Expectations are awfully high in Knoxville these days. The Tennessee Volunteer football program is bowl eligible for the first time in four years. Head Coach Butch Jones has another Top-5 recruiting class lined up for national signing day. The regular season provided some much needed signs of progress from a program still dealing with five years of turmoil. In one of the more surprising pairings of this year’s Bowl Selection process, Tennessee finds itself in the Taxslayer Bowl in Jacksonville matched up against the Iowa Hawkeyes, a quality Big 10 opponent. In a season of growth and progress filled with ups and downs, Tennessee has another chance to make a strong statement for the future of the program. That is just one of the many storylines surrounding this game.
Many of these storylines revolve around the stark differences between these two teams; conservative and steady Iowa contrasted against brash and inconsistent Tennessee. Iowa is coming from the Big 10 and trying to make a statement against an SEC team. Iowa’s program has been steady under Head Coach Kirk Ferentz. Tennessee has been in a constant state of turmoil since Phillip Fulmer’s last year, going through four coaches in a six-year span. Tennessee fans were having nightmares as reports indicated Michigan making a run at Butch Jones two weeks ago. This game really is a tale of two programs; a contrast in styles. Let’s take a closer look at the 2014 Taxslayer Bowl Preview by examining several storylines that will preview the game and speak to the implications of this match-up.
Game Information:
The Taxslayer Bowl, EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL
January 2nd, 2015, 3:20 p.m., EST, ESPN
Line: TENN (-3.5), O/U 51.5 (Fantasy911.com)
The first contrast is the most obvious and the most pertinent to the game itself. Iowa is a traditional Big 10 team, with excellent size on the offensive line and a power running game and a solid team defense. Tennessee, with talent and athleticism, is undersized and still learning and implementing many of their systems. It will be a traditional size v. speed, running v. spread, ball control v. attacking game.
When Iowa has the Ball: That line features consensus All-American and Outland Trophy winner Brandon Scherff at offensive tackle. Senior running back Mark Weisman has over 800 yards rushing this season and should see the majority of carries in Jacksonville. And Junior quarterback Jake Rudock will return to his home state with a solid 2014 campaign under his belt. Rudock passed for 2404 yards and a decent 16 TDs-to-5 INT ratio. Rudock improved significantly this year, most notably cutting his interceptions from 13 last year to just five this year. While not a real dual threat option, Rudock does have the ability to pick up a few yards if he has a lane. Expect Iowa to run early and often between the tackles to wear down Tennessee’s athletic but undersized defense. With A.J. Johnson not expected back for the Vols, Iowa will try to exploit the size difference up front and will build their second-half game plan around that. If Iowa has success, they will continue to wear down Tennessee’s undersized and short-on-depth defensive linemen and linebackers. The much anticipated Scherff-Barnett match-up greatly favors Iowa in the running game; not so much in the passing game. Iowa will most likely use the inside running game to set up play-action passes and utilize slot receivers and tight ends over the middle. Iowa will likely avoid challenging Tennessee’s secondary on the outside and deep, unless Tennessee commits the safeties to stop the run. Tennessee’s athleticism and speed should also prevent outside run success, unless the linebackers can’t handle the repeated inside runs. The match-up on this side of the ball will come down to Tennessee’s toughness, depth, and durability.
When Tennessee has the Ball: Iowa’s defense is less talked about, but has performed better than the Hawkeye offense this year, statistically speaking. The Hawkeyes are giving up 24 points per game, which ranks them 39th nationally. They are a solid group that plays great team defense. Tennessee’s offensive line – as it has been all season – will be the biggest question mark entering the contest. If they can provide quarterback Josh Dobbs time and can open a few holes for Dobbs and freshman running back Jalen Hurd, the Vols should be able to move the ball effectively. The Vols, even with several injured receivers, will still have the advantage in the passing game. Look for Hurd and Dobbs to run early to establish tempo; as the offense makes one or two first downs, the Tennessee offense will then utilize screens and short-ins to free up the second level of defense. If Dobbs can consistently get the ball to the receivers on the outside and the tight ends over the middle, that will open up both the deep routes and the running game. With the Iowa ball control offense, Dobbs cannot afford any turnovers. With an extra month of practice under his belt, expect Dobbs to manage the offense better. Again, the key to the Vols offensive success will be the line’s ability to handle the Iowa defensive line especially in pass protection.
Special Teams: This is the one area where the teams are nearly equal. Tennessee’s return teams and punt game are probably slightly better than Iowa and Iowa’s field goal team and coverage teams are probably slightly better than Tennessee’s. This is about as even of a match-up as you will find. Tennessee’s return team does have the ability to break a big return.
Season Results: Iowa’s season has been largely disappointing for Hawkeye fans. A terrible loss to Iowa State set an early tone in week three. Iowa then won five of seven to provide fans with some hope of winning of the Big 10 West, although one of those losses was a crushing 51-14 beat down at Minnesota. Iowa’s hopes for a divisional title were dashed with back-to-back losses to Wisconsin and Nebraska, although both of those losses were by a combined total of five points. For Iowa fans, it seems like their best games of the season, Wisconsin and Nebraska, were losses. Add to that the angst over losing to Iowa State, at home no less, and the Hawkeye faithful feel like they can’t catch a break this season.
Tennessee’s season has been a continuation of the Jones rebuilding program at Tennessee. Early struggles against Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and Alabama, a near miss at Georgia and gut-wrenching loss at home to Florida (similar to Iowa’s loss to Iowa State) are distant memories for Vol fans. Those fans are focused more on the return to normalcy in November by beating Kentucky and Vanderbilt and the thrilling fourth-quarter comeback against South Carolina, thought to be Josh Dobbs’ Tennessee coming out party. The coaching staff hasn’t looked back on Dobbs for the remainder of the year and the offense has looked better since the South Carolina game. At 6-6, Vol fans are a little more confident about their program than they probably should be as evidenced by the Missouri loss. This team is certainly better than the one that started the season; it’s even better than the team that traveled to Norman and Oxford. But is it good enough to beat a quality 7-5 Iowa team with two close losses to Top 25 teams Nebraska and Wisconsin?
Prediction: Tennessee’s young offense and undersized, undermanned defense both benefit greatly from the extended break and from the extra December practices. The nice weather will help the Jones’ technical offensive scheme and the bowl atmosphere – a big game without the pressure of a Florida or Alabama rivalry – will be good for the young Volunteers. The Tennessee players, program and fans are excited about where they are; Iowa, coming off a disappointing season, another long bowl journey to Florida, and remembering last year’s 21-14 loss to LSU in the Outback Bowl, are less excited. Expect the Vols defense to play bigger than their size and the offense to get in a rhythm early and ride that to several scores. Iowa is a quality team but presses to make up ground in the second half and has a couple of costly turnovers. In the end, Tennessee validates its selection to the bowl with a convincing, quality win that sets the stage for a very important off season.
Tennessee 38, Iowa 24
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