Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6)
December 26, 4:30 PM ET, ESPN, Line: UNC -3, O/U 66.5
The North Carolina Tar Heels will head up to Detroit to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in the Quick Lane Bowl. This will be the gridiron version of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge that has been must-see early season action in basketball for 15 years.
This and the Pinstripe Bowl will be the only matchups of ACC vs. Big Ten this postseason. The two conferences each got a team into the first College Football Playoff, but have struggled recently to keep up with the SEC and PAC-12 in football pecking order. The Big Ten has posted some abysmal bowl seasons in the last few years, boasting a mediocre sub .500 bowl record for several years in a row.
Rutgers, along with Maryland, made its debut in the Big Ten Conference this season. The Knights had to play all three of the tougher teams in the conference: Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. They only got one of these games in New Jersey, which was Wisconsin. Their second half included trips to Columbus, Lincoln, and East Lansing. Rutgers was thrown into the fire in their inaugural season and came away with seven overall wins.
After starting 5-1, the Knights managed to tack on two second half wins to get bowl eligible for the fourth year in a row. Moving up in competition from the American Athletic Conference to the Big Ten put them in higher profile games, including their biggest win of the year at home versus Michigan.
North Carolina had a first half they would like to forget about as well. After bottoming out at 2-4, with three games of giving up at least 50 points, the Heels reversed their fortune and finished 4-2.
After a preseason with such high hopes, including a national ranking, the Tar Heels have fallen into the second tier of the ACC bowls. In a crapshoot division like the ACC Coastal, UNC became another face in the crowd of 6-6 teams.
Both teams have a chance to finish strong in a game that’ll be offense galore. In the comfy confines of Ford Field both teams can access their aerial attack, simultaneously exploiting the others’ weakness. Neither secondary can hold up when the offense spreads the field.
Why should you watch?
Simply put: points. There will be points, and they’ll come fast and furiously. Sure, both teams will load up all their players, defense and all, and make the trip to the Motor City, but the offenses will make the most impact on the game. The defensive sides of the ball will be placeholders grabbing and clawing at receivers as they speed by.
This is projected to be one of the higher scoring bowls this season. With a current over/under of 66.5, only three bowls with all Power Five teams involved have higher scoring predictions. The highest over/under is the Rose Bowl at 72.5.
With the Knights and Heels being 92 and 119, respectively, in PPG against, it’ll be a miracle if either team keeps the other in the 30’s.
I’m leaning Rutgers in this one… barely. One simple reason is that I’ve picked against UNC several bowl seasons in a row, and sooner or later I have to be right. I thought Cincinnati would get the better of them in the Belk Bowl last season, and somehow the boys from Chapel Hill blew them out.
I’m thinking the UNC team that played NC State in their final game shows up, and can’t stop Rutgers quarterback Gary Nova. Both teams have won their share of high-scoring games this season.
UNC did beat a New Year’s Six team in Georgia Tech. All told they beat four bowl eligible teams. Rutgers squeaked two such wins out on the road at Navy and Maryland.
As I typed those last three paragraphs, my lean has turned Carolina blue.
I’ve flip-flopped my opinion on this one more than any other so far, and it’s a tough one to call.
With UNC favored by three, and two bad offensive games in a row highly unlikely, the Heels have the offensive firepower to overwhelm Rutgers. It comes down to how sturdy the UNC defense can be against a team with equal defensive shortcomings.
I’ve talked myself into it; final score prediction: UNC 41 Rutgers 34
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