We’ve reached the portion of the offseason where most of the big-name free agents are off the board. The Jon Lester’s and Hanley Ramirez’s of the world have been signed, and while (as of this writing) Max Scherzer and James Shields are still out there, it stands to reason that most of the marquee moves will be trades. Just look at the roller coaster ride that A.J Preller is on, or the Martin Prado/Nathan Eovaldi swap.
However, there’s still a wealth of relievers on the market. Free agent relievers aren’t the sexiest signings unless we’re talking about elite names like David Robertson and Andrew Miller. And that’s a shame! Perhaps it’s my baseball geekiness speaking, but the wonderful world of relief pitching is utterly fascinating. It’s a dynamic of the game that doesn’t attract very much discussion outside of closers, hydras, NBA-sized rookies, and the Los Angeles Dodgers. So let’s go down the rabbit-hole, shall we?
Free Agent Relievers Can Be Exciting, Too
The Actually Valuable “Closers”
The real “prizes” of the remaining relief market are late-inning types such as Francisco Rodriguez (“K-Rod”), Jason Grilli. However, almost every team (or every team in a position on the win curve that they can afford to sink money into a closer, for that matter) already has someone in that role. Pitching development has reached the point where almost every farm system has a couple of live arms kicking around that can hit 97 mph, and if they can learn control and an effective secondary pitch they’re potential closing material. This is what separates the Hunter Strickland-types from Dellin Betances.
Entering the offseason, there were only about three potential contenders with question marks at the back of their bullpens: the Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Tigers. Even among them, none of the three have no immediate solution. The Dodgers have one of the best closers in the game in Kenley Jansen, but almost nothing in the way of set-up support. The Jays lost Janssen to free agency, and while they could use Brett Cecil or wunderkind Aaron Sanchez in the 9th, a sure-handed vet could be useful. And the Tigers actually have their 8th and 9th inning men in Joaquim Soria and Joe Nathan, but it’s not hard to see that an upgrade could be helpful to push one of them back a slot and offset the less-than-ideal early relief options. There’s a couple of land mines out there that have closing experience, but these two are the ones that are genuinely worth investing in.
- Francisco Rodriguez, RHP
The man they call “K-Rod” was actually sub-replacement level in 2014, despite a 3.04 ERA and 44 saves for the Brewers. The issue was a newly developed home run bugaboo that really reared its ugly head in the second half. While on the whole season his HR/9 was an unsightly 1.81, post-All Star break it was a 2.73 (!) mark. Pitch F/X also says he lost nearly a MPH off all his pitches except his curveball between 2013 and 2014 as well. Those home run issues led to a 4.50 FIP, but xFIP felt he was simply getting unlucky and gave him a 2.91 grade. In turn, Steamer projects him to have a much better 3.43 FIP next year. K-Rod may have simply had some bad luck this year, but if this is a product of age and fatigue setting in, he may be a better signing for a set-up role.
- Jason Grilli, RHP
Grilli was the beneficiary of a change-of-scenery trade to Anaheim Los Angeles in 2014, and he showed that he’s still got it. A 5.39 FIP with the Pirates became a 2.15 FIP with the Angels, and a 4.9 BB/9 became a 2.7. Grilli was a quality reliever again, and his overall FIP of 3.37 says that there’s no reason to think that he won’t be at least solid in 2015. He’ll be 38 in 2015, and naturally the decreases in velocity that come with age are a reality. However, he should be a pretty safe bet on a one-year deal, and not a disaster on the two-year deal he’ll end up getting.
The Ones You Probably Won’t Regret
The thing is, a good closer isn’t all that useful if you can’t build a bridge to him. There are still plenty of building blocks on the market, but who to sign? As we all know, relievers have a tendency to suddenly burst into flames and lose their effectiveness. It happens, it’s a thing we have to live with. But there are some relievers that look like better bets than others, so in case any GM out there is looking to take advice from little ol’ me, here are some names to keep an eye on.
- Burke Badenhop, RHP
The man with the 80-grade name enters free agency after a very solid season with the Red Sox. Over 70.2 IP, Badenhop pitched to a 2.29 ERA and 61% ground ball rate. It doesn’t seem that there’s any real smoke and mirrors to Badenhop’s success this year. He sported a FIP of 3.08, which while far from his ERA is still a very acceptable mark. In fact, his FIP has decreased each of his last three seasons. Badenhop doesn’t strike out a ton of guys (a 5.09 K/9 in 2014), but his ability to induce grounders should be appealing to teams with a strong infield defense. According to Brooks Baseball, his velocity has actually gone up slightly over the last three years, so suitors shouldn’t be too worried about a massive decrease in production going into Badenhop’s age-32 season. Badenhop is also a fervent student of Pitch F/X data, and uses it to help him improve his approach.
- Tom Gorzelanny, LHP
Gorzelanny is strictly a LOOGY, but it’s a role he’s excelled at. Gorzelanny owned a sparkling 0.86 ERA (2.99 FIP) in 2014 over 21.0 IP. He opened the season on the DL while recovering from shoulder surgery, though, and wasn’t activated until June 14th. While Gorzelanny pitched well when he was activated, teams will probably be wary of a pitcher entering his age-32 season with a recent shoulder issue. We also shouldn’t expect to see Gorzelanny maintain a sub-1 ERA, and his FIP will likely also increase in the coming season as well. Small sample sizes will break your heart. Nonetheless, Gorzelanny should be a fair option for a team in need of a lefty specialist and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get a two-year deal.
- Tim Stauffer, RHP
Raise your hand if you’re not familiar with Stauffer. It’s okay if you aren’t, folks. Stauffer’s spent his career thus far in San Diego, and as the team’s been something of an also-ran for an extended period of time, it’s understandable that you may not know many of their relievers outside of the recently traded Huston Street. Stauffer was actually a starter for a while, but injuries forced him into full-time relief in 2013. He’s been an erstwhile presence in that capacity, and managed a 3.50 ERA in 64.1 IP this year. His 1.40 WHIP is a little scary, but that may be the result of a 3.55 BABIP that should come down to a good capacity moving forward. Interestingly enough, Stauffer has a reverse platoon split. For his career lefties have a .312 wOBA, while righties have a .325. That was even more stratified this year when those two marks were .297 and .343, respectively. Stauffer doesn’t throw especially hard (he averaged 91 MPH on his fastball this year) and his velocity has started to trend downward, but he should remain a serviceable presence for the next few years. It’s not a sexy profile, and he probably shouldn’t be put into a setup role. But it’s good enough for middle relief, and that can be hard to come by on the market.
The Ones That Will Be A Roll of the Dice
- Neal Cotts, LHP
So Neal Cotts has been really good in the past! In 2013, he had a 2.17 FIP and a 1.11 ERA! From a lefty? Sign me up. The thing is, Neal Cotts has also been really bad in the past. In fact, his stats page on Fangraphs is a bit of a trip. He’s been brilliant, and he’s been AAA depth. He’s also going to be 35 next year, and that’s not going to help matters. There’s also the matter that Cotts had one of his bad years in 2014. He pitched to a 4.32 ERA, his K rate fell, his walk rate rose, his home run rate rose. It wasn’t entirely terrible for him, as FIP (3.58) still liked his work somewhat. Cotts isn’t someone to entirely avoid, but it helps if you already have some depth in your relief corps if you’re going to sign him.
- Rafael Soriano, RHP
But Nick, you already did your section on closers! Here’s what you need to know about Soriano: in the first half of 2014, he had a 0.97 ERA, and in the second he had a 6.48. In the first half of the season, opposing batters slugged .226. In the second half, they slugged .505. In the second half of the season, opposing batters knocked him around to the tune of a .375 wOBA. For a bit of context, Matt Kemp had a .506 slugging percentage this year (12th among qualified batters) and Freddie Freeman had a .374 wOBA (14th among qualified batters). Basically, Soriano should not be closing games anymore. There wasn’t any significant loss of velocity in Soriano’s arsenal as the year progressed, which means this was probably a control issue. I could do an entire article trying to pick apart Soriano’s implosion, but for the purposes of this piece, I’ll say that Soriano is worth taking a flyer on and seeing what he does in Spring Training, but don’t plan to have him anywhere near the closer’s role just yet.
- Joba Chamberlain, RHP
The former Yankees super-prospect has certainly fallen from grace, and in his first year outside of pinstripes, had a Soriano-esuqe tale of two halves. Joba was pretty great in the first half, and pretty not great in the second. It’s really a matter of how much you’re willing to buy into what he’s selling. Unlike Soriano, Joba still has a bit of youth left in him, and could benefit from some work with a good pitching coach. Sounds like a job for either of the Chicago clubs, perhaps?
- Phil Coke, LHP.
Phil Coke may be the most infuriating pitcher to have on the roster of a team you’re a fan of. His full-season stats are disturbingly mediocre, but every time Coke is on the mound you brace yourself for the worst. He’s not the biggest inducer of strikeouts, and he walks more guys than you would like. He’s an alright option to handle a lefty, but don’t you dare let him within a country mile of a right-hander. I felt genuinely bad when the Tigers didn’t have anyone better to turn to. It got ugly.
The Ones that Are Exactly What They Look Like
- Casey Janssen, RHP
Janssen’s velocity is gone, and his FIP has gone up to reflect that anymore. He doesn’t induce a ton of strikeouts (5.52 K/9 in 2014) and because he doesn’t throw heat, his pitches are easier to tee up now (1.18 HR/9). His 3.94 ERA was supported by his 4.14 FIP, it’s unlikely he returns to his 2011-2013 run of success. Janssen had a fun ride, but the show looks like it’s over. He should be a halfway decent bottom-of-the-depth chart reliever, but woe on the team that hires him to close.
- John Axford, RHP
It seems that ever since he lost his closer’s job with the Brewers, teams have been trying to conjure up John Axford’s old magic. Unfortunately, it’s not going to happen. Axford still racks up the K’s, but he also walks way too many and surrenders the long ball. He’s had a 4.34 FIP for two years running now, and has been below replacement level both years as well. We can all keep dreaming on Axford, but he seems damned to journeyman status now. Such a shame.
Just Don’t Do It
- Chris Perez, RHP
Whether it’s having pot mailed to his dog or posting FIP marks north of 5.00 in his last two seasons, Chris Perez is just disappointing. Almost as disappointing as the 46.1 innings the Dodgers saw fit to hand to a reliever who finished the year with a 4.86 BB/9. Aren’t we all glad that the Ned Colletti era is through? Well, unless you’re a fan of a non-Los Angeles team in the NL West. That may be a bit disappointing too. A sizable portion of the relief market falls into this category, but I won’t waste valuable pixels telling you why signing Heath Bell, or the corpses of Matt Lindstrom or Sergio Santos is a poor choice. You already know that. I just have a sickening sense that some poor sap is going to hand Chris Perez a major-league deal.
Anyways, that’s your rundown of some of the more interesting free agent options. Relief pitching isn’t the quickest way to add value to a team, but it sure can turn ugly very quickly. If a team has the necessary disposable income, why not invest in a bullpen?
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