their expectation. Below are a few players who are potential Fantasy Catcher Busts.
Sometimes they are players coming off a dream season that appears very unlikely to repeat. Other times, they are getting older and are not as good as they were at their peak. In some extreme scenarios, their performance falls off a cliff.
Below are some players who seem most likely to under achieve. While it us unlikely that all of these players are going to see their numbers crater, there is a reasonable risk of them underachieving in comparison to their perceived value.
Devin Mesoraco: If you were lucky enough to grab him last year, congratulations you had a leg up on the competition as he hit .273 while also hitting 25 Home Runs. Based on 2014 numbers, he is likely to be over rated as the season approaches. While his performance isn’t going to crater, it’s likely that for some players, expectation is not going to match up to reality as there is an uphill battle for a repeat of last year’s numbers. In 2014, his BABIP was 38 points above his career total and his HR/FB rate was about twice what it had been the previous two seasons.
Russell Martin: On the surface it would appear that Martin’s move to the AL and a more potent Blue Jays lineup would foretell an increase in fantasy value. While there could be incremental improvements with his power numbers, one thing to keep in mind is that his 2014 BABIP was 47 points above his career total and thus it is unlikely that a repeat of his .290 Batting Average from last year is reasonable to expect. While his defense may help the Blue Jays in real life, Martin’s impact on fantasy leagues has a higher chance of falling short of expectations.
Yadier Molina: Molina, like Martin is someone that is more valuable in real life due to his defense than he is in Fantasy. While he should provide a decent batting average, there are some concerns from a Fantasy standpoint. The combination of age (he turns 33 in July) and whether he can stay healthy all year is one thing. However, combine that with the fact that his power numbers have also decreased over the last couple seasons indicates that he could leave fantasy owners disappointed in 2015.
Derek Norris: On the surface, it would appear that Norris is more of a sleeper as he hit .270 with 10 Home Runs last year and that he would be getting better as he will only be 26 by opening day. However, his BABIP was 22 points above his career total and having the double whammy of being traded over to the National League and having to play half of his home games at Petco Park indicate that he could have a difficult time repeating last year’s production.
Jason Castro: Granted, Castro is generally not going to be ranked highly due to a mostly mediocre body of work and playing on an Astros team that is not expected to contend. However, there may be people out there that could see him as a sleeper due to the solid season he had in 2013. If you have entertained that thought, I have one word and that word is stop. That one good season was primarily BABIP fueled as his BABIP was 44 points above his career total that year. It also doesn’t help that his Line Drive rate (LD%) was decreased over the last two seasons.
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