As 2015 comes to a start, we start crawling very slowly towards the start of another baseball season. To help it feel like summer, here are my early Shortstop Rankings for this year.
2015 Shortstop Rankings Part 1
25) Yunel Escobar
Projection: .268/.335/.365 9 HR 50 RBI 55 R 2 SB
Escobar’s value is on the downward trend. There’s already a low AVG and almost nothing provided in the power and speed departments. Considering he’s already turned 32, I don’t see his numbers turning around.
24) Jordy Mercer
Projection: .262/.312/.402 12 HR 55 RBI 55 R 2 SB
The Pirates may have made a cameo appearance in the 2014 playoffs. However, that does not mean there is much in terms of fantasy value for Mercer. It should be safe to expect a repeat of last year (mediocre AVG, little speed & 10-12 HR).
23) Brandon Crawford
Projection: .248/.336/.397 14 HR 60 RBI 55 R 6 SB
The good news is that Crawford has gradually gotten better as a hitter since making his debut in 2011. He has gradually hit for more power and has gotten more selective at the plate. Even with this improvement, his numbers aren’t that great and his defense makes him someone that is more valuable in real-life than in fantasy.
22) Wilmer Flores
Projection: .279/.320/.432 14 HR 55 RBI 50 R 2 SB
For the time being, Flores is the Mets starting shortstop and any changes to this status could take him off the rankings. Flores may have struggled in his 274 PA last year (88 wRC+) but I think he could make some progress given the chance next year. His BABIP was at .265 and even modest improvement in this should give him a decent batting average. He did show some modest power as well, indicating that double digit HR total is realistic.
21) Jean Segura
Projection: .268/.309/.370 7 HR 45 RBI 55 R 21 SB
With Segura, the primary question is whether we will see performance replicating 2013 which inflated his fantasy stock or are we going to see the 2014 version that struggled to generate much offense? While I think Segura’s numbers will see some improvement, expecting a repeat of 2013 seems too much to expect. On the bright side, he still should help in the SB category.
20) Andrelton Simmons
Projection: .265/.308/.397 13 HR 55 RBI 55 R 7 SB
If advanced defensive metrics were a standard fantasy category, Simmons would likely be much higher on this list. As it currently stands, his command of hitting opposing pitching has been pretty weak. While he could possibly provide double-digit power, his performance has decreased the last two seasons.
19) Brad Miller
Projection: .257/.329/.432 16 HR 55 RBI 60 R 7 SB
Miller is a player that has sleeper potential. While I don’t think his AVG is going to be strong, I think that there is at least improvement from the .221 he hit last year (his BABIP was 26 points lower in 2014 than it was in 2013). I also think that he is capable of taking another step forward in the power department. 15+ HR from Miller isn’t out of the question.
18) Everth Cabrera
Projection: .253/.312/.329 2 HR 45 RBI 70 R 33 SB
Yes, there is a one category upside with Stolen Bases. Beyond that, you have an injury prone hitter with a mediocre batting average & little power.
17) J.J. Hardy
Projection: .267/.310/.424 19 HR 65 RBI 65 R 1 SB
At the very least, Hardy should bounce back from the power outage that his bat experienced last year. That being said, his days of being a threat to hit 25 HR have come and gone.
16) Jhonny Peralta
Projection: .264/.334/.430 17 HR 70 RBI 60 R 3 SB
Peralta’s batting average should stay steady with where it was last year. I think there’s a bit of a decrease in HR total as his HR/FB rate last year 12.4% was the highest he displayed since 2008.
15) Chris Owings
Projection: .273/.315/.414 10 HR 60 RBI 65 R 16 SB
Owings got his first extended look in the majors. While he had a below average wRC+ (92), he did demonstrate the ability to hit for some moderate power & steal some bases. If he does get full-time playing time, he could possibly break into double figures in these areas.
14) Alcides Escobar
Projection: .276/.311/.377 2 HR 45 RBI 70 R 33 SB
While I think Escobar will hit for a respectable AVG in the coming year and he should be a solid source for stolen bases, his lack of power hitting ability prevents him from being much higher in these rankings.
13) Javier Baez
Projection: .209/.271/.382 27 HR 75 RBI 80 R 21 SB
Last weekend, my wife and I rented the movie Let’s Be Cops on Redbox. While we spent much of the time laughing hysterically during the movie, we were also making comments about how terrible this movie was while laughing.
In a way, I see the Javier Baez as the Fantasy Baseball equivalent to this movie which was terrible and awesome at the same time. The terrible side is that he has not yet proven he can hit for a high batting average and he’s likely going to struggle with his battle with the Mendoza Line in 2015. The awesome side is that his power appears to be real and that he could also be on track to contribute in the Stolen Bases department. Given a full-season of playing time, a 20/20 season is very realistic. For being an even mix of good and not so good, Baez earns himself a spot squarely in the middle of my early rankings.
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