So far during the 2014-2015 offseason there have been a number of big name deals. Players such as Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, and Nelson Cruz have signed via free agency and stars like Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, and Justin Upton have all been traded to the Padres. However, every offseason there are players who teams hope turn out to be diamonds in the rough and sign to either cheap major league deals or in the case of some established veterans past their prime, minor league deals. So far this off-season there have been a number of these such signings with three that stand out to me for their potential.
2015 MLB Diamonds in the Rough
The “safest” of these upside signings so far would be the Royals’ addition of SP Kris Medlen. The 29 year-old right-hander signed a two year $8.5 million contract with a mutual option for 2017. Medlen is coming off the second Tommy John surgery of his career and likely may not return to the mound until the middle of the 2015 season. In 2012 and 2013 Medlen was one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball with 25 wins over the two seasons while striking around 7.5 batters per nine innings and walking around two. For the Royals next season Medlen’s role is unclear. The Royals also signed Edinson Volquez to add to their rotation that features Yordano Ventura, Jason Vargas, Jeremy Guthrie, and Danny Duffy returning from a year ago. However, when healthy Medlen is a much better option than Volquez and Duffy and if he returns to his old levels of success he will replace one of those two in the starting rotation upon his return.
Another upside signing was made by the Padres and their aggressive young GM, A.J. Preller. Preller added hardthrowing Brandon Morrow to his overhauled roster signing a one year $2.5 million deal for the righty. This signing makes sense for the Padres as they needed to find cheap options to help fill out their rotation and shows they are buying into Petco’s believed effect on pitchers. Morrow has had an up and down career filled with stretches of injury, wildness, dominance, and a lack of luck. In 2010 and 2011 Morrow struckout more than 10 batters per nine innings, a truly impressive feat. However, likely due to his high walk totals he posted ERAs well over four. However, his FIP in those two seasons was in the mid-threes which is used to show the pitchers true talent combining K’s, BB’s, and HR’s. In 2012 Morrow, reduced his strikeout totals but also lowered his walks and saw his ERA drop below 3 for the first time in his career. 2013, saw similar numbers with walks and strikeouts however, he gave up almost 2 HR/9 which caused his ERA to spike once again. 2014 was an injury riddles season as Morrow only made six starts and threw 33 innings. His velocity seems to still be holding true based in comparison to his most dominant seasons and his Contact% did drop in 2014 compared to 2013 so that could signal that the stuff that made him an elite strikeout pitcher is still there. The friendly confines of Petco could also help to lower his HR/9 totals which averages out to about one for his career. If Morrow can return to what he was and stay healthy A.J. Preller made have found himself a diamond in the rough.
The biggest stretch and prayer signing of the off-season thus far is the Nationals addition of Dan Uggla. Washington signed the second baseman to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training. Uggla has been bad-really bad- in the past two seasons hitting below .200 in each of the seasons. However, prior to those two season Uggla was an above average offensive player with a wRC+ of above 100 in each of his first seven seasons. The second baseman was known for his power including more than 30 homers in five straight seasons. Although he did not have a full season worth of plate appearances Uggla’s Contact% rose and found itself near his career average and his swinging strike% dropped to close to his 2012 number a season when he was worth 3.3 WAR. The Nationals currently have Danny Espinosa pencilled in at second base and he has struggled at the plate he past few seasons. The Nats could look to add another option at second before the season begins but the signing of Uggla is taking a cheap bet on a guy who has the upside to change a lineup.
All three of these players are cheap investments of guys with various past levels of success and detractors of injury of poor performance. However, these teams are taking chances on these guys and hoping that the value added by the players in significant in comparison to the money invested.
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