The 2014 Major League Baseball off=season has been nothing less than eventful. Record deals and entire team swaps are only but a few points thus far. So what exactly is left? A whole lot. With the Cubs signing of one of the biggest free agents this year in Jon Lester, things just got a thousand times more interesting. In an agent’s world, the $155 million Lester deal created leverage in some way or another for star pitchers Max Scherzer and Jaime Shields. Out of these three tremendous arms, Scherzer has the stats and hardware to prove his worth as the best starting pitcher in this year’s free agent crop. A Cy-Young award winner who nearly had back-to-back 20 win seasons, Scherzer is a big time gun, but is he worth $200 million? The lavishly notorious offer made by Scott Boras this year can possibly put James Shields in an even better spot for a big-time signing.
Free Agent Head to Head: Scherzer v. Shields
There is no doubt in anyone’s mind that if these two pitchers were to ask for identical deals, that Scherzer would be the first to sign. Nonetheless let’s take a glance at the numbers to get the inside look on how these pitchers sum up head-to-head.
Including the postseason, James Shields has thrown a career total of 30,444 pitches with 1,999.2 innings pitched which adds up to 15.456 pitches per inning. Max Scherzer’s career line sums up to 21,930 pitches thrown while tossing 1,302.0 innings to equal 16.843 pitches per inning. With nearly 700 more innings thrown than Scherzer, James Shields has proven his ability to perform efficiently per inning throughout his career.
Another stat to take notice upon is velocity. Scherzer does out throw Shields with a 95 mile per hour fastball but since 2011, Shields velocity has increased by 1.6 mph according to FanGraphs.com. Although Shields is 32 years old, his exponential increase in fastball velocity combined with his durable reputation as pitcher offers teams a less expensive alternative to Scherzer who is seeking a huge amount for his talent.
In reality what it comes down to is what kind of pitcher does an organization need. Is it a team like the Diamondbacks who are desperate for an all-star ace? Or teams like San Francisco and St. Louis who just need a strong dependable top of the rotation guy. I’m sure all 30 teams would love to put Scherzer on their staff but when General Managers are so desperately trying to manage payrolls and plan for the future, Shields looks like more of a viable option. Other tangibles to look into are what type of pitchers these two men are. Scherzer who is a powerful strikeout pitcher also generates plenty of fly balls, better suited for a bigger park. In contrast, Shields relies on his change up and splitter to get ground ball outs and the occasional strikeout.
Others might argue that the most important factor to look into is a player’s postseason performance. Both pitchers have just about equal innings pitched and games played in their post season career. Although Scherzer had a rough outing in his last appearance in the 2014 playoffs he holds a 3.73 career postseason ERA compared to Shields’ 5.46 ERA. It seems as though James Shields numbers leading up to the fall classic deteriorate which does effect his market potential, but judging off Kansas City’s run last year, Shields was a key reason why they even reached the playoffs to begin with. These are also the ultimate in small sample sizes, and if one subscribes to the Sabrmetric approach that there is no such thing as “clutch”, focusing on these post-season stats may be foolhardy.
Max Scherzer may be younger and so far a tad more consistent, but James Shields has him beat in one of the most important categories in sports; leadership. This quality can not be measured by numbers or computers and is a character trait that only few possess to the extent that Shields does. All reports are that James Shields has been nothing but a positive force in the clubhouse dating back to his days in Tampa and it doesn’t look like he is stopping anytime soon. After singing with the Royals in 2013, Shields immediately created a winning culture with his high energy and charismatic presence. He took the helm of young small market pitching staffs in Tampa and in Kansas City and lead both teams to World Series appearances. Every franchise foams at the mouth for a guy like Shields who is a presence in the locker room and ensures that all their players never lose their drive or motivation. The fire and intensity that Shields creates in himself and teammates is an imperceptible trait that has given him respect around the league. However the question that needs to be asked is, “Does this translate to more wins for the team that signs Shields when he is not on the mound?” Numerous studies have been done, and the numbers seem to suggest this leadership characteristic is more a false narrative than effect on wins and losses. Yet, just like Scherzer’s supposed clutch ability it will be brought up.
At the end of the day though, it comes down to value for the money. The expensive price tag on Scherzer has to have brought some general managers to the realization that other options on the market may be a smarter move. Scherzer is the top dog but Shields is nothing short of a reliable fall back option for just about half the price. Both pitchers have their pros and cons but at the end of the day teams seeking a pitcher must pick their poison; one of the best right-handers in the league who is outrageously expensive, or a dependable workhorse who can lead a team to the postseason. It may be a very quiet off season for these two thus far, but look for their signing to immediately effect next year’s World Series favorites.
Thank you for reading. Support LWOS by following us on Twitter – @LastWordOnSport and @LWOSworld – and “liking” our Facebook page.
Have you tuned into Last Word On Sports Radio? LWOS is pleased to bring you 24/7 sports radio to your PC, laptop, tablet or smartphone. What are you waiting for?
