I’m going out on a limb here, but as a Kiwi I’m going to say this now and have it on record: The All Blacks are not going to win the Rugby World Cup 2015. In fact, I believe they’re going to return to their usual form and choke in the quarters. Further, I am categorically saying now, South Africa will win the Rugby World Cup.
Now this is at the very least a controversial statement (especially when you live here). I do however believe that the All Blacks have made a number of tactical blunders, and in simple terms the Springboks appear to be emerging as the form team for next year.
Will The All Blacks Win Rugby World Cup 2015?
Firstly, and I’m going to get a lot of flak for this statement: Richie McCaw is too old. Is he a great leader? Yes. Is he an inspiration? Definitely. Is he one of the most well known, and I dare say well respected names in world rugby? That may be the subject of some debate, McCaw is however a man of great pedigree. The issue lies in the fact that McCaw has been in the game so long he has simply passed his use by date. Yes Jean De Villiers, McCaw’s contemporary in the Boks, is around the same age as McCaw and has played a comparable number of tests. The Boks as a unit though look younger, fresher and hungrier when compared to the All Blacks squad.
The Springboks are also a team that realistically has nothing to lose. They are firmly entrenched in the number two spot in World Rugby’s rankings, ahead of Ireland and England. To be fair, I must admit Ireland and England are solid units in themselves, and both teams could themselves mount a credible attack on the Webb-Ellis trophy next year. Australia on the other hand appears to be going out of its way to hamstring themselves.
Once a rugby powerhouse, the Wallabies are seemingly locked in a terminal death spiral that doesn’t yet seem to show any signs of abating. Between internal management issues, players creating controversy off field, or not being correctly utilised on field (how the ARU decided to give Kurtley Beale the start over Bernard Foley earlier this season I will never know) has created an ever imploding network of failure that looks destined to doom the green and gold boys before they even touch the hallowed turf of Twickenham. The ARU needs to take care of a lot of buisiness in their backyard, and soon, if they’re going to arrest this slump, and right now they do not look like a team that could convincingly stand up against the Springboks, or any of the teams above them in the rankings.
As an aside, I will also predict now that France is going to leapfrog Australia in the World Rugby rankings by the end of 2015.
South Africa has developed well over the last couple of years, their game has matured, their team has solidified, and the Springboks as a whole seem to have evolved. Conversely, the All Blacks are playing the same game they played in 2011. Almost play for play the same. Rugby at any level has to be a dynamic sport, brute strength can only take you so far. Yes, the All Blacks have an imposing line up, and a lot of people will be eagerly awaiting seeing the mighty All Black machine come rumbling to life in 2015. I believe however that the engine needs a massive tune up, and it needs a lot of replacement parts, if it is going to be a competitor next year. The issue there being Steve Tew, Steve Hansen and in fact most of the leadership of the NZRU are choosing teams based on nostalgia and loyalty. Or worse, based on who can bring in the most coin to the coffers (yes I lump Sonny Bill Williams into this group). Nostalgia, Loyalty and brand names looks great from a sponsorship perspective. Sonny Bill Williams is going to sell a lot of merchandise. Richie McCaw is going to convince an entire generation of children to lace up the boots and throw a ball around. Dan Carter is going to have a massive number of 6 year olds standing quizzically in front of the posts trying to figure out how the hell he managed to do what he did with the ball. The key word in that sentence though is did.
The NZRU is squandering the opportunity to bring through younger players with the work ethic to make great All Blacks. Player like Callum Gibbins – who thankfully has finally been given a Hurricanes contract – would be ideal in a black jersey next year. Joe Webber, Blade Thompson, and James Lowe could also provide some much needed young blood in the team. Instead we’re likely to field a team that, in some cases, are about to embark on their fourth Rugby World Cup campaign. Persistance is good. There does come a point though where it gives way to foolishness. Brian O’Driscoll has hung up the boots, Johnny Wilkinson has stepped down, Sebastien Chabal has bowed out with honour, Stirling Mortlock is gone, even perennial hardman Mike Tindall has moved on. many of the current squad of All Blacks have faced these players, and are still now in the side getting ready to face younger, fitter and more able opponents. The bottom line for my money is this: If the NZRU doesn’t start putting some of the old warhorses out to pasture soon, the All Blacks are going to start losing, and start losing consistently in key matches.
Nostalgia and loyalty are going to cost the All Blacks the Rugby World Cup next year. My final thought is the big prediction: South Africa will beat France to win the Rugby World Cup 2015, what’s more I’m putting money on it.
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